933954
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2013-12-07
  • 最后登录2018-12-16
  • 粉丝45
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数856
  • 来自
阅读:1841回复:23

[EP]墨西哥以南热带风暴“塔拉”(22E.Tara)

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-10-13 19:04
EP, 98, 2018101306,   , BEST,   0, 159N, 1004W,  25, 1007, LO

图片:20181013.1030.goes-17.ir.98E.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.15.9N.100.4W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1 (1).png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along and off the coast of southern
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur before
Mexico.  This system is drifting toward the west-northwest, and
it moves inland over Mexico this weekend.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-10-15 19:50编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
933954
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2013-12-07
  • 最后登录2018-12-16
  • 粉丝45
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数856
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-10-13 19:25
NHC: 40%/40%
Satellite-derived surface winds and radar data from Acapulco
indicate that a small but well-defined low pressure system has
developed less than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
much better organized overnight, and further development of the low
is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southern coast of
Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of
the expected track would bring the small disturbance and its heavy
rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this
system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

图片:plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2018_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[933954于2018-10-13 19:30编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
三旋共舞
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-02-08
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝9
  • 关注11
  • 发帖数327
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 03:03
NHC: 50%/60%
1. A small, well-defined low pressure system located more than 100
miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west
of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally
conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next
few days while the disturbance moves moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the
expected track would bring the small low and its heavy rains closer
to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico, which
would inhibit further development. Interests in this area should
monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

图片:two_pac_5d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1 (1).png

[三旋共舞于2018-10-14 03:07编辑了帖子]
龙吟恨,且回首,却在灯火阑珊。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
933954
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2013-12-07
  • 最后登录2018-12-16
  • 粉丝45
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数856
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 08:17
NHC: 60%/70% SSD: T1.0
TXPZ23 KNES 140005
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)
B.  13/2345Z
C.  16.4N
D.  101.8W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK
A well-defined low pressure system located about 80 miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is still producing a small but concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable
for development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are
possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to
products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
[933954于2018-10-14 08:21编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝30
  • 关注21
  • 发帖数1246
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 11:08
TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251Z OCT 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 140300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 101.8W TO 17.6N 104.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 101.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 101.8W, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM SOUTH OF MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD MID-LEVEL
TURNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A 141800Z 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE ON A WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9818.gif



WTPN21 PHNC 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 101.8W TO 17.6N 104.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 101.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 101.8W, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM SOUTH OF MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD MID-LEVEL
TURNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A 141800Z 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE ON A WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
NNNN
[炎煌深沉于2018-10-14 12:11编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝30
  • 关注21
  • 发帖数1246
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 19:28
NHC:70%/80%
1. A small low pressure system is located about 200 miles south-
southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has changed little in organization overnight due to
moderate winds aloft.  However, upper-level winds are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development of this disturbance
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by early this week
while the low moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
during the next few days, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
feidele
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2015-03-21
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝104
  • 关注47
  • 发帖数2339
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 22:56
这个可能的22E是否命名TARA。是下周大戏23E的前奏
费德勒 伟大的运动员
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
feidele
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2015-03-21
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝104
  • 关注47
  • 发帖数2339
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 23:33
22E了
费德勒 伟大的运动员
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注41
  • 发帖数1749
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-10-14 23:51
NHC首报上望80KT不封顶
EP, 22, 2018101412,   , BEST,   0, 169N, 1026W,  30, 1006, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  25,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0, TWENTY-TWO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 039, TRANSITIONED, epB82018 to ep222018,

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 141500
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

A small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the
past couple of days has finally acquired enough organized convection
to be designated a tropical depression, which is located less than
100 nmi off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Cloud tops near the
center have recently been as cold as -90C, and satellite intensity
estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on an earlier OSCAT/ScatSat
scatterometer pass that had a few uncontaminated wind vectors
located just north of a well-defined low-level circulation center,
which is similar to yesterday's ASCAT passes.

The initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt. The small cyclone is
forecast by the global and regional models to move only slowly
westward to southwestward at less than 5 kt for the new few days due
to the system being caught in a break in the subtropical ridge that
extends from central Mexico southwestward into the eastern Pacific.
By days 4 and 5, the ridge is forecast to build westward to the
north of the system, acting to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies between
the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The environment is expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
strengthening of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM aren't overly enthused
with intensifying the system, but that is mainly due to the high
shear values calculated from the very poleward TABM beta-advection
model, which recurves the cyclone into strong mid-latitude flow on
days 4 and 5. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps the system farther
south and gradually develops the cyclone into a hurricane by 72 h,
and then continues with slight strengthening beyond that time. Given
that the shear is expected to only be around 10 kt from an easterly
to southeasterly direction and water temperatures near 30 deg C
beneath the small cyclone, some gradual strengthening appears to be
plausible with only some slight land interaction being the primary
modulating factor until the system moves farther away from Mexico in
about 72 h.

Based on the small size of the circulation and its projected motion
away from Mexico, tropical storm warnings and watches are not
required at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right
of the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the
coast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning.
Regardless, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
flash flooding will be a possibility in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.0N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:150216_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



另外Tropical Tidbits居然认为22E是PTC
Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTWO
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 14, 2018:

Location: 16.9°N 102.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 25 NM

图片:22E_tracks_12z.png


图片:22E_intensity_latest.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-10-15 00:59编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-19
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注41
  • 发帖数1749
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-10-15 07:48
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 142033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Although convective activity has decreased since the previous
advisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective
elements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the
low-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all
quadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the
center at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb
pressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate
the intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial
intensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite
intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance
continues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone
slowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next
few days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in
a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from
central Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
and low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to
weaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which
will allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow
south of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a
little north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies
between the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is
somewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The
cyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of
only 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could
occur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt
after 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to
continue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope
conditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional
intrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening
is forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity
forecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:203558_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部