炎煌深沉
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10楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 18:00
JMA/TD-b/11-18 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日19時00分 発表

<18日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度30分(6.5度)
東経 133度10分(133.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<19日06時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度05分(7.1度)
東経 132度05分(132.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<19日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 8度10分(8.2度)
東経 130度55分(130.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:b-00.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-18 18:01编辑了帖子]
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11楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 21:07
JMA/TD-b/11-18 12Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日22時10分 発表
 

图片:b-00.png


<18日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度35分(6.6度)
 東経 132度25分(132.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<19日09時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度20分(7.3度)
 東経 131度25分(131.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<19日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 8度35分(8.6度)
 東経 130度20分(130.3度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-11-18 21:13编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
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できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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12楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 22:40
JTWC/33W/#02/11-18 12Z
WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 6.6N 133.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 133.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 7.3N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 8.1N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 8.8N 128.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 9.3N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 10.2N 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 10.8N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 11.1N 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 133.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

图片:wp332018.20181118142355.gif

[327于2018-11-18 22:45编辑了帖子]
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13楼#
发布于:2018-11-18 23:00
JTWC/33W/#02/11-18 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
472 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181240Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED, BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC,
THE INITIAL POSITION (AND INTENSITY) IS BASED ON A 181205Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 120, HOWEVER, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD
33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:33W_181200sair.jpg

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14楼#
发布于:2018-11-19 00:02
JMA/TD-b/11-18 15Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月19日01時05分 発表

图片:b-00.png

<19日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度40分(6.7度)
東経 132度10分(132.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<19日12時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度40分(7.7度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
<20日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 9度00分(9.0度)
東経 129度40分(129.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

[MTWP于2018-11-19 00:05编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 327
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    01-15 20:01
できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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15楼#
发布于:2018-11-19 03:08
JMA/TD-b/11-18 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月19日04時10分 発表

图片:b-00.png

<19日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度55分(6.9度)
東経 132度00分(132.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<19日15時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 8度00分(8.0度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
<20日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 9度30分(9.5度)
東経 129度35分(129.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

[MTWP于2018-11-19 03:11编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 327
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    01-15 20:01
できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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327
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16楼#
发布于:2018-11-19 07:00
JTWC/33W/#03/11-18 18Z
WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 133.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 133.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 8.1N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 9.0N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.8N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 10.3N 125.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 11.0N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 11.7N 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 11.6N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 132.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:191800-wp3318.gif

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发布于:2018-11-19 07:00
JTWC/33W/#03/11-18 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W
(THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING,
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 181841Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS TO THE
EAST OF CONVECTION, WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO IT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30 KTS BASED ON A 181241Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PUSHING THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEASTERN ASIA, LEADING TO A WEAKENING IN THE CENTER OF THE
STR, AND A RE-ORIENTING OF TWO LOBES OF THE STR TO EITHER SIDE.
TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TD 33W SHOULD
INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
COMPETE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS. AROUND TAU 48, TD 33W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO. INTENSITY IS HELD THE
SAME BETWEEN TAU 48 TO 72 AS TD 33W TRACKS THROUGH THE SHALLOW,
WARM BODIES OF WATER BETWEEN THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INCLUDING
THE SULU SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SPREAD OF 205NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE
TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR,
WHICH WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF TD 33W. THE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS REMAINS 205NM AT TAU 120, WITH THE MOST VARIATION IN
NORTH TO SOUTH POSITIONING. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A
FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH
OF CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER AND PREDICTS A
POLEWARD TURN AT TAU 120. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:33W_181800sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-11-19 07:00
JMA/TD-b/11-18 21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月19日06時55分 発表

<19日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置        北緯 7度05分(7.1度)
東経 131度50分(131.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<19日18時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心        北緯 8度25分(8.4度)
東経 130度55分(130.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<20日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:182100-zooml-b-00.png

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发布于:2018-11-19 09:09
JMA/TD-b/11-19 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月19日10時10分 発表

图片:b-00.png

<19日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置 北緯 7度20分(7.3度)
東経 131度50分(131.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<19日21時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 8度40分(8.7度)
東経 130度00分(130.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
<20日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 9度50分(9.8度)
東経 127度55分(127.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

[MTWP于2018-11-19 09:11编辑了帖子]
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できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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