颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝67
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数488
  • 来自
阅读:4135回复:41

[IO]斯里兰卡东北强气旋风暴“佩泰”(BOB 10/08B.Phethai) - 北印年内第五个强气旋风暴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-12-06 09:42
94B INVEST 181206 0000 4.1N 80.6E IO 15 0

图片:20181206.0110.himawari-8.ir.94B.INVEST.15kts.998mb.4.1N.80.6E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-12-17 02:10编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 327
    威望 3
    94B
    2018-12-06 11:11
  • 327
    金钱 3
    94B
    2018-12-06 11:11
喜欢1 评分2

最新喜欢:

fw2000fw2000
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝69
  • 关注78
  • 发帖数2820
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-12-07 17:38
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 070800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/070800Z-071800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070326Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 061554Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
SMALL AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM,
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT, WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
5811艾达
热带风暴
热带风暴
  • 注册日期2018-11-10
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝13
  • 关注36
  • 发帖数291
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-12-08 18:57
EC支持发展

图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh48-192.gif

[5811艾达于2018-12-08 19:37编辑了帖子]
本人注册时手滑,注册名为5827艾达 NMC:110m/s
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝69
  • 关注78
  • 发帖数2820
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-12-09 05:29
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 081800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 431
NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081547Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A 081514Z ASCAT METOP-
A PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 15-
20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON WHETHER 94B WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS
OR REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT?S
CURRENT LOCATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝69
  • 关注78
  • 发帖数2820
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-12-10 03:23
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.5N 86.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 422
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091527Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF WEAK, SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS
WITH AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
5811艾达
热带风暴
热带风暴
  • 注册日期2018-11-10
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝13
  • 关注36
  • 发帖数291
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-12-11 18:11
JTWC:LOW

图片:abpwsair.jpg

本人注册时手滑,注册名为5827艾达 NMC:110m/s
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝69
  • 关注78
  • 发帖数2820
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-12-12 02:19
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:JTWC评级图.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-12-12 23:51编辑了帖子]
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝240
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数13034
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-12-12 16:35
IMD已编号为BOB 10,强度为低压区,预测24小时内升格低压,48小时内升格深低压

Press Release
Date: 12
th December, 2018
Time of Issue: 1230 hrs IST
Sub: Well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial
Indian Ocean
Weather Systems
The well marked low pressure area now lies over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial
Indian Ocean at 0830 hours IST of today, the 12th December 2018. Associated cyclonic circulation
extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24
hours and intensify further into a deep depression during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move
towards south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts during next 72 hours.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝69
  • 关注78
  • 发帖数2820
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-12-13 02:54
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7S
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING 91S REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-
12 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg



此外JTWC分析出T2.0
TPIO10 PGTW 121828
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 12/1800Z
C. 6.68N
D. 88.67E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT BOTH AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 MILAM
[红豆棒冰冰于2018-12-13 02:56编辑了帖子]
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2019-04-26
  • 粉丝154
  • 关注69
  • 发帖数5656
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-12-13 11:11
JTWC:TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 88.7E TO 11.7N 82.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 122203Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140300Z.
//
NNNN

     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. XXXXXX ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE
THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48
HOURS. XXXXX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A ()
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

图片:io9418.gif

图片:94B_130300sair.jpg

[327于2018-12-13 11:30编辑了帖子]
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部