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[WP]密克罗尼西亚东北94W - 9.9N 163.5E

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更多 发布于:2018-12-12 01:01
94W INVEST 181211 1200 9.0N 174.5E WPAC 15 1010
99C INVEST 181211 1200 4.0N 172.0E CPAC 20 1006

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 99C, HOWEVER, NAVGEM AND GFS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.

图片:20181211.1640.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-90N-1745E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-12-14 03:45编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • 327
    威望 5
    94W
    2018-12-12 08:00
  • 327
    金钱 5
    94W
    2018-12-12 08:00
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smqhzxz
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-12-12 01:48
99C分离出的子系统,涡度大面积鲜红,中心有些微白。NRL竟然可以这么干。
风雨无阻
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-12-12 04:11
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 111900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/111900Z-120600ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111351ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4N 171E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
174.5E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT MOVING TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST, WITH NAVGEM SHOWING THE MOST AND MAINTAINING A
CIRCULATION THAT MOVES TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 111200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.9S 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 111500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A LOW
AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) FROM LOW.//
NNNN

图片:JTWC评级图.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-12-12 23:49编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2018-12-12 16:52
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 174.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A 120407Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 112219Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A SHARP WAVE WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY WITHIN THE CONVERGENT TROPICAL EASTERLIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 120000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

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4楼#
发布于:2018-12-13 16:07
JTWC撤评级
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 130000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75
KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 130300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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5811艾达
热带低压
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5楼#
发布于:2018-12-13 19:00
再一扰动夭折
879hpa,Tip,我记住你了
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k830704125
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6楼#
发布于:2018-12-13 21:52
看來2018風季 已經差不多完結
大中華征服全世界
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桑美和伊欧凯
资深会员-热带辐合带
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发布于:2018-12-13 22:04
k830704125锛毧磥2018風季 已經差不多完結鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
1830难产 今年有点类似于2011年,到9月底命名了19个,全年却只有21个!


2018年度西北太平洋热带气旋(初报强度)
    JMA编号    JTWC编号     中文名称     英文名称     CMA     JMA     JTWC     命名日期
    1801     01W     布拉万     Bolaven     18 m/s     35 kt     30 kt     1月3日
    1802     02W     三巴     Sanba     20 m/s     35 kt     35 kt     2月11日
    1803     03W     杰拉华     Jelawat     52 m/s     95 kt     130 kt     3月25日
    1804     05W     艾云尼     Ewiniar     20 m/s     40 kt     40 kt     6月6日
    1805     06W     马力斯     Maliksi     30 m/s     65 kt     60 kt     6月7日
    1806     08W     格美     Gaemi     20 m/s     45 kt     40 kt     6月15日
    1807     09W     派比安  Prapiroon     33 m/s     65 kt     75 kt     6月29日
    1808     10W     玛莉亚     Maria     60 m/s     105 kt     140 kt     7月4日
    1809     11W     山神    Son-Tinh     23 m/s     40 kt     45 kt     7月17日
    1810     12W     安比     Ampil     28 m/s     50 kt     50 kt     7月18日
    1811     14W     悟空     Wukong     30 m/s     50 kt     65 kt     7月23日
    1812     15W     云雀    Jongdari     40 m/s     75 kt     95 kt     7月24日
    1813     17W     珊珊   Shanshan     42 m/s     70 kt     90 kt     8月3日
    1814     18W     摩羯     Yagi     28 m/s     40 kt     45 kt     8月8日
    1815     19W     丽琵     Leepi     28 m/s     50 kt     65 kt     8月11日
    1816     20W     贝碧嘉     Bebinca     28 m/s     50 kt     60 kt     8月13日
    1817     10E     赫克托     Hector     20 m/s     40 kt     40 kt     8月13日
    1818     21W     温比亚     Rumbia     25 m/s     45 kt     50 kt     8月15日
    1819     22W     苏力     Soulik     50 m/s     85 kt     105 kt     8月16日
    1820     23W     西马仑     Cimaron     48 m/s     85 kt     110 kt     8月18日
    1821     25W     飞燕     Jebi     65 m/s     105 kt     150 kt     8月28日
    1822     26W     山竹  Mangkhut     65 m/s     110 kt     155 kt     9月7日
    1823     27W     百里嘉     Barijat     28 m/s     40 kt     40 kt     9月10日
    1824     28W     潭美     Trami     60 m/s     105 kt     140 kt     9月21日
    1825     30W     康妮  Kong-rey     60 m/s     105 kt     140 kt     9月29日
    1826     31W     玉兔     Yutu     72 m/s     115 kt     155 kt    10月21日
   1827    32W    桃芝    Toraji    18 m/s    35 kt    30 kt   11月17日
    1828    34W    万宜    Man-yi    42 m/s    80 kt    90 kt    11月20日
    1829    33W    天兔    Usagi    30 m/s    65 kt    70 kt    11月22日
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