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[WP]菲律宾以东01W - 超远洋西进20天,擦菲北上憾环境不佳 - JMA:GW

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更多 发布于:2019-01-03 09:46
90W INVEST 190103 0000 3.0N 175.0E WPAC 15 1010

图片:20190103.0120.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.996mb.3N.175E.100pc.jpg

[tcfa_gw于2019-01-23 10:43编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • 327
    威望 5
    90W
    01-03 09:50
  • 327
    金钱 5
    90W
    01-03 09:50
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双眼台风
台风
台风
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1楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 10:03
形态也太好了吧
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1420鹦鹉
台风
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2楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 12:43
GFS上望965不过个人觉得可能性不大

图片:xx_model-en-268-0_modusa_2019010218_312_5985_149.png

奔梦之路虽遥远而曲折,但要坚信,你永不孤行。信念将驱走眼前的黑暗,照亮未知的远方!
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 13:00
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030400Z-030600ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030339ZJAN2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030338ZJAN2019//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030153ZJAN2019//
NARR/REFS A, B, AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WAS LOCATED NEAR
6.0N 105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH
CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300 COR) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
175.0E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021535Z SSMI 85GHZ PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LIGHT (05-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK, SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 152.3E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 030300 COR) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:030330abpwsair.jpg

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327
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4楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 14:30
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030339ZJAN2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030338ZJAN2019//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZJAN2019//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WAS LOCATED NEAR
6.0N 105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH
CITY, VI, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300 COR) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 175.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
SURROUNDED BY WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION. A 030422Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
WEAK, SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 152.3E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 030300 COR) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:030500abpwsair.jpg

[327于2019-01-03 14:40编辑了帖子]
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遷躍棋子
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5楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 14:51
327锛欰BPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FO...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
形态优良,发展迅速
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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6楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 20:06
GFS新报认为90W一路西行进入南海,远洋、菲东、南海各有一次明显巅峰

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_7.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_12.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_39.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_47.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_49.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_53.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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7楼#
发布于:2019-01-03 20:16
最新的风场扫描
上图为过滤后,下图为过滤前

图片:LATEST.jpg


图片:LATEST (1).jpg

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发布于:2019-01-04 08:20
GFS新报调强,认为90W可在一天内加强至TS

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_5.png



最新的风场

图片:LATEST.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2019-01-04 10:53
JTWC:T1.0
TPPN10 PGTW 040248
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 2.04N
D. 174.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 VEERKAMP
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