颱風巨爵
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[WP]1828号强台风“万宜”(34W.Man-yi) - 高速西北行,后减速停滞,短暂槽前爆发 - JMA:80KT JTWC:90KT

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更多 发布于:2018-11-17 06:00
92W INVEST 181117 0000 3.0N 163.0E WPAC 15 850

图片:20181116.2140.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.15kts.850mb.3N.163E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-11-27 03:15编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
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    92W
    2018-11-17 08:00
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    92W
    2018-11-17 08:00
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正太学长正太学长 黄志生黄志生
zjk369
台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-17 07:13
92W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 17, 2018:
Location: 3.0°N 163.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 850 mb
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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-17 11:18
仍是850mb
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-11-17 14:10
JTWC:LOW
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.7N
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND, FSM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170430Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTARY CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS AND WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE
FAVORABLY WARM (29-30C) IN THE SYSTEM'S VICINITY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTING
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 96 AND ALL OTHERS MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:170515abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2018-11-18 10:45
TPPN12 PGTW 180247
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SSE OF POHNPEI)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 2.00N
D. 159.90E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPRIAL
YIELDING DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   DARLOW
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-11-19 13:56
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZNOV2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 779 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW
190300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.3N 161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 449
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190250Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING, THOUGH STILL ELONGATED LLCC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VWS OFFSET BY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT 92W WILL REACH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH BETWEEN 201200Z AND 221200Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT BY 191800Z. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2018-11-19 16:30
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 156E WEST SLOWLY.

图片:18111915.png

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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
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7楼#
发布于:2018-11-19 18:56
JTWC:TCFA

图片:wp9218.gif


图片:92W_191130sair.jpg


(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 158.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 989
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190827Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY CIRCULAR LLCC FROM
THE WEST. VWS IS IN THE LOW-MODERATE RANGE (10-20KTS) OVER THE LLCC
BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. UL OUTFLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WESTWARD,
WITH NO CLEAR MERIDIONAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM
(28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG A
NORTHWESTERN TRACK INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 191130) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-11-19 19:18编辑了帖子]
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327
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发布于:2018-11-19 22:30
JMA:TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 04N 156E WEST 10 KT.

图片:18111921.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2018-11-19 23:53
JTWC:T1.5 SSD:T2.0
TPPN12 PGTW 191505
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SW OF POHNPEI)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 2.67N
D. 155.74E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
 19/1037Z 3.45N 157.38E MMHS
 MARTIN

TXPQ21 KNES 191527
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 3.5N
D. 156.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET =
1.5 AND PT = 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...KIBLER
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