颱風巨爵
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[SH(18-19)]爪哇岛以南96S - 11.2S 110.8E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-12-29 05:45
96S INVEST 181228 1800 11.0S 118.0E SHEM 15 1010

图片:20181228.2120.himawari-8.ir.96S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11S.118E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2019-01-01 08:55编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
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    96S
    2018-12-29 06:45
  • 327
    金钱 3
    96S
    2018-12-29 06:45
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红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-12-29 07:22
这个应该就是此前SSD分析的未编号扰动
TXXS26 KNES 281800
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 28/1730Z
C. 10.8S
D. 118.0E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. POSITION BASED ON MID LEVEL CENTER AS MOST RECENT ASCAT DID NOT
REVEALED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...TURK

GFS新报支持其西行发展

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_io_39.png

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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2018-12-29 15:15
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 290730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/290730Z-291800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290158Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT 290200Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN
25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 60-84 HOURS WITH POOR TRACK
GUIDANCE.
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) IS A LOW.//
NNNN

图片:290500abpwsair.jpg

[327于2018-12-29 16:40编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-12-31 01:53
JTWC撤评级
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 114.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

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