颱風巨爵
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[EP]墨西哥以南热带风暴“韦森特”(23E.Vicente) - 编扰后迅速发展类眼结构,NHC紧急升格

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更多 发布于:2018-10-19 08:57
90E INVEST 181019 0000  13.0N   91.5W EPAC   25  1007

图片:20181019.0030.goes-17.ir.90E.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.12.5N.91W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d2.png

图片:two_pac_5d2.png



2. Another trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-10-25 23:45编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-10-19 13:47
NHC:30%/40%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico has changed very little in
organization during the past several hours.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
in a day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore the coast
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low
pressure system located just south of Guatemala has become more
organized over the past few hours. Some additional development of
this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during
the next few days while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d2.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d2.png

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发布于:2018-10-19 19:51
NHC:70%/80%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, has become a little better organized
overnight.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
centered less than 100 miles off the coast of Guatemala continue to
show signs of organization, and it is possible that a tropical
depression could be forming.  If this trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on this system later today.  This
disturbance is forecast to move generally westward near the coast of
southern Mexico, and interests in that area should monitor the
progress of the low during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d2.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d2.png

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发布于:2018-10-19 20:44
SSD:T4.0(后改为T3.0)
TXPZ25 KNES 191211
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B.  19/1145Z
C.  13.2N
D.  91.8W
E.  ONE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0 AFTER 0.5 SUBTRACTED FOR ANY EYE ADJUSTMENT. 6-HOUR
AVERAGE DT IS 4.1, WHICH DOES JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS
TIME. MET AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    19/0735Z 13.0N 91.8W AMSR2
...KIM

TXPZ25 KNES 191617
TCSENP
CCA
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B. 19/1145Z
C. 13.1N
D. 91.7W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY. THE EMBEDDED CENTER AND THE EYE
PATTERN COULD NOT BE APPLIED FOR THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED HOURLY FOR
THE 6 HRS ENDING AT 1145Z. HOWEVER, THE 6 HR AVERAGE DT IS 3.1, WHICH
JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME. MET AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE
AND FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 19/0735Z 13.0N 91.8W AMSR2
...KIM
[红豆棒冰冰于2018-10-20 01:55编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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发布于:2018-10-19 20:45
TXPZ25 KNES 191211
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B.  19/1145Z
C.  13.2N
D.  91.8W
E.  ONE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0 AFTER 0.5 SUBTRACTED FOR ANY EYE ADJUSTMENT. 6-HOUR
AVERAGE DT IS 4.1, WHICH DOES JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS
TIME. MET AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    19/0735Z 13.0N 91.8W AMSR2

...KIM

图片:goes16_ir_90E_201810191235.jpg



图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_90E_201810191220.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-19 20:47编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-10-19 21:46
TCFA
WTPN22 PHNC 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191421Z OCT 18//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 91.5W TO 14.1N 95.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 91.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2N 91.8W, APPROXIMATELY 65NM SOUTH OF CHAMPERICO, GUATEMALA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190831Z
GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS AND REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 190257Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LLC DOMINATED BY 20 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM HAS
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT
BETWEEN INTENSIFYING THIS SYSTEM AND INTENSIFYING THE NEARBY INVEST
99E. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BOTH SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 191430) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.5W.//
NNNN

图片:ep9018.gif

图片:90E_191400sair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-19 22:02编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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发布于:2018-10-19 22:19
已升格23E
EP, 23, 2018101912, , BEST, 0, 132N, 918W, 25, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 60, 15, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTY-THR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, TRANSITIONED, epD02018 to ep232018,

图片:goes16_vis-swir_90E_201810191420.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-19 22:33编辑了帖子]
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327
327
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发布于:2018-10-19 22:30
Special Message from NHC        Issued 19 Oct 2018 14:19 UTC  
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 23-E, located south of Guatemala, at 10 AM CDT.
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-10-19 23:09
NHC首报上望55KT不封顶
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 191457
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Two distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a
sprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central
America westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico.
The easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up
quickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of
circulation.  Microwave data, first-light visible images, and
valuable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and
increasing convective bands.  Maximum winds are set at 30 kt,
slightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed
structure.

The depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius)
and in a light-shear environment.  These conditions should support
further strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for
intensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity
models.  For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near
the top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum
winds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear.

Since the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is
uncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved
much since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly
west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt.  A strong mid-level ridge spanning
across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the
cyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so.  After day 3,
the ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone
should begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another
low pressure system to the west.  The track models are in good
agreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on
how close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the
forecast period.  Therefore, interests along the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.  Regardless of how close it gets
to the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash
flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 13.3N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 13.7N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 13.5N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 13.3N  96.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 13.8N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:145831_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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meow
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发布于:2018-10-19 23:10
和99E出身同一低压带,惟这个体积小整合快,抢先升格热低23E。
[meow于2018-10-19 23:46编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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