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[WP]1829号热带气旋“天兔”(33W.Usagi)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-11-09 09:30
1829号热带气旋“天兔”机构发报指引
11月9日:
JTWC  TCFA

11月10日:
JTWC  TCFA Cancelled

11月17日:
JMA   18   21
JTWC  TCFA

11月18日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  06--Prognostic Reasoning   12--Prognostic Reasoning
         18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月19日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月20日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(18:00)
HKO  00   06   12   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月21日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:13)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月22日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12(命名)   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)   台风公报(23:55)
KMA  12   18
CWB  12   18
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月23日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:00)   台风蓝色预警(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月24日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:00)   解除台风蓝色预警(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

11月25日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15(降格低压)   18   21(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:10)   台风公报(17:28)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12(Final Warning)

11月26日:
JMA   00(降格低压)
HKO  00(降格低压区)

图片:cp9818.gif

图片:98C_090130sair.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 090130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 174.9E TO 9.6N 167.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 174.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100130Z.
//
NNNN

WTPN21 PGTW 090130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 174.9E TO 9.6N 167.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 174.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
177.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST
OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 082202Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE LLCC. 98C IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND HAS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 98C TRACKING WEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100130Z.//
NNNN
[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-04 10:03编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-10 10:15
JTWC/98C/TCFA Cancelled/11-10 0130Z
WTPN21 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 090130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 177.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) AS NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. A 092140Z MHS
METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 98C HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY. A 100102Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT THE LLC IS BREAKING UP INTO TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
98C IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST AND WILL REMAIN JUST UNDERNEATH THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT PREDICT ANY INTENSIFICATION TO
ABOVE THE WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN

图片:cp982018.20181110020853.gif

[327于2018-11-10 10:30编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    2018-11-15 16:53
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发布于:2018-11-17 22:25
JTWC/98C/TCFA/11-17 1430Z
WTPN21 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 140.1E TO 8.1N 130.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
141.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 730NM EAST OF
DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 171224Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PERSISTENT MASS OF
CONVECTION ABOVE A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC. DESPITE SOME HIGH (25-30
KTS) VWS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WESTWARD UL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH EXHAUST TO OFFSET THE SHEAR. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ALL PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHERS, CALLING FOR AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181430Z.//
NNNN

图片:cp9818.gif


图片:98C_171430sair.jpg

[三旋共舞于2018-11-17 22:43编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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发布于:2018-11-18 03:31
JMA/TD-b/11-17 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日04時30分 発表

<18日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度50分(6.8度)
 東経 136度05分(136.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<19日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 6度30分(6.5度)
 東経 134度00分(134.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

 

图片:b-00.png

[tcfa_gw于2018-11-18 14:14编辑了帖子]
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4楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 06:00
JMA/TD-b/11-17 21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日07時00分 発表

<18日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度55分(6.9度)
東経 136度10分(136.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<19日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 6度35分(6.6度)
東経 133度00分(133.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:172100-zooml-b-00.png

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5楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 08:59
JMA/TD-b/11-18 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日10時00分 発表

<18日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度35分(6.6度)
東経 135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西南西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<19日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度05分(7.1度)
東経 132度05分(132.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:b-00.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-18 09:01编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 11:58
JMA/TD-b/11-18 03Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日13時00分 発表

<18日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度10分(6.2度)
東経 134度50分(134.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西南西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<19日12時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度00分(7.0度)
東経 131度35分(131.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:b-00.png

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  • 327
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7楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 14:57
JMA/TD-b/11-18 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日16時00分 発表

<18日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度10分(6.2度)
東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西南西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<19日03時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 6度35分(6.6度)
東経 133度25分(133.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<19日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度35分(7.6度)
東経 132度05分(132.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:b-00.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-18 14:59编辑了帖子]
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8楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 16:20
JTWC/33W/#01/11-18 06Z
WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 6.3N 134.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3N 134.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 6.6N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 7.1N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 8.8N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 9.6N 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.4N 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 11.3N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 133.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
EAST OF DAVAO CITY,PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 6.3N 134.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3N 134.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 6.6N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 7.1N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 8.8N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 9.6N 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.4N 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 11.3N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 133.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
EAST OF DAVAO CITY,PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 171430)//
NNNN

WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 6.3N 134.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3N 134.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 6.6N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 7.1N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 8.8N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 9.6N 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.4N 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 11.3N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 133.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
EAST OF DAVAO CITY,PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 1430)//
NNNN

图片:wp3318.gif

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发布于:2018-11-18 17:27
JTWC/33W/#01/11-18 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 180713Z NOAA-19 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) SHOWING STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR.
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 260NM AT TAU 120,
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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[炎煌深沉于2018-11-18 17:29编辑了帖子]
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