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[SH(18-19)]科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第4号“依兰”(06S.Kenanga) - 西南印史上第二个印尼命名风暴、史上首个印尼名ITC级气旋 - MFR:100KT JTWC:115KT

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更多 发布于:2018-12-11 06:57
91S INVEST 181210 1800 4.2S 87.6E SHEM 15 1010

图片:20181210.2200.msg-1.ir.91S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.4.2S.87.6E.100pc.jpg

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    威望 10
    MFR:100KT
    2018-12-19 21:00
  • 327
    威望 3
    91S
    2018-12-11 08:00
  • 327
    金钱 3
    91S
    2018-12-11 08:00
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1楼#
发布于:2018-12-11 20:42
JTWC不编90S可能是这个原因

SH, 90, 2019121018,   , BEST,   0,  42S,  876E,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

TPXS10 PGTW 111230
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (E OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 11/1200Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   VEERKAMP

图片:avn-animated.gif

图片:bd-animated.gif

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发布于:2018-12-12 20:37
Suspect area east of the basin:
The last ASCAT swath do not show any closed clockwise circulation. With winds in the order of
15/20kt on the equatorial and polar side, the circulation remains elongated and seems to be hindered
by the twin circulation of the northern hemisphere which is intensifying. It will be necessary to wait
until this circulation is far from the northern hemisphere before the monsoon flow contributes to the
intensification of the closed clockwise circulation. Unlike some deterministic models, which
maintain a fairly significant intensification (and the overall forecast of the americain ensemblist
model GFS is a little more moderate), the latest runs of the ensemblist of ECMWF model confirm
the slowdown of this possible cyclogenesis.
For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm remains moderate from
Saturday on in the eastern part of the basin.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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发布于:2018-12-13 02:57
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7S
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING 91S REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-
12 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2018-12-13 18:22
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131000Z-131800ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130251ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO32 PTWC 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.      
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9S 91.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 434
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) IS
MOSTLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. A 130655Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC WITH SOME
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. A 130303Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. 91S IS
CURRENTLY SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. 91S IS BETWEEN VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
(40 TO 50 KNOTS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC AND LOW VWS (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-12-13 18:39编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-12-14 02:20
TCFA
sh9119.kmz 13-Dec-2018 17:18 306K

图片:TCFA.jpg



ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130251ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 88.1E, APPROXIMATELY 490
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING
TROPICAL STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.7S 93.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 389
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCO ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CENTER
(LLC) IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. A 130655Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC
WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. A 130303Z METOP-A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
91S IS CURRENTLY SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. 91S IS BETWEEN VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (40 TO 50 KNOTS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC AND LOW VWS (5 TO 10
KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg



评级图又改成了MEDIUM。。。
abpwsair.jpg 13-Dec-2018 18:18 631K

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2018-12-14 08:24
JTWC:TCFA
好像这个才是真正的TCFA?kmz文件重发了一遍。。。
sh9119.kmz 13-Dec-2018 21:44 306K

WTXS21 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 92.5E TO 11.5S 88.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 91.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 92.8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 91.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 428 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 131920Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142100Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9119.gif



ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130251ZDEC2018//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132051ZDEC2018//
NAR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 490
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8S 92.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 428
NM NORTHWEST OF COCO ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PARTIAL 131920Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE
BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
BROAD, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B (1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

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发布于:2018-12-14 22:05
Suspect Area in Jakarta AoR:
During the last 24h, deep convective activity has remained strong over far eastern part of the basin.
This system is becoming more organized with curved patterns in latest observations (SSMIS 0019Z
and AMSR 0737Z). An apparent vortex was visible for several minutes, due to the presence of a
strong easterly vertical wind, near 08S/93E. Ascat and Scatsat swaths show winds close to 20kt in
both feeding flows.
With the gradual increase of the lower convergence, on the equatorial and polar side, the circulation
is likely to become symmetric. From tomorrow, the low is expected to move southward and so in a
favorable environment under the upper ridge (low shear + good upper divergence). Eventually, a
northerly constraint in mid levels may hinder the deepening early next week (as shown by 00Z GFS
run). Oceanic potential may be a limiting factor if the track goes south of 15S.
On the system track, due to its proximity to 90E and the current structure, it is difficult to estimate
precisely the timing of the arrival in our AoR. However there is a strong consensus in the guidance
to propose a southward then southwestward track from tomorrow. The minimum is thus expected to
cross 90E by Monday at last.
For the next 5 days, the risk of formation / arrival in our AoR of a tropical storm is moderate
Saturday and becomes high from Sunday in the eastern part of the basin.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-12-14 22:45
BMKG判定热带低压,无报文。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2018-12-15 07:46
TCFA#2
WTXS21 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132051Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
132100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 92.0E TO 12.3S 92.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
92.8E IS NOW LOCATED 8.1S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 364.5 NM NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT AT 28C-30C. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 35 KNOT WINDS OR MORE WITHIN 24
HOURS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152100Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9119.gif

图片:91S_142100sair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-12-15 08:06编辑了帖子]
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