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[WP]35W(TD18)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-12-24 17:26
35W(TD18)机构发报指引
12月24日:
JTWC  TCFA   12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月25日:
JMA   12   15   18   21
HKO  12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月26日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
HKO  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月27日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
HKO  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月28日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(10:03)   台风公报(17:46)
HKO  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月29日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

12月30日:
HKO  00
JTWC  00(Final Warning)

WTPN21 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250900Z.
//
NNNN

WTPN21 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z
SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PTWC 240900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250900Z.//
NNNN

WTPN21 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z
SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250900Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp9618.gif

[327于2019-01-17 18:00编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-12-24 23:10
JTWC/35W/#01/12-24 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 135.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 135.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 8.0N 135.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 9.0N 134.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 9.9N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 10.4N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 11.1N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 11.4N 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 11.8N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240851DEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 135.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 135.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 8.0N 135.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 9.0N 134.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 9.9N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 10.4N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 11.1N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 11.4N 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 11.8N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240900).//
NNNN

图片:241200-wp3518.gif

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    01-17 17:40
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2楼#
发布于:2018-12-24 23:10
JTWC/35W/#01/12-24 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THRITYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF PERSISTENT BUT SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 241155Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 35W ALSO HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THOUGH TAU 24, TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODERATE WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 35W TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES WILL PREVENT
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 45 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO STEER TD 35W WESTWARD. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEING TO INTERACT
WITH A SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 120 WHICH WILL ALSO
PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:35W_241200sair.jpg

[327于2018-12-24 23:15编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-12-25 08:00
JTWC/35W/#02/12-24 18Z
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 7.2N 135.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 135.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 8.2N 134.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 9.1N 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 9.7N 131.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 10.0N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 10.4N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 11.0N 122.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 11.7N 117.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

图片:241800-wp3518.gif

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发布于:2018-12-25 08:00
JTWC/35W/#02/12-24 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
84 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241759Z SSMI
85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE AND A 241746Z F-15 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOW SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND SLP OBSERVATIONS OF 1003MB FROM KOROR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY BROAD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
35W IS TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MODERATE VWS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, WHICH WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY,
VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL DECREASE FURTHER, HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. AS TD 35W EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT BY TAU 120, WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:35W_241800sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-12-25 10:00
JTWC/35W/#03/12-25 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 135.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 135.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 8.4N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 9.2N 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 9.6N 131.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 9.9N 129.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 10.4N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 11.0N 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 11.7N 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 135.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM
EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp352018.20181225012557.gif

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发布于:2018-12-25 10:10
JTWC/35W/#03/12-25 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 242147Z SSMIS
91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT/SCATSAT DATA
SHOWING 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE (10 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE) AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) INDICATE ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS,
HOWEVER, THE 24/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY BROAD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
35W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MODERATE VWS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, WHICH WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY,
VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD
OF 70NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL DECREASE FURTHER, HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. AS TD 35W EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR. TD 35W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 120 DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:35W_250000sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-12-25 16:10
JTWC/35W/#04/12-25 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 8.2N 135.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 135.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 9.1N 133.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 9.8N 131.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 10.3N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 10.6N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 11.1N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 11.6N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 12.2N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 134.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

图片:250600-wp3518.gif

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发布于:2018-12-25 16:10
JTWC/35W/#04/12-25 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
AN EXPOSED, WEAK, AND RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
POORLY-ORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLC. FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE
SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE
PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE VISAYAN
ISLANDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER LEYTE JUST BEFORE TAU 72. DESPITE THE
GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION OF ONLY UP TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY BACK TO 30
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL STAY ON THE SAME TRACK UNDER THE STR
BUT WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS AND BARELY MAINTAIN TD
INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS)
AND REGAIN ONLY MINIMAL TS STRENGTH, EVEN AFTER IT CLEARS LANDMASS
AND VWS DECREASES, DUE TO EXPOSURE TO A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE
EVENT IN THE SCS. WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
NNNN

图片:35W_250600sair.jpg

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    01-17 17:40
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-12-25 21:10
JMA/TD-a/12-25 12Z

图片:a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月25日22時10分 発表

<25日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 134度40分(134.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<26日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 10度30分(10.5度)
東経 130度25分(130.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 327
    威望 3
    优秀帖
    01-17 17:40
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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