红豆棒冰冰
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[EP]墨西哥西南93E - 16.6N 103.9W - NHC:50%

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-11-27 22:52
EP, 93, 2018112612,   , BEST,   0,  88N, 1040W,  20,    0, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS046,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 046,
EP, 93, 2018112618,   , BEST,   0,  90N, 1049W,  20,    0, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS046,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 046,
EP, 93, 2018112700,   , BEST,   0,  96N, 1054W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS046,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 046,
EP, 93, 2018112706,   , BEST,   0, 103N, 1054W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,  60,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS046,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 046,
EP, 93, 2018112712,   , BEST,   0, 111N, 1054W,  25, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 046, SPAWNINVEST, ep732018 to ep932018,

图片:20181127.1445.goes-16.ir.93E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.11.1N.105.4W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d0.png

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png


1. A low pressure system located more than 400 hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move northward
today, and then turn northeastward toward southwestern Mexico on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
[327于2018-11-30 22:52编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
    威望 3
    93E
    2018-11-27 23:10
  • 327
    金钱 3
    93E
    2018-11-27 23:10
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feidele
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1楼#
发布于:2018-11-27 23:07
应该是东太新世纪最晚扰动。第二名是15年11月22的桑德拉,并在2015.11.25达到东太最晚C4
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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2楼#
发布于:2018-11-27 23:57
(动图)GFS新报认为风力有望达标,但结构貌似不佳

图片:gfs_mslp_uv850_epac_fh0-60.gif

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正太学长
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3楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 00:34
握草,不知不觉东太那边风季已经快结束了,就两三天了
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4楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 02:16
NHC:50%/50%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 450 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become marginally conducive for some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could still form during the
next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to move northward today
and tonight, and then turn northeastward toward southwestern Mexico
on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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5楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 15:11
NHC:40%/40%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low pressure area located about 425 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Although upper-level winds are not likely to be
particularly conducive for development, a tropical depression could
still form before environmental conditions become very unfavorable
late Thursday. The disturbance is forecast to turn northeastward
toward southwestern Mexico on Wednesday and approach the coast on
Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima
and Jalisco through Thursday. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png



最新的风场未能扫中

图片:LATEST.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-11-28 15:28编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-11-28 19:59
NHC:30%/30%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Wed Nov 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A westward-moving low pressure system located about 400 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds have
become less conducive for development, and tropical cyclone
formation is becoming less likely.  However, shower activity
associated with the disturbance is still forecast to move
northeastward toward southwestern Mexico today through Thursday,
bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains could result
in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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7楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 11:03
NHC:20%/20%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Wed Nov 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated low pressure
area centered about 325 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become less organized since yesterday, and further development
of this system is not likely due to strong upper-level winds.
However, shower activity associated with the disturbance is forecast
to move toward southwestern Mexico today through Thursday, bringing
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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8楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 17:01
NHC:10%/10%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Wed Nov 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated low pressure area centered about 275 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Significant development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds.  However, shower activity
associated with the disturbance is forecast to move over
southwestern Mexico through Thursday, bringing locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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9楼#
发布于:2018-11-29 21:34
NHC:0%/0%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Thu Nov 29 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a well-defined low pressure system centered a little more than 100
miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Although tropical cyclone
formation is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, the
associated shower activity will continue to spread onshore and well
inland over southwestern Mexico into this afternoon.  Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will occur over portions of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, and these rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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