颱風巨爵
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科科斯群岛西北热带低压第3号“波奇拉”(04S.Bouchra) - 徘徊十余日终成旋,曾短暂构建底层眼

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更多 发布于:2018-10-31 05:33
93S INVEST 181030 1800 3.0S 82.5E SHEM 20 1007

图片:20181030.2110.himawari-8.ir.93S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.3S.82.5E.100pc.jpg

[327于2018-11-12 22:00编辑了帖子]
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    93S
    10-31 06:30
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    10-31 06:30
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
炎煌深沉
台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-01 19:55
The basin is in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern East of 50°E, axed between 2S and 5S.
Thunderstorm activity is moderate to strong within the NET, especially East of 80E.
The situation did not evolve much over the last 24h, satellite animations still show a closed but
elongated clockwise circulation centered near 4.7S/85.7E. Without recent ASCAT data nor ground
observation nearby, model analysis suggest winds ranging from 15 to 20kt in the area. No
cyclogenesis risk is associated to this circulation, mainly because of a lack of equatorward low-level
convergence and a moderate Northerly wind shear aloft.
Beginning next week, the arrival of an active MJO phase should make the environmental conditions
more conducive for cyclogenesis while other lows could appear within the NET.
Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-04 03:13
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZNOV2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4S
89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1005 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO A FORMATIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE WARM (27-29C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN THE LATE
TAUS AS THE SYSTEM TAKES A MEANDERING TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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炎煌深沉
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3楼#
发布于:2018-11-04 09:31
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4S
89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1005 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO A FORMATIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE WARM (27-29C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN THE LATE
TAUS AS THE SYSTEM TAKES A MEANDERING TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-04 09:34编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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4楼#
发布于:2018-11-04 21:14
Suspect area over the extreme Northeast of the basin:
Over the past 24 hours, strong convective activity has shifted east of the clockwise low pressure
circulation. The last ASCAT swaths do not allow this clockwise circulation to be precisely located,
but it can be estimated at around 4°S/89.2°E at 0900UTC. The minimum pressure is currently
estimated at 1008 hPa and with improving low level convergence, a slow development is expected
in the next few days, while the system should move slowly in a general westerly direction.
Within the next 5 days, the likelihood that this system become a tropical storm becomes low
from Wednesday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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5楼#
发布于:2018-11-05 02:36
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZNOV2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.4S 89.1E IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.6S 71.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 255
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WANING CONVECTION WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION ABOVE AND
AN ELONGATED LLC. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AT A LOW POINT IT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DIURNALLY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY NASCENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (26-28C) IN
THE EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL AGREE ON FORMATION WITHIN THE 24-48 HOUR WINDOW
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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6楼#
发布于:2018-11-06 14:45
JTWC:LOW
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2S 85.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 809 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 052057Z SSMI F-15 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRM THE CIRCULATION IS STILL DISORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AT
AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON
DEVELOPMENT WITH MOST MODELS DISSIPATING IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EQUATOR
AND NAVGEM INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:060515abpwsair.jpg

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renzhetegong
热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-11-10 06:47
93S INVEST 181109 1800 5.2S 90.7E SHEM 25 1004

TPXS11 PGTW 092123
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (NW OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 09/2100Z
C. 5.33S
D. 90.20E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
3.5 DT. MET/PT 2.0. DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (+0.5 OVER 6
HOURS) DUE TO STRONG, PERSISTENT CNVCTVE BANDING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   DAVIS

图片:20181109_2100Z-bd.gif

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


图片:avn_lalo-animated.gif

图片:swir_lalo-animated.gif



图片:20181109.1931.gw1.89pct89h89v.93S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.5.2S.90.7E.90pc.jpg

[renzhetegong于2018-11-10 07:31编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
热带风暴
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8楼#
发布于:2018-11-10 08:48
93S INVEST 181110 0000 4.8S 90.9E SHEM 30 1004

TPXS11 PGTW 100021
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (NW OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 4.57S
D. 90.90E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.0 DT. MET/PT 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   DAVIS

TXXS22 KNES 100022
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93S)
B.  09/2330Z
C.  5.2S
D.  90.8E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER POSITION. 4/10 BANDING RESULTS
IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE BANDING
FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    09/1931Z 4.8S 90.8E AMSR2
...TURK

图片:20181110_0000Z-bd.gif

图片:vis-animated (1).gif

图片:20181109.2331.f18.91pct91h91v.93S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.5.2S.90.7E.095pc.jpg

[renzhetegong于2018-11-10 08:53编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
台风
台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-11-10 10:44
TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 4.9S 91.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A
091931Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. A 092302Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SMALL GROUPING OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENIRONMENT WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
10 TO 20 KNOT VWS, AND 26 TO 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, BUT ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9319.gif

图片:93S_100000sair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-10 10:58编辑了帖子]
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