[SH(18-19)]珊瑚海北部97P - 12.7S 153.4E
楼主#更多 发布于：2018-12-29 07:55
97P INVEST 181229 0000 13.0S 153.3E SHEM 20 1002
JTWC:LOW(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-
16 91GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE
(BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH A EASTWARD TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTEGRATION INTO INVEST
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
The monsoon trough currently extends across far north Queensland and the
northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further over the
coming days, while continuing to extend across this area.
At 2pm AEST Saturday, a number of tropical lows were analysed along the monsoon
trough including one off the Peninsula coast, another south of Sudest Island
(PNG) and further one near the Solomon Islands. There is a high chance that a
tropical cyclone will form in the northern Coral Sea over the next few days.
At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though
this will be continually reviewed during the course of the weekend. A Severe
Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: