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发布于:2018-12-25 22:10
JTWC/35W/#05/12-25 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 134.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 134.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 9.5N 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 10.1N 131.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 10.6N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 10.9N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 11.4N 124.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 12.0N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 12.6N 116.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 134.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.//
NNNN

图片:251200-wp3518.gif

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发布于:2018-12-25 22:10
JTWC/35W/#05/12-25 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
95 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
A PARTLY-EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN
BULK OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC.
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE
FORMATIVE BANDS TOWARD THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE SUSTAINED
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE PERENNIALLY
FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS THE STR BUILDS, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE VISAYAN
ISLANDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR NEAR TAU 60. DESPITE THE
GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION OF ONLY UP TO 40 KNOTS AT TAUS 36-48.
AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY
BACK TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL STAY ON THE SAME TRACK UNDER THE STR
BUT WILL STRUGGLE ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS AT A WEAK TS INTENSITY.
AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND REGAIN
ONLY MINIMAL STRENGTH AT 40 KNOTS, EVEN AFTER IT CLEARS LANDMASS AND
VWS DECREASES, DUE TO EXPOSURE TO A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT
IN THE SCS. WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID
JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
NNNN

图片:35W_251200sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-12-26 00:35
JMA/TD-a/12-25 15Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月26日01時05分 発表
 

图片:a-00.png


<26日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
 東経 134度20分(134.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<27日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 10度35分(10.6度)
 東経 130度05分(130.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
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13楼#
发布于:2018-12-26 03:21
JMA/TD-a/12-25 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月26日04時05分 発表

图片:a-00.png


<26日03時の実況>
大きさ    -
強さ    -
    熱帯低気圧
存在地域    カロリン諸島
中心位置    北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
    東経 133度30分(133.5度)
進行方向、速さ    西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧    1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速    15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速    23m/s(45kt)

<27日03時の予報>
強さ    -
存在地域    フィリピンの東
予報円の中心    北緯 10度35分(10.6度)
    東経 129度55分(129.9度)
進行方向、速さ    西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧    998hPa
中心付近の最大風速    18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速    25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径    200km(110NM)
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发布于:2018-12-26 04:22
JTWC/35W/#06/12-25 18Z
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 133.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 133.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 10.8N 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 11.3N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 11.7N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 12.1N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 12.4N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 12.6N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 13.6N 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 133.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165
NM NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp3518.gif

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发布于:2018-12-26 04:26
JTWC/35W/#06/12-25 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN OBSCURED
AND WEAK LLCC. MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE ASSESSED CENTER, ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS, WITH A SMALL POCKET OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251622Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWING SOME
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTH, GIVING AN
INDICATION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A 251240Z ASCAT-B PASS,
WHICH SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND
SATCON IS 40 KNOTS, BUT BOTH ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH AS THEY ARE
FIXING THE CENTER TO THE NORTH IN THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND SO ARE
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS, WHILE TWO SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ROUGHLY THREE DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST INDICATE 20-24
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE FAVORABLE AT
29-30 CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN
PHILIPPINE SEA. BEYOND TAU 48, THE TRACK FLATTENS TO MORE WESTWARD,
AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS AND BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. TD 35W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR ISLAND AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO TAU 60 AND THEN TRANSIT INTO THE SIBUYAN SEA
BY TAU 72. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH GENERALLY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY
RELATIVELY HIGH VWS AND KEEPING A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE
THE INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, TRENDING TOWARDS THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODELS.
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK,
REEMERGING OVER WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY ABOUT TAU 84.
ONCE FULLY INTO THE SCS BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY REINTENSIFY
UNDER INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS, BEING
OFFSET BY EXPOSURE TO RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE NORTHWARD OUTLIER,
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEFINING A MIDDLE TRACK, AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES
NEAR THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK, AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:35W_251800sair.jpg

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16楼#
发布于:2018-12-26 08:00
JMA/TD-a/12-25 21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月26日07時10分 発表

<26日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
東経 133度25分(133.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<27日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 10度40分(10.7度)
東経 129度40分(129.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:252100-zooml-a-00.png

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17楼#
发布于:2018-12-26 09:10
JMA/TD-a/12-26 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月26日10時05分 発表

<26日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 9度35分(9.6度)
東経 133度20分(133.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<27日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 10度50分(10.8度)
東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:260000-zooml-a-00.png

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18楼#
发布于:2018-12-26 10:15
JTWC/35W/#07/12-26 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 133.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 133.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 10.4N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 11.0N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 11.4N 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 11.6N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 11.8N 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 12.3N 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 12.3N 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 132.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

图片:260000-wp3518.gif

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发布于:2018-12-26 10:15
JTWC/35W/#07/12-26 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
171 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PIN WHEELING AROUND THE ASSESSED STORM CENTER,
WHICH IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, IN AN ELONGATED MASS, GENERALLY
ORIENTED WEST-EAST, ALONG THE SHEAR VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BANDS, EXTRAPOLATING THOSE THAT ARE VISIBLE INTO A MAJOR
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND IGNORING THE VISIBLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS AS
SECONDARY SPINNERS AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TRUE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 252116Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS). TD 35W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF WEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TURNING MORE DIRECTLY WESTWARD BY TAU 48
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE
SEA AS IT BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR ISLAND AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM
AROUND TAU 54 AND THEN TRANSIT INTO THE SIBUYAN SEA, EMERGING OVER
WATER ON THE WEST SIDE OF PANAY BY TAU 72. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE STRONG VWS
REMAINS IN PLACE, OFFSETTING THE MODERATELY STRONG OUTFLOW. AFTER
THIS POINT AND THROUGH LANDFALL, TD 35W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DIVERGENT AND
VWS DECREASES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 KNOTS JUST PRIOR
TO LANDFALL, THEREAFTER WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, EMERGING IN THE NORTHERN
SULU SEA AT 30 KNOTS. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND
EGRR THE SOUTHERN, WITH A 150 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK, MOVING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY ABOUT TAU 84. ONCE FULLY INTO THE
SCS BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 35
KNOTS, BUT THEN MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM OUTLINING THE
NORTHWARD OUTLIER WHILE THE EGRR AND JGSM OUTLINE THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF ENVELOPE, 270 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LIES
IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALONG
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD SURGE, AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:35W_260000sair.jpg

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