颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝67
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数470
  • 来自
阅读:1743回复:19

[SH(18-19)]科科斯群岛东北热带低压11U(90S) - 西进后原路折返,北侧曾持续烈风

楼主#
更多 发布于:2019-01-13 05:25
90S INVEST 190112 1800 15.0S 124.7E SHEM 15 0

图片:20190112.2100.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.90SINVEST.15kts-150S-1247E.100pc.jpg

[327于2019-01-29 19:00编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 327
    威望 3
    90S
    01-13 08:00
  • 327
    金钱 3
    90S
    01-13 08:00
喜欢2 评分2

最新喜欢:

1202655120265... iam最小值iam最小值
933954
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2013-12-07
  • 最后登录2019-02-17
  • 粉丝46
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数893
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2019-01-13 08:46
BoM:Tropical Low 11U
A tropical low (11U) is likely to develop within a deepening trough over the western Top End of the Northern Territory or adjacent waters late in the weekend (outside the Western Region). It is expected that if the tropical low develops in the trough, it will likely track west to southwest over the Timor Sea during Monday and may be over the Browse Basin on Tuesday with a possibility of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later in the day. In the longer term, the system will track to the west-southwest throughout next week - possibly as a tropical cyclone - well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Low
回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝457
  • 关注37
  • 发帖数18051
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2019-01-15 14:30
正式11U

A tropical low (11U) has developed well northwest of the Kimberley and was located near 13S 120E at 1pm WST. It is forecast to continue moving westwards and is very unlikely to move close to the West Australian coast. The system is weak at the moment and is in a generally unfavourable environment. There is only a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Thursday onwards. On Friday it may pass south of Christmas Island and then possibly move close to the Cocos Islands on Sunday or Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
[meow于2019-01-15 14:58编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝35
  • 关注26
  • 发帖数1531
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2019-01-15 21:18
TPXS10 PGTW 151212
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NW OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 15/1130Z
C. 13.64S
D. 118.90E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MILAM
 

图片:avn-animated.gif

图片:bd-animated.gif


SH, 90, 2019011512,   , BEST,   0, 136S, 1189E,  15, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  130,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝61
  • 关注51
  • 发帖数2219
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2019-01-17 16:02
TPXS10 PGTW 170335
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NW OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 16/0300Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS
AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 VEERKAMP
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
POCKETBOX
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
  • 注册日期2018-07-28
  • 最后登录2019-01-24
  • 粉丝2
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数92
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2019-01-21 22:24
Suspect area West of Cocos Islands :
The convection is moderate and located only over the Southern semi-circle yet. This morning
ASCAT swath shows a wide circulation with 10-kt winds. While crossing the 90th meridian
Wednesday evening or Thursday, this system could begin to develop thanks to a decrease of the
Easterly shear aloft, a good poleward divergence and especially to a westerly burst in the low-levels
on the equatorial side that could be linked to an Equatorial-Rossby wave. GFS and IFS both suggest
the formation of a significant system by the end of the week, with a globally Wesward track on the
Northern side of the mid-latitude high pressure belt.
The risk that this system becomes a moderate tropical storm becomes moderate from
Thursday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
POCKETBOX
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
  • 注册日期2018-07-28
  • 最后登录2019-01-24
  • 粉丝2
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数92
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2019-01-22 22:17
Suspect area West of Cocos Islands :
Satellite images and 0742Z AMSR2 show that the circulation is a bit elongated, with most of deep
convection in the southern part. Partial ASCAT data confirm the asymmetric structure with
maximum winds up to 20kt in the polar feeding and only 10/15kt at north. Center is located close to
12.4S/93.5E.
Tomorrow, the low should enter our AoR. In the followings days, environmental conditions are
mixed, partially conducive for development.The strengthening westerly then north-westerly
equatorial inflow will favor the symmetrization of the circulation, while at south trade wind feeding
will remain excellent. However the environmental air mass will remain very dry and the equatorial
convergence a bit weak. Determinisitic and ensemble models suggest the deepening of a small
system due to the dry environment.
The risk that this system becomes a moderate tropical storm becomes low on Thursday and
moderate from Friday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝61
  • 关注51
  • 发帖数2219
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2019-01-23 02:52
SSD分析出T1.0,JTWC重新开始分析
TXXS28 KNES 221814
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B. 22/1730Z
C. 11.3S
D. 93.7E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST
RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT LIMITING THE INITIAL CLASSIFICATION TO T1.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...TURK

TPXS10 PGTW 221847
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NW OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 22/1800Z
C. 11.29S
D. 93.73E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 MARTIN
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝150
  • 关注68
  • 发帖数5351
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2019-01-23 10:00
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 230000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/230000Z-231800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222221ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E, APPROXIMATELY
11.7 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221604Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND ROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTXS21 PGTW 222230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY
470 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221327Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED
PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. A 221327Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING STATUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5S 93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221510Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 KNOTS). MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK BEFORE SOME MODELS SHOW A
QUASISTATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TRACK. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:222130abpwsair.jpg

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-02-20
  • 粉丝61
  • 关注51
  • 发帖数2219
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2019-01-23 20:17
TPXS10 PGTW 231214 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NW OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 23/0900Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS
AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 VEERKAMP
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部