颱風巨爵
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[IO]孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“加扎”(BOB 09/ARB 05/07B.Gaja) - 南海出囗,近岸增强,底层强悍,16日凌晨登陆印度泰米尔纳德邦 - JTWC:75KT

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更多 发布于:2018-11-07 09:15
WP, 90, 2018110700,   , BEST,   0,  80N, 1027E,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20181107.0040.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.8N.102.7E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-11-20 22:40编辑了帖子]
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5811艾达5811艾达
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
红豆棒冰冰
台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-07 17:09
(动图)GFS和ECMWF新报均支持西行进入孟加拉湾发展

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_india_fh0-300.gif


图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh0-240.gif

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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-08 07:14
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZNOV2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071413Z MHS METOP-B
89GHZ MIRCROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC.
A 071449Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH MAX WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. **NOTE THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY WITHIN THE GULF OF THAILAND BUT WILL BE OVER THE MALAY
PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE BAY OF
BENGAL.** MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 071200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.4S 56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5S 85.8E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071248Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MIRCROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 070350Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS WITH MAX WIND FIELDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
NAVGEM IS BRINGING IT SOUTHWARD AND ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING THE
SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE TO NO
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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327
327
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3楼#
发布于:2018-11-08 10:45
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 080230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/080230Z-081800ZNOV2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 100.7E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 072349Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 071449Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALED 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH MAX WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN 36-60 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAY OF BENGAL.
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 55.3E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1S 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 780
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 072356Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. NAVGEM IS BRINGING IT SOUTHWARD AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: 90W UPGRADED TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

图片:080115abpwsair.jpg

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renzhetegong
热带风暴
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发布于:2018-11-10 10:01
TCFA
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
- VALID TIME:10/0300Z
Intensity: 25 TO 30 KNOTS. Motion: THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.

描述:90W TCFA 201811100300

图片:QQ截图20181110095954.png

90W TCFA 201811100300


WTIO22 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 93.2E TO 13.0N 88.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 92.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BROAD
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 091926 AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ AND
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 90W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp9018.gif

图片:90W_100030sair.jpg

[renzhetegong于2018-11-10 11:09编辑了帖子]
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hnwfnhee
超强台风
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发布于:2018-11-10 11:34
猛货啊0
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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hnwfnhee
超强台风
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发布于:2018-11-10 11:34
不光是子弹还是马拉松
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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炎煌深沉
台风
台风
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发布于:2018-11-10 16:35
IMD:BOB/09
BOB/09/2018
Dated: 10.11.2018
Depression over Bay of Bengal

图片:sector-ir.jpg



BOB/09/2018
Dated: 10.11.2018
Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal about 80 km northwest of Port Blair at 1130 IST of 10th. To intensify further.
[炎煌深沉于2018-11-10 17:30编辑了帖子]
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5811艾达
热带低压
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发布于:2018-11-10 16:36
BOB?是不是西北太平洋的TD级别?
879hpa,Tip,我记住你了
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-11-10 23:33
5811艾达锛欱OB?是不是西北太平洋的TD级别?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
BOB是孟加拉湾(Bay of Bengal)的缩写,分区而非分级,相对阿拉伯海的ARB和印度陆上的LAND。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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