颱風巨爵
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[AL]中美洲94L - 16.0N 89.7W - NHC:40%

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-10-15 01:36
94L INVEST 181014 1800 14.3N 79.2W ATL 20 1009

图片:20181014.1700.goes-16.vis.2km.94L.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.14.3N.79.2W.pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png



2. An area of disturbed weather has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a large low pressure system
located more than 200 miles east-southeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras
border.  Upper-air data indicate that the system has become better
defined over the past couple of days.  However, the surface
circulation remains broad and upper-level winds are expected to be
only marginally favorable for any development to occur while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of
days, reaching Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday or early
Tuesday.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of Central America Tuesday through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[9914dan于2018-10-17 12:45编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-10-15 07:51
NHC:20%/20%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized
in association with a low-latitude tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of French Guiana.  This wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next few days, and development
is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  This system is moving slowly west-northwestward,
and some gradual development is possible before it moves inland over
Central America Monday night or Tuesday.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America for much of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d2.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d2.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-10-15 13:53
NHC:30%/30%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  This system is moving slowly
west-northwestward, and some additional development is possible
before it moves inland over Central America by tonight or Tuesday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause
flash flooding, is possible across portions of Central America for
much of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-10-15 20:01
NHC:40%/40%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are showing
some signs of organization. The system is moving west-northwestward,
and it is possible that it could become a tropical depression before
it moves inland over Central America by Tuesday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash
flooding, is possible across portions of Central America for much of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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颱風巨爵
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4楼#
发布于:2018-10-17 02:15
NHC認為系統將進入東太平洋,稍後或重新編號,數值普遍看好其未來發展。

1. A low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days has now moved inland over southern Belize
and eastern Guatemala. Due to land interaction, tropical cyclone
formation associated with this system is no longer expected in the
Atlantic basin. The southern portion of this disturbance is forecast
to move into the eastern North Pacific by this evening. Gusty winds
will still be possible over portions of Belize and the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and early evening. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png



图片:94L_tracks_latest.png

图片:94L_intensity_latest.png

图片:INVEST94L.2018101606.IR22.png



图片:ecmwf_ow850_epac_fh0-96.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-10-17 02:30编辑了帖子]
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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meow
世纪风王
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5楼#
发布于:2018-10-17 02:35
颱風巨爵锛歂HC認為系統將進入東太平洋,稍後或重新編號,數值普遍看好其未來發展。

1. A low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the p...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
说南侧会出海发展,还不确定要改编或新编。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
327
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6楼#
发布于:2018-10-17 20:00
南侧编99E(图二转)
94L INVEST 181016 1800 16.0N 89.7W ATL 25 1007
99E INVEST 181016 1800 12.9N 87.3W EPAC 15 0
99E INVEST 181017 1200 12.2N 90.5W EPAC 25 1007

图片:20181017.1100.goes-16.ir.99E.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.12.2N.90.5W.100pc.jpg

图片:94L&99E.png

[327于2018-10-17 20:30编辑了帖子]
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