颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(18-19)]斐济东北二级热带气旋“莫娜”(04F/09P.Mona) - 缓慢南下,掠过斐济

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更多 发布于:2018-12-30 09:04
98P INVEST 181230 0000 11.8S 156.5E SHEM 15 0

图片:20181230.0040.himawari-8.vis.98P.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11.8S.156.5E.100pc.jpg

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婉音Gwanwyn
热带低压
热带低压
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发布于:2018-12-30 20:00
数值普遍支持发展,步94P的后尘
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-12-30 21:54
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 301430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301430Z-310600ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZDEC2018//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300921ZDEC2018//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/30021ZDEC2018//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B AND REF C ARE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 300000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301110Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY BEFORE HEADING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING TO THE SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 168.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 171.6E, APPROXIMATELY
800 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 30942Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN EXPOSED AND ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE, LOW TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS22 PGTW
300930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 157.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301049Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION.  THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 143.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY
32 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 300922Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WESTWARD THEN QUICKLY
RECURVING EASTWARD TRACK WITH POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT
12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS21
PGTW 300030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADING AREA IN 2.B(2) TO A MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2019-01-01 07:58
TCFA
WTPS23 PGTW 312300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 161.6E TO 9.2S 165.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 161.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311412Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98P IS
LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF MODERATE AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
25 KTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT. A 311029Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EASTERN TRAJECTORY FOR THE FIRST 24-48
HOURS, THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTERWARD. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 98P AS A DISCRETE SYSTEM, THEN A POSSIBLE
MERGER WITH THE CURRENT INVEST 94P TO ITS EAST AS BOTH SYSTEMS TURN
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012300Z.
//
NNNN

图片:sh9819.gif

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台风
台风
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发布于:2019-01-01 08:31
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S 162.5E
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND
REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 06
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
MOVING IN TO A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER DEEPENING.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2019-01-01 08:47编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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5楼#
发布于:2019-01-01 11:43
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 010324 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 163.8E AT
010000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.25 WRAP
YIELDS DT=1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 9.3S 167.6E MOV E AT 19 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 9.7S 171.1E MOV E AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 10.2S 174.7E MOV E AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 11.5S 175.9E MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY OF TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
010800UTC.

图片:FMS 20190101 00UTC.gif

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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2019-01-01 16:26
WOPS03 NFFN 010600 CCB
GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 010745 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTER 998HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.1 165.2 AT
010600UTC. POSITION POOR. TD04F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 80 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DISTURBANCE.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 002.

图片:65662.gif

[炎煌深沉于2019-01-01 20:34编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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发布于:2019-01-02 11:56
第2报TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
280 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 170.1E TO 10.3S 180.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 170.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.//
NNNN

WTPS23 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
280 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 170.1E TO 10.3S 180.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 170.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 168.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 170.7E, APPROXIMATELY
750 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 012145Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED OVERTOP OF, AND OCCLUDING, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW
FROM A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND A FORMATIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN
EASTERN TRAJECTORY FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HOURS FOLLOWED A FAIRLY SHARP
TURN SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS. MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
98P INITIALLY. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE MERGER WITH
INVEST 94P, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY THE COMBINED
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.//
NNNN

WTPS23 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312251ZDEC2018//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
280 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 170.1E TO 10.3S 180.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 170.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012145Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING
INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVERTOP OF, AND
OCCLUDING, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS 98P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40
KTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
AND A FORMATIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EASTERN TRAJECTORY FOR THE
FIRST 24-48 HOURS FOLLOWED A FAIRLY SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS.
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 98P INITIALLY. BEYOND TAU
48, MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE MERGER WITH INVEST 99P, CURRENTLY LOCATED
TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY THE COMBINED SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.
//
NNNN

图片:sh9819.gif

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发布于:2019-01-03 03:19
JTWC稍早前分析出T2.5并升格09P
TPPS10 PGTW 021828
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (N OF FIJI)
B. 02/1800Z
C. 11.20S
D. 177.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 VEERKAMP

SH, 09, 2019010218,   , BEST,   0, 111S, 1773E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,  160,   55,   70,  145, 1001,  200,  60,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, shB82019 to sh092019,

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发布于:2019-01-03 05:13
JTWC首报上望75kt
WTPS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 177.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 177.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 12.7S 177.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 13.4S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 177.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.8S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.6S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.9S 178.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 22.1S 175.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CDO
OBSCURATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY AN 021810Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A
JTWC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 09P IS
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTER FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO SLOW
SOUTHWARD MEANDERING THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A RELATIVELY
STRONG DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PULL TS 09P TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST OF VANUA LEVU. THE TROUGH FILLS AND PULLS RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AND A STRONG STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, TURING TS 09P ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. TS
09P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH OHC VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48, BEFORE BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS TO THE SOUTH
OF FIJI. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE THAT CURRENTLY PREDICTED, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TC 09P TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWING WIDELY
DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE SLOW SOUTHWEST
MEANDER DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THEN SEPARATE
WITH GFS SHOWING A SHARP TRACK SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER SHARP
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. NAVGEM CONTINUES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF FIJI AFTER TAU 72 AND DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. THE GALWEM AND EGRR MODELS DEPICT THE ALTERNATE
SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AND BY TAU 120 LYING SOME 2000 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING UNREALISTICALLY PULLED TO THE EAST BY
THE GALWEM AND EGRR TRACKERS, AND BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE VERY WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS
TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WTPS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/012251ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 177.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 177.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 12.7S 177.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 13.4S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 177.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.8S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.6S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.9S 178.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 22.1S 175.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CDO
OBSCURATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY AN 021810Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A
JTWC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 09P IS
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTER FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO SLOW
SOUTHWARD MEANDERING THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A RELATIVELY
STRONG DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PULL TS 09P TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST OF VANUA LEVU. THE TROUGH FILLS AND PULLS RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AND A STRONG STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, TURING TS 09P ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. TS
09P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH OHC VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48, BEFORE BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS TO THE SOUTH
OF FIJI. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE THAT CURRENTLY PREDICTED, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TC 09P TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWING WIDELY
DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE SLOW SOUTHWEST
MEANDER DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THEN SEPARATE
WITH GFS SHOWING A SHARP TRACK SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER SHARP
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. NAVGEM CONTINUES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF FIJI AFTER TAU 72 AND DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. THE GALWEM AND EGRR MODELS DEPICT THE ALTERNATE
SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AND BY TAU 120 LYING SOME 2000 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING UNREALISTICALLY PULLED TO THE EAST BY
THE GALWEM AND EGRR TRACKERS, AND BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE VERY WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS
TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS23 PGTW 012300).//
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图片:sh0919.gif


图片:09P_021800sair.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-01-03 05:52编辑了帖子]
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