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[SH(18-19)]TCFA - 约克角半岛热带低压13U(95P) - 26日上午登陆昆士兰州,徘徊于卡湾沿岸陆地

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更多 发布于:2019-01-22 08:40
95P INVEST 190122 0000 10.4S 142.6E SHEM 15 850

图片:vis0-lalo.gif

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发布于:2019-01-23 10:00
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 222130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222130Z-230600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 125.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3S 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 25.5 NM NORTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221953Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD TURNING AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ITSELF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(30-32C) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ON EITHER SIDE OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, DEVELOPING IN
SEVERAL DAYS, THEN MOVING OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) HAS DISSIPATED.
ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:222130abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2019-01-23 15:00
A weak monsoon trough extends across the northern Top End and northern Cape York Peninsula. A tropical low currently lies embedded within the trough near the Cape York Peninsula. This low is expected to move slowly southwest or southeast over coming days, and is likely to develop if over water.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Thursday:Low.
Friday:Moderate.
Saturday:Moderate.

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY
40 NM NORTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230000Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SHOWING A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER CAPE YORK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:230545abpwsair.jpg

图片:20190123.0000.metopb.89h.95P.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.12.3S.142E.100pc.jpg

图片:58.track.png

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发布于:2019-01-24 09:00
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 232000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/232000Z-240600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 141.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY
66 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 231557Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE
ELONGATED LLCC ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. A 231233Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 95P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 95P WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER, SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
LEAD TO WIDE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. MODELS THAT KEEP THE
LLCC OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THOSE THAT BRING THE TRACK OVER CAPE YORK DO NOT DEVELOP A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:232130abpwsair.jpg

图片:20190123.1557.gw1.89hbt.95P.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.12.3S.140.9E.97pc.jpg

图片:20190123.1235.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95P.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.125S.1423E.25km.jpg

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发布于:2019-01-24 14:00
A monsoon trough extends over the northern Top End across to a tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, near the Cape York Peninsula. At 130pm CST Thursday, this tropical low was located at 11.5S, 141.3E, about 150km to the northwest of Weipa. It is expected to move slowly southwest or southeast through the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or western Cape York Peninsula over coming days, with a high chance of being tropical cyclone strength on Saturday. By Sunday, the system may be located over the southeast Gulf, or may have moved over land.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region:
Friday:Moderate.
Saturday:High.
Sunday:Moderate.

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.3S 140.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 240412Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS DIMINISHING AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DIURNAL MINIMUM. A 240013Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
FURTHER DEPICTS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLC AND SHOWS A LARGE
SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW-MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 95P
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. LAND INTERACTION IS LEADING TO DIFFERENT
TRACK AND INTENSITY SOLUTIONS
, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF KEEPING THE
CENTER OVER WATER, GFS KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND, AND UKMO
SHOWING THE CENTER CROSSING OVER THE YORK PENINSULA INTO THE CORAL
SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:240500abpwsair.jpg

图片:20190124.0412.gw1.89hbt.95P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.2S.140.3E.96pc.jpg

图片:20190124.0013.mta.ASCAT.wind.95P.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.122S.1403E.25km.jpg

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_aus_fh0-240.gif

图片:95P_gefs_00z.png

图片:43.track.png

[327于2019-01-24 15:00编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-01-24 16:00
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 140.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1200: 12.3S 140.7E:     030 [060]:  025  [045]: 1005
+12:  24/1800: 12.8S 140.6E:     045 [080]:  025  [045]: 1003
+18:  25/0000: 13.0S 140.7E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1002
+24:  25/0600: 13.5S 141.0E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1001
+36:  25/1800: 14.6S 141.4E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]: 1001
+48:  26/0600: 15.7S 141.3E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  994
+60:  26/1800: 16.3S 140.7E:     130 [235]:  045  [085]:  994
+72:  27/0600: 17.1S 140.2E:     145 [270]:  045  [085]:  994
+96:  28/0600: 17.7S 137.9E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1003
+120: 29/0600: 17.4S 136.1E:     280 [515]:  025  [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Centre loacted using combination of Weipa radar and satellite imagery, fix is
considered good.

Deep convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre over the
past few hours, primarily over the western flank, although there is some signs
of convective development over the eastern flank as well. Dvorak analysis based
on curved band wrapping 0.3, yielding DT1.5. Current intensity set at 25 knots.


Motion has been slowly to the south-southwest under the influence of the mid
level ridge to the east and the digging upper low over the far eastern Northern
Territory. These features should remain the dominant steering influences until
Sunday, when the upper low is forecast to weaken, allowing the mid level ridge
over central Queensland to steer the system onto a southwesterly track. Most
dynamical model guidance is broadly consistent with this evolution.  

The environment is currently very favourable for development, with very weak
vertical wind shear, and good upper level outflow in all quadrants, combined
with sea surface temperatures around 30C. SHIPS guidance is suggestive of RI in
the next 24 hours, but this does not seem reasonable given the relatively weak
and broad nature of the vortex at the present time. As the system moves south,
it will gradually come under the influence of the upper low, leading to an
increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear, forecast to reach around 20 knots
by Friday evening. This may be partially offset by warmer SSTs over the
southeastern Gulf, leading to stronger convection and a more resilient vortex.
However, the centre may also be very close to land along the west coast of Cape
York Peninsula at this time which may hamper development. The official forecast
calls for development at around the standard rate for the next 24 hours,
followed by slower and eventually arrested development. This calls for the
system topping out at category 1, although there is potential for the system to
reach category 2 status on Saturday.      

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

图片:IDQ65001.png

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发布于:2019-01-24 21:42
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1318 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 140.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1800: 13.1S 140.7E:     030 [060]:  025  [045]: 1003
+12:  25/0000: 13.3S 140.8E:     045 [080]:  030  [055]: 1002
+18:  25/0600: 13.8S 141.1E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1001
+24:  25/1200: 14.2S 141.4E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1002
+36:  26/0000: 15.5S 141.4E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  997
+48:  26/1200: 16.3S 141.0E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  994
+60:  27/0000: 16.9S 140.5E:     130 [235]:  045  [085]:  994
+72:  27/1200: 17.5S 139.8E:     145 [270]:  045  [085]:  994
+96:  28/1200: 18.0S 137.6E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1002
+120: 29/1200: 17.6S 135.9E:     280 [515]:  020  [035]: 1007
REMARKS:
Convection has continued to develop around 13U, with a new band developing on
the eastern flank in recent hours. Motion has continued to the south-southwest.

Position good based on animated imagery from Weipa radar and recent microwave
passes. Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.25 to 0.3 wrap
averaged over the past few hours. Final T is 1.5. NESDIS ADT is higher at 2.2.

A mid-level ridge to the east and an upper low over the far eastern Northern
Territory remain the dominant steering influences, and this is expected to be
the case until Sunday, when the upper low is forecast to weaken, allowing the
mid level ridge over central Queensland to steer the system onto a southwesterly
track. Most model guidance is broadly consistent with this evolution.  

The environment remains currently very favourable for development, with weak
vertical wind shear and a strongly diffluent upper pattern producing good
outflow on both the poleward and equatorward sides of the system. SHIPS guidance
is suggestive of RI in the next 24 hours, but given that the system is still
becoming established, have forecast more gradual instensification. As the system
moves south, it will gradually come under the influence of the upper low,
leading to an increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear, forecast to reach
around 15 knots by Saturday morning and 30 knots by Sunday morning. This may be
partially offset by warmer SSTs over the southeastern Gulf, however the centre
may also be very close to land along the west coast of Cape York Peninsula at
this time which may hamper development. The official forecast calls for
development at approximately the standard rate for the next 24 hours, followed
by slower developmnt and eventually plateauing at a high category 1 system.
However, there is potential for the system to reach category 2 status on
Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

图片:IDQ65001.png


  Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 24 tropical low 12.6S 140.7E 35
+6hr 4 am January 25 tropical low 13.1S 140.7E 60
+12hr 10 am January 25 tropical low 13.3S 140.8E 80
+18hr 4 pm January 25 tropical low 13.8S 141.1E 105
+24hr 10 pm January 25 tropical low 14.2S 141.4E 130
+36hr 10 am January 26 1 15.5S 141.4E 165
+48hr 10 pm January 26 1 16.3S 141.0E 200
+60hr 10 am January 27 1 16.9S 140.5E 235
+72hr 10 pm January 27 1 17.5S 139.8E 270
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发布于:2019-01-25 00:54
JTWC:TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/ (INVEST 95P)/
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 140.7E TO 16.7S 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
140.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 140.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. A 241136Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS POCKETS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
ORGANIZED LLCC. A 240013Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT
CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95P IS
CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY
WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING OVER LAND. BASED ON
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 95P
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251600Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9519.gif


图片:95P_241600sair.jpg

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总版主-南亚高压
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发布于:2019-01-25 03:39
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1935 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 140.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0000: 13.6S 141.0E:     030 [060]:  030  [055]: 1000
+12:  25/0600: 13.9S 141.2E:     045 [080]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  25/1200: 14.4S 141.4E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1001
+24:  25/1800: 15.0S 141.5E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  998
+36:  26/0600: 16.1S 141.3E:     090 [165]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  26/1800: 16.8S 140.9E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  992
+60:  27/0600: 17.7S 140.4E:     130 [235]:  040  [075]:  995
+72:  27/1800: 18.2S 139.6E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1002
+96:  28/1800: 18.7S 137.4E:     190 [355]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 29/1800:             :              :            :    
REMARKS:
Position good based on animated imagery from Weipa radar. The system continues
to show improved curvature and banding in the deep convection. Dvorak analysis
is based on a curved band pattern with a somewhat tenuous 0.45 wrap through the
northern quadrants, averaged over the past few hours. DT is 2.5, however final T
held at 2.0 due to constraints. NESDIS ADT is 2.5.

The system has moved steadily southwards during the past few hours under the
steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. However, a slight shift to the
south-southeast is forecast during the next 12 hours as the monsoon flow to the
north of the system deepens and strengthens. This is likely to take the system
close to, or over, the western Cape York Peninsula coast by tonight.

This track uncertainty translates to uncertainty in the intensity forecast, as
close proximity to land is one factor which will limit further development of
the system. The environment otherwise currently remains very favourable for
development, with weak vertical wind shear and a strongly diffluent upper
pattern producing good outflow on both the poleward and equatorward sides of the
system. However, as the system moves south, it will gradually come under the
influence of an upper trough over central Australia. This will lead to an
increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear, which by Saturday night should be
sufficient to curb any further intensification of the system.

The official forecast calls for development at approximately the standard rate
for the next 24 to 36 hours, after which the system plateaus in intensity at
high category 1. However, there is uncertainty attached to this, with both
intensification to category 2 and failure to achieve tropical cyclone intensity
at all being credible alternative scenarios.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

图片:IDQ65001.png


  Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 25 tropical low 13.3S 140.7E 35
+6hr 10 am January 25 tropical low 13.6S 141.0E 60
+12hr 4 pm January 25 tropical low 13.9S 141.2E 80
+18hr 10 pm January 25 tropical low 14.4S 141.4E 105
+24hr 4 am January 26 1 15.0S 141.5E 130
+36hr 4 pm January 26 1 16.1S 141.3E 165
+48hr 4 am January 27 1 16.8S 140.9E 200
+60hr 4 pm January 27 1 17.7S 140.4E 235
+72hr 4 am January 28 tropical low 18.2S 139.6E 270
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热带风暴
热带风暴
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发布于:2019-01-25 12:00
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0054 UTC 25/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 139.9E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: north [010 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0600: 12.8S 140.3E:     050 [095]:  030  [055]: 1000
+12:  25/1200: 13.1S 140.8E:     065 [120]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  25/1800: 13.8S 141.2E:     075 [140]:  035  [065]:  998
+24:  26/0000: 14.5S 141.3E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  995
+36:  26/1200: 16.0S 141.1E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  27/0000: 17.3S 140.4E:     130 [235]:  045  [080]:  993
+60:  27/1200: 18.0S 139.7E:     150 [275]:  030  [060]:  999
+72:  28/0000: 18.6S 138.5E:     165 [310]:  030  [055]: 1002
+96:  29/0000: 18.8S 136.7E:     210 [390]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 30/0000:             :              :            :    
REMARKS:
Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low level centre that is tracking
northwards and as a result there is fair to good confidence in the location of
the system. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with
around a 0.2-0.4 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were 1.5 and 2.0
respectively. FT was based on PAT.

The low-level circulation appears to be moving in a northwards direction, but it
is expected to redevelop a track back towards the west coast of Cape York
Peninsula during today under the influence of the monsoonal flow to the north.
As the system becomes more organised and vertically developed it is anticipated
that it will adopt a track towards the south to southeast due to a mid-level
ridge situated to the east.

The environment is conducive for development, with low vertical wind shear and a
strongly diffluent upper pattern producing good outflow on both the poleward and
equatorward sides of the system. At this stage, there remains a high chance that
the low will form into a tropical cyclone off the west coast of Cape York
Peninsula on Saturday. The system is currently forecast to peak at category 1
intensity, but given the environment it is possible it could reach category 2.
Alternatively, there is also the potential scenario that the system could fail
to form into a tropical cyclone given there is the possibility that it could
make landfall about the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as early as Saturday
morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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