颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[AL]北大西洋二级飓风“奥斯卡”(16L.Oscar) - 副热转暖,环流袖珍,洋中北上 - NHC:90KT

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更多 发布于:2018-10-24 15:30
95L INVEST 181024 0600  19.0N   48.7W ATL   25  1012

图片:20181024.0700.goes-16.ir.95L.INVEST.25kts.1012mb.19N.48.7W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean is associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located more than 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands. This broad low is expected to move slowly northward over
the next few days into an area where environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development. A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-11-01 10:30编辑了帖子]
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    10-24 15:40
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    10-24 15:40
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
炎煌深沉
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1楼#
发布于:2018-10-24 19:52
NHC:30%/60%
1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean is associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a little over 900 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.  This system is expected to move slowly
northward over the next few days into an area where environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development.  A
tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend while
the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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2楼#
发布于:2018-10-24 21:51
(动图)数值普遍支持一定程度的发展

图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-192.gif


图片:gfs_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-144.gif


图片:fv3p_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-168.gif


图片:gem_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-192.gif


图片:navgem_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-144.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2018-10-25 09:40
NHC:40%/70%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad area of low pressure located about
900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.  This system has
become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm
activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined.
This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple
of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or
Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward
well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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4楼#
发布于:2018-10-25 17:20
NHC:60%/80%
1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about 950 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.  This low is expected to move northward
over the next couple of days into an area where upper-level winds
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form on Friday or Saturday.
After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the
north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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5楼#
发布于:2018-10-25 19:45
NHC:70%/80%
1. A low pressure system centered about 900 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better defined and
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization. This low is expected to move generally northward over
the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form by early this weekend. After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the north
or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-25 19:47编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-10-25 20:37
SSD判定副热
TXNT24 KNES 251213
TCSNTL
A.  SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)
B.  25/1145Z
C.  20.9N
D.  48.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  SUBTROPICAL
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...LEE

图片:2018AL95_4KMIRIMG_201810251145.GIF

图片:2018AL95_4KMSRBDC_201810251145.jpg

图片:2018AL95_1KMSRVIS_201810251145.GIF

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7楼#
发布于:2018-10-26 02:07
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system centered nearly 1000 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
since this morning.  However, the low is expected to move generally
northward over the next couple of days into an area where
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form
by early this weekend. After that time, the system is forecast to
turn westward well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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8楼#
发布于:2018-10-26 13:02
NHC:90%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered
about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become more concentrated during the past several hours.  The low is
expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days
into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical
storm is expected to form by early this weekend.  After that time,
the system is forecast to turn westward well to the north or
northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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9楼#
发布于:2018-10-26 17:11
WTNT21 KNGU 251500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 48.5W TO 24.1N 48.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT 251500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 48.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS.
2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 261500Z.
//

图片:al952018.gif

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