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强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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昆士兰州境内二级热带气旋“欧文”(04U/05P.Owen) - 卡湾回旋,二度吹袭约克角半岛 - MAX BOM:80KT JTWC:80KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-11-27 08:16
97P INVEST 181127 0000 2.0S 164.8E SHEM 15 0

图片:20181127.0000.himawari-8.vis.97P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2S.164.8E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-12-15 07:00编辑了帖子]
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    97P
    11-27 09:00
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    97P
    11-27 09:00
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feidele
强台风
强台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-27 08:42
不會抽乾93W吧
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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炎煌深沉
台风
台风
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 18:46
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.
Late in the week, a tropical low is expected to develop near the Solomon Islands. This low will drift southwestwards while deepening over the weekend, and may enter the Eastern Region early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Very low
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 07:00
JTWC:LOW
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.8S
159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH
OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 281759Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A VERY DISORGANIZED LLC WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION. A
281050Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC TO BE VERY BROAD TROUGHING
WITH SWATHS OF 15 KNOTS WINDS TO THE EAST. 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:282000abpwsair.jpg

图片:91.track.png

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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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4楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 16:00
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290342Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 281010Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:290500abpwsair.jpg

图片:66.track.png

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炎煌深沉
台风
台风
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5楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 17:43
A tropical low is currently located over the Solomon Islands. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to remain outside our region of responsibility before entering the Eastern Region during Sunday or Monday.
Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development into next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate
[炎煌深沉于2018-11-29 17:45编辑了帖子]
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933954
台风
台风
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发布于:2018-11-30 12:33
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 3 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low is currently located east-southeast of Papua New Guinea. The low is forecast to move in a southwesterly direction while developing further over the next three days. At this stage, it is expected to enter the Eastern Region during Sunday and stay well offshore of the Queenlsand Coast in the northern Coral Sea.
Uncertainty does exist with the tropical low's movement and development from Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:Moderate
[933954于2018-11-30 12:34编辑了帖子]
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933954
台风
台风
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7楼#
发布于:2018-11-30 14:51
97P INVEST 181130 0600 9.9S 155.5E SHEM 25 1006
TPPS10 PGTW 300638
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (SW OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 30/0600Z
C. 9.92S
D. 155.47E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MILAM
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933954
台风
台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-11-30 15:01

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 266
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 300453Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOW A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING
AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
32 CELSIUS). A PARTIAL 291129Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY, BUT
VARY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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933954
台风
台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-11-30 22:50
TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
//
NNNN

图片:TCFA.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 301456
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (SW OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 30/1430Z
C. 10.95S
D. 154.50E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MILAM
[933954于2018-12-01 08:34编辑了帖子]
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