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[WP]93W机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-11-26 21:15

图片:wp9318.gif

图片:93W_261300sair.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 261330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM 7.4N 163.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 163.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY 656 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260539Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). AN 252214Z ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP, BUT REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY BUT TIMING
AND INTENSITY VARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271330Z.
//
NNNN
[327于2018-11-26 22:15编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +3 贡献值 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    贡献值 3
    原创帖
    2018-11-26 21:15
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    原创帖
    2018-11-26 21:15
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-27 21:26
JTWC/93W/TCFA/11-27 1330Z
WTPN21 PGTW 271330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261321Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 166.1E TO 11.9N 161.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.8N
165.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 165.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175
NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 270659Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION AND A
FRAGMENTED BAND TO THE SOUTH. A 271037Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED WITH 20-25KT INFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS INCREASING
TO 15-25KTS OVER THE LLCC OFFSET BY STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK QUICKLY TURNING
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEAR FUTURE, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
261330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281330Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp9318.gif

图片:93W_271330sair.jpg

[MTWP于2018-11-27 21:32编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
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    2018-11-28 12:50
できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 11:20
JTWC/93W/TCFA Cancelled/11-28 0200Z
WTPN21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271321Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
271330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N 166E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 272207Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTION. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJALEIN 105 NM TO THE EAST SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED FROM 19 KNOTS TO 11 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED
KWAJALEIN. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE NORTH HAS STIFLED
OUTFLOW, LEADING TO THE DIMINISHED AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED FURTHER OFF THEIR
PREDICTED INTENSITY, WITH MOST MAINTAINING MERELY AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY ENHANCED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVELIKE FEATURE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.
//
NNNN

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[红豆棒冰冰于2018-11-28 15:18编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    优秀帖
    2018-11-28 16:05
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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