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[SH(18-19)]马达加斯加以南中等热带风暴第7号“埃克藏”(93S.Eketsang) - 短暂成为热带气旋

楼主#
更多 发布于:2019-01-21 08:15
93S INVEST 190121 0000 12.8S 49.9E SHEM 15 0

图片:20190120.2220.f15.x.ir1km_bw.93SINVEST.15kts-128S-499E.066pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2019-01-27 03:46编辑了帖子]
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    93S
    01-21 08:30
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    93S
    01-21 08:30
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2019-01-21 11:00
JTWC表示或与10S互动发展
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER SOME THIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCES
FOR TC 10S WILL BE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION (INVEST 93S), LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE AT AROUND TAU 30. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. SOMETIME
AFTER 10S IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE, A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE,
POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF 93S AND THE REMNANTS OF 10S MERGING, IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK SOUTHWARD.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

图片:wm5vor.GIF

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POCKETBOX
热带低压-GW
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2楼#
发布于:2019-01-21 22:23
Suspect area to the North-East of Madagascar:
In the end of last night, a rather well-defined circulation emerged at the Southern border of the
convection on the colored composition imagery, just before its landing over the Masoala peninsula
around 03Z. This weak system brings important rainfall over the Northern regions of Madagascar. A
convergence area with the monsoon flow is also influencing the weather over the Comoros
archipelago and Mayotte by favoring a strong thunderstorm activity. The last available runs still
suggest that a residual low may come back over sea in the South of the Mozambique Channel
sometime tomorrow. Over warm waters, the low could benefit from a good poleward divergence
aloft to redevelop significantly. The main available models are in agreement over this scenario.
The risk that this system becomes a moderate tropcial storm becomes high from Wednesday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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5811艾达
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2019-01-22 07:51
92S再编?
本人注册时手滑,注册名为5827艾达 IDA(艾达) NMC:110m/s
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4楼#
发布于:2019-01-22 09:00
JTWC:LOW
5811艾达锛92S再编?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
92S就是10S

ABIO10 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/212130Z-221800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0S 36.4E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 212100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0S 46.2E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211846Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR WITH ITS PRIMARY CONVECTION FLARING
AND DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND THE MADAGASCAR COASTAL WATERS
HAVE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE
WEST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING. THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TC 10S, LOCATED TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED WITH THE FINAL WARNING FOR TC
10S AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:212130abpwsair.jpg

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5楼#
发布于:2019-01-22 14:30
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 220630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/220630Z-221800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0S 36.4E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 212100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S 46.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF FORMATIVE BANDING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

图片:220545abpwsair.jpg

[327于2019-01-22 14:40编辑了帖子]
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POCKETBOX
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6楼#
发布于:2019-01-22 22:14
Zone of Disturbed weather north of Europa:
After crossing Madagascar island during the last 24 hours, the broad circulation is once again
offshore, north of Europa. last satellite images seems to indicate that the center of this vast low
pressure area is located near 18.5S/41.8E at 10Z. A low level vortex was shortly visible in the
eastern semi-circle, embedded in the broader flow. Partial ASCAT data and ground data from Juan
de Nova and Europa indicate that the feeding is rather good with around 15kt on each side. Last
microwave data do not show any sign of a more defined structure in the inner core.
Under the upper ridge, shielded from the shear, over warm waters, and with a good equatorial
convergence thanks to the monsoon flow, environmental conditions appears conducive for a
cyclogenesis. Only its current ill defined inner core seems to limit its deepening potential at short
range. Later this week, while moving south-east ahead of an deep trough in the south-west on
Friday, the conditions are expected to become unfavorable. The increase of the north-westerly upper
constraint and the decay of the oceanic potential south of 27/28S are likely to end the
intensification.
Numerical guidance is in a good agreement with the track and the cyclogenesis, but differ on the
deepening rate. Arome and GFS are among the most prone to deepen while IFS suggest a slower
development, due to the broad inner core. Naming stage is likely in the next 48 hours.
The risk that this system becomes a moderate tropcial storm becomes high from tomorrow
Wednesday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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7楼#
发布于:2019-01-23 02:47
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.0S 36.4E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 212100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 221604Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE
WESTERN PORTION. A 220602Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-20 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN INCREASING
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH, WHILE
INTENSIFYING, AND ROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE TAKING
AN EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221327Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO
THE WEST. A 221327Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 10-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STATUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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8楼#
发布于:2019-01-23 09:00
JTWC:TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 222230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.8S 39.1E TO 24.5S 41.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 40.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E, APPROXIMATELY
11.7 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221604Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND ROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232230Z.
//
NNNN

图片:sh9319.gif

图片:93S_222230sair.jpg

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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
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9楼#
发布于:2019-01-24 07:41
TCFA Cancelled
WTXS21 PGTW 232230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222221ZJAN19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTSX21 PGTW 222230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 40.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
TOLLARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A
CONVERGENT ZONE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 231916Z AMSU 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FEW SMALL RAIN BANDS AROUND THE LLCC AND
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. A
231918Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH
A LARGE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. 93S IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY, WHILE
TRANSITIONING FROM A HYBRID TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 232230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.//
NNNN

图片:sh9319.gif



ABIO10 PGTW 232300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/232300Z-241800ZJAN2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZJAN2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232221ZJAN2019//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 231800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.5S 122.1E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.9S 40.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TOLLARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENT ZONE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. A 231916Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FEW SMALL RAIN
BANDS AROUND THE LLCC AND VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION. A 231918Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST. 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING
SLIGHTLY, WHILE TRANSITIONING FROM A HYBRID TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
CIRCULATION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2019-01-24 20:55编辑了帖子]
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