颱風巨爵
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[SH(18-19)]珊瑚海98P - 18.4S 148.2E

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更多 发布于:2018-12-05 01:17
98P INVEST 181204 1200 6.6S 163.1E SHEM 15 0

图片:20181204.1650.himawari-8.ir.98P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.6S.163.1E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-12-13 03:05编辑了帖子]
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    98P
    2018-12-05 08:00
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    2018-12-05 08:00
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meow
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世纪风王
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1楼#
发布于:2018-12-06 17:12
LOW L [1005HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 162.5E. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
327
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2楼#
发布于:2018-12-07 10:00
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061930Z-070600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5S 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC. A 061419Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) WITH
MODERATELY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, OR POTENTIAL MERGING
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 05P TO THE WEST AS BOTH ARE STEERED
SOUTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT
MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 061431Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-40 KTS) WITH WEAK
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS).
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25-30KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT WRAPPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS QUEENSLAND,
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREAS IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND
2.B.(2) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:062000abpwsair.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-12-07 14:58
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 162.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070232Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PARTIAL ASCAT
IMAGES FROM 062227Z AND 061044Z SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). THERE IS UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OFFSET BY DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING HIGHER WINDS
(25-35 KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION THAT CURRENTLY ARE NOT
SHOWN TO WRAP IN AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE WEST AFTER A
PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY
55 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062333Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY
EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WESTERLY TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY GFS IS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING CRITERIA. THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS (25-35 KNOTS) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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炎煌深沉
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4楼#
发布于:2018-12-07 20:20
At 2pm AEST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 151.0 degrees east, about 580 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but may approach the Queensland coast over the weekend and produce strong winds and heavy rainfall about the Central Coast and adjacent districts.
Another tropical low was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 162.6 east. This system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
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炎煌深沉
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5楼#
发布于:2018-12-08 13:40
JTWC撤评级
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 162.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



At 3pm AEST Saturday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.2 degrees south, longitude 149.9 degrees east, about 500km east of Cooktown. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but is expected to approach the Queensland coast and produce strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall about the tropical east coast.
Another tropical low was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 15.4 degrees south, longitude 160.4 east. This system may move westwards into the far east of the Eastern Region on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
[炎煌深沉于2018-12-08 13:55编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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6楼#
发布于:2018-12-09 13:55
JTWC:LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC), PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD. A 090011Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 98P
IS IN A SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28 CELSIUS, AND
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



At 2pm AEST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.0 degrees south, longitude 146.8 degrees east, about 150km northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, but is expected to approach and cross the North Tropical Queensland coast during the next 24 hours as a tropical low. A severe weather warning is current for coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and Bowen for heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts associated with ex-tropical cyclone Owen.
Another tropical low was located in the eastern Coral Sea near latitude 16.7 degrees south, longitude 156.8 east. This system is expected to remain weak over the coming days, and has a very low chance of forming into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Very LowTuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
[炎煌深沉于2018-12-09 14:13编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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7楼#
发布于:2018-12-10 11:39
JTWC撤评级
ABPW10 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100130Z-100600ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100051ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
3.4N 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092119Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING, SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OR MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 147.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. MODELS SHOW 05P TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA
THEN REGENERATING ONCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100100)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 157.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1), UPGRADED
AREA IN 2.B(1) TO HIGH AND REMOVED AREA IN 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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