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发布于:2018-12-31 22:10
HKO/TD/12-31 12Z
熱帶低氣壓
在香港時間 2018 年 12 月 31 日 20 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 7.8 度,東經 111.8 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於南海南部的熱帶氣旋會在未來兩三日橫過越南以南海域。

图片:311200_nwp_1834.png


預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度
香 港 時 間位 置熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2019 年 01 月 01 日 20 時北 緯 6.0 度東 經 108.7 度熱帶低氣壓每小時 55 公里
2019 年 01 月 02 日 20 時北 緯 6.2 度東 經 106.6 度熱帶風暴每小時 65 公里
2019 年 01 月 03 日 20 時北 緯 7.3 度東 經 103.4 度熱帶風暴每小時 65 公里
2019 年 01 月 04 日 20 時北 緯 9.4 度東 經 100.0 度熱帶低氣壓每小時 55 公里
2019 年 01 月 05 日 20 時北 緯 10.6 度東 經 97.8 度熱帶低氣壓每小時 55 公里
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发布于:2018-12-31 22:15
JTWC/36W/#02/12-31 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z --- NEAR 7.7N 111.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 111.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 7.0N 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 6.8N 108.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 6.8N 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 7.1N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 8.2N 103.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 10.2N 99.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 11.9N 96.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp362018.20181231131615.gif

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发布于:2018-12-31 22:20
JTWC/36W/#02/12-31 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED
TO CONSOLIDATE. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH SHEARED
NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), HAS DEEPENED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
AND LINED UP TO A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 311057Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
NORTHWEST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY  FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF THAILAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND ALLOW A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF THAILAND.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
LAND INTERACTION AS TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA AFTER TAU 96
WILL CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL
SPREADING TO OVER 300 NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF ON THE LEFT AND NAVGEM
ON
THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:36W_311200sair.jpg

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发布于:2019-01-01 00:00
CMA/TD19/12-31 15Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 311500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 19 INITIAL TIME 311500 UTC
00HR 7.4N 111.2E 1004HPA 15M/S
MOVE WSW 17KM/H
P+12HR 6.7N 109.5E 1002HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 6.3N 108.3E 1000HPA 20M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20181231230000067.jpg

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发布于:2019-01-01 00:39
JMA/TD-a/12-31 15Z
熱帯低気圧
平成31年01月01日01時25分 発表

<01日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 7度00分(7.0度)
東経 110度50分(110.8度)
進行方向、速さ 南西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<02日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 6度05分(6.1度)
東経 108度40分(108.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西南西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

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最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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发布于:2019-01-01 03:52
JMA/TD-a/12-31 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成31年01月01日04時30分 発表

图片:a-00.png


<01日03時の実況>
大きさ    -
強さ    -
    熱帯低気圧
存在地域    南シナ海
中心位置    北緯 7度00分(7.0度)
    東経 110度35分(110.6度)
進行方向、速さ    西南西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧    1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速    15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速    23m/s(45kt)

<02日03時の予報>
強さ    -
存在地域    南シナ海
予報円の中心    北緯 6度50分(6.8度)
    東経 108度25分(108.4度)
進行方向、速さ    西 ゆっくり
中心気圧    998hPa
中心付近の最大風速    18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速    25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径    200km(110NM)
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发布于:2019-01-01 03:53
CMA/TD19/12-31 18Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 311800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 19 INITIAL TIME 311800 UTC
00HR 6.8N 110.8E 1004HPA 15M/S
MOVE WSW 13KM/H
P+12HR 6.4N 109.5E 1002HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 6.2N 108.1E 1000HPA 20M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20190101020000067.JPG

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发布于:2019-01-01 04:59
JTWC/36W/#3/12-31 18Z

图片:wp3618.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 111.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 111.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 5.8N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 5.7N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 5.9N 107.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 6.2N 105.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 7.8N 102.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 9.8N 98.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 11.7N 95.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 110.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND
012100Z.//
NNNN
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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发布于:2019-01-01 05:00
JTWC/36W/#3/12-31 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRUGGLING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
HIGH (30-40 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS
LED TO WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE HIGH VWS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, AND TURNED
MORE DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS THAN
WAS FORECAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF THAILAND AS THE STR EXTENSION RECEDES TO THE
EAST. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG. HOWEVER, HIGH VWS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL LIMIT THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA.
   C. LAND INTERACTION AS TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA AT TAU
96, AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO
30 KTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO OVER 380 NM BY TAU 120, WITH
HWRF AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND NAVGEM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE COAMPS-
GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM MODELS PREDICT HIGHER INTENSITIES, WHILE HWRF
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS MODELS ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
//
NNNN

图片:36W_311800sair.jpg

[327于2019-01-01 08:00编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
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    01-04 20:02
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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发布于:2019-01-01 05:46
CMA/TD19/12-31 21Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 312100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 19 INITIAL TIME 312100 UTC
00HR 6.5N 110.7E 1004HPA 15M/S
MOVE WSW 13KM/H
P+12HR 6.2N 109.4E 1002HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 6.1N 108.2E 1000HPA 20M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20190101050000067.JPG

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  • 327
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    01-04 20:02
sayo-nara.
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