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[SH(18-19)]莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第6号“德斯蒙”(10S.Desmond) - 22日凌晨登陆莫桑比克中部

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更多 发布于:2019-01-17 17:34
SH, 92, 2019011618,   , BEST,   0, 234S,  348E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 92, 2019011700,   , BEST,   0, 233S,  353E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 92, 2019011706,   , BEST,   0, 233S,  357E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:vis0.gif

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发布于:2019-01-17 20:41
AWIO20 FMEE 171134
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2019/01/17 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin is in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern East of 65E. Over the Eastern region, the
convective activity is mainly concentrated on the equatorward side of the NET.
Over the Western half of the basin, convection remains strong North of 15S and between 55 and
65E, within an area of low pressure. Over the Southern part of the Mozambique channel, deep
convective activity remains strong into a convective line pattern within the monsoon flow along the
coast of south of Mozambique, organized around a low over land located approximately near
24S/33E.
Tomorow Friday, the interaction with an upper level trough should stretch the low level clockwise
eddy and deepen the low. Saturday, behind the upper level trough, the arrival of a subtropical low
level ridge over the southern part of the Mozambique channel will increase the polerward low level
convergence. Thus, beneath the narrow upper level ridge, the environmental conditions could
become conducive from Saturday on condition that the low shift over sea and takes away from the
Mozambique coastlines.
Within the next 5 days, the likelihood that a system become a tropical storm is low from
Saturday over the southern part of the Mozambique channel.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.

AWIO20 FMEE 171135
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2019/01/17 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin is in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern East of 65E. Over the Eastern region, the
convective activity is mainly concentrated on the equatorward side of the NET.
Over the Western half of the basin, convection remains strong North of 15S and between 55 and
65E, within an area of low pressure. Over the Southern part of the Mozambique channel, deep
convective activity remains strong into a convective line pattern within the monsoon flow along the
coast of south of Mozambique, organized around a low over land located approximately near
24S/33E.
Tomorow Friday, the interaction with an upper level trough should stretch the low level clockwise
eddy and deepen the low. Saturday, behind the upper level trough, the arrival of a subtropical low
level ridge over the southern part of the Mozambique channel will increase the polerward low level
convergence. Thus, beneath the narrow upper level ridge, the environmental conditions could
become conducive from Saturday on condition that the low shift over sea and takes away from the
Mozambique coastlines.
Within the next 5 days, the likelihood that a system become a tropical storm is low from
Saturday over the southern part of the Mozambique channel.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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发布于:2019-01-18 01:26
(动图)GFS新报支持92S在莫桑比克海峡内回旋增强并登陆莫桑比克

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_safr_fh0-120.gif

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发布于:2019-01-18 02:40
JTWC:UPGRADED TO LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.7S 34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE,
MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INRAFRED IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
BUT WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER LAND WITH MINIMAL, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC, AND A BALL
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 171401Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 92S IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING OVERSEA WHERE
IT WILL BE IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW THAT 92S WILL LIKELY TURN BACK INTO LAND AFTER
ONLY A FEW DAYS, CREATING A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY, COOLER
AIR TO BE BROUGHT EQUATORWARD INTO 92S, INHIBITING ITS POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg



(动图)ECMWF新报亦支持其成旋

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_safr_fh0-144.gif

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发布于:2019-01-18 19:52
MFR: 热带扰动第6号
Tropical Disturbance 06S:
Position at 09UTC : 22.4S / 35.8E
Movement : West-North-West 4kt
Maximum mean winds : 25kt
Central pressure : 1002 hPa
Near Mozambican coasts, the minimum followed for a few days transit now over sea. The associated convection is strong and quite fluctuating over sea. With the upper-level interaction and the narrow upper level ridge, the tropical disturbance could find favorable conditions during the weekend and intensify before moving to the Mozambican coast in the evening of Sunday.
sayo-nara.
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发布于:2019-01-18 21:06
TPXS11 PGTW 181227
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (OVER MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 18/1200Z
C. 22.61S
D. 37.09E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MARTIN

图片:vis0-fcst.gif

图片:avn0-fcst.gif

图片:bd0-fcst.gif



TXXS27 KNES 181204
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)
B.  18/1130Z
C.  23.1S
D.  37.5E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN .2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET=1.0
AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIM

图片:vis0.gif

图片:bd0.gif

图片:avn0.gif

[炎煌深沉于2019-01-18 21:08编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-01-19 02:55
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 34.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 181349Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TURNING. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND TRACKS NORTHWARD BEFORE LAND
INTERACTION LIMITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:92S_gefs_latest.png

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7楼#
发布于:2019-01-19 12:37
TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 165 NM RADIUS OF 22.2S 38.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL (UL) ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS (5-15KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
BUT INCREASING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DEFINED POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C)
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200400Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9219.gif

图片:92S_190400sair.jpg



ABIO10 PGTW 190430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/190430Z-191800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL (UL) ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS (5-15KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
BUT INCREASING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DEFINED POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C)
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
190400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

图片:190330abpwsair.jpg

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8楼#
发布于:2019-01-19 20:15
WTIO30 FMEE 190715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20182019
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 6
2.A POSITION 2019/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 37.0 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/19 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2019/01/20 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
36H: 2019/01/20 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
48H: 2019/01/21 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/01/21 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED YET AND IN FACT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE ILL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTEX ARE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THEREFORE
THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER. THE GIVEN
POSITION IS A MEAN POSITION AND DO NOT FIX ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORTEX.
AS A MID-LAT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE WITHIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AREA.
TOMORROW, BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS FROM THE SOUTH-WEST IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THIS GENERAL
FORECAST, SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
SPECIALLY REGARDING THE FORWARD MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL WEAK STRUCTURE SEEMS DUE TO ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THIS
ADVERSE THERMODYNAMICS CONDITIONS MAY STILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONTAINS. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW THE STARTING OF A DEEPENING TREND. THERE
IS CURRENTLY NO AGREEMENT OF THE GUIDANCE ON THAT POINT AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE FORECAST.
OVERALL THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH INTENSITY AND
TRACKS (AT A LESSER EXTEND)
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH-WEST FROM SUNDAY, NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANIED WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH OR WITHOUT
DEEPENING. THIS WEATHER MAY SPREAD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS FROM
MONDAY NEAR THE BEIRA AREA.=

图片:SWI$06_20182019.png

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  • 注册日期2018-05-02
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发布于:2019-01-19 22:00
WTIO30 FMEE 191302
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20182019
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 6
2.A POSITION 2019/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/20 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2019/01/20 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
36H: 2019/01/21 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SHORTLY AFTER 10 UTC, A RATHER WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS
APPEARED MORE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. IT HAS
MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARDS AFTER THAT TIME AND LOOSE SOME DEFINITION.
THOSE FLUCTUATIONS STILL SUPPORT TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER. THE CENTRAL AREA STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH-WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
AS A MID-LAT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE WITHIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AREA.
TOMORROW, BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THIS GENERAL
FORECAST, SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD STILL EXIST. GFS 06Z IS NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH IFS/00Z AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF GFS AND IFS.
THE INITIAL WEAK STRUCTURE SEEMS DUE TO ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (CF
PREPICITABLE WATER MIMIC ON CIMSS WEBSITE). THIS ADVERSE
THERMODYNAMICS CONDITIONS MAY STILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE TOMOROW
DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONTAINS. FROM
MONDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT
COULD ALLOW THE STARTING OF A DEEPENING TREND. HOWEVER, INCREASING
EASTERLY SHEAR AND LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAINS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTS. GFS 06Z IS ALSO LESS AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
INTENSIFICATION AND COMES IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE IFS/00Z
SOLUTION.
OVERALL THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH-WEST FROM SUNDAY, NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANIED WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD
TOMORROW BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS AND
ALONG THE COASTS NORTH OF BEIRA ON MONDAY.=

图片:SWI$06_20182019.png

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