颱風巨爵
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[SH(18-19)]罗德里格斯岛以西强热带气旋第9号“格莱娜”(13S.Gelena) - 10日清晨近距离掠过罗德里格斯岛 - MFR:110KT JTWC:120KT

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更多 发布于:2019-02-01 05:08
97S INVEST 190131 1800 8.3S 57.4E SHEM 15 0

图片:20190131.2000.msg-1.ir.97S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.8.3S.57.4E.100pc.jpg

[327于2019-02-16 17:00编辑了帖子]
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    MFR:105KT
    02-09 15:55
  • 327
    威望 3
    97S
    02-01 08:00
  • 327
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    97S
    02-01 08:00
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renzhetegong
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 18:56

图片:LATEST (12).jpg

图片:cyclogenese (3).png

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renzhetegong
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2楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 19:50
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 041200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/041200Z-041800ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 71.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 785
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040850Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE
CENTRALLY LOCATED MASS OF CONVECTION WITH SOME FRAGMENTARY BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO FORMATIVE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THIS REGION OF THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND REACH 35 KNOTS WITHIN
THE NEXT 36-54 HOURS. JGSM IS DISSENTING, FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST 97S INSTEAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 57.8E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040558Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING THOUGH STILL WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL
POCKET OF CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN FORMATION TIMING
BETWEEN 060000Z (ECMWF) AND 080600Z (GFS) AND THE UKMO SHOWING NO
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM, ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair (1).jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-05 01:22编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 19:55
SH, 97, 2019020400,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  576E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 97, 2019020406,   , BEST,   0, 112S,  578E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
[2018.26W于2019-02-04 20:22编辑了帖子]
1822 26W 山竹 Mangkhut 65 m/s 9月7日
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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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4楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 22:20
Suspect area southeast of Agalega :
The 0448UTC ASCAT swath allows to define a clockwise low level circulation towards 12S/59E
with maximum winds of about 15kt but which remains rather limited on the east side of the
circulation. The 0216UTC SSMIS microwave data validates this circulation, which remains low.
Some numerical models significantly increase this circulation. In view of ASCAT data, this
approach is not currently being taken by RSMC Météo-France, although this area will intensify in
the coming days, which should remain limited, being constrained by the system 08-20182019 which
is developing further to the East. However, this suspected area presents a risk of cyclogenesis for
the next few days.
Within the next 2 days, the risk of a tropical storm developing becomes very high from
Tuesday around 70E for the system 08-20182019 and becomes moderate for the suspect area
southeast of Agalega

图片:cyclogenese.png

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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
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5楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 02:33
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 57.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 57.6E, APPROXIMATELY 492
NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041453Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WEAK, BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOT WINDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 69.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 712
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041247Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE
CENTRALLY LOCATED MASS OF CONVECTION WITH SOME FRAGMENTARY BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND REACH 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:20190204.1453.f17.91h.97S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.12.1S.57.6E.100pc.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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wwwawa
台风
台风
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6楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 10:43

图片:QQ截图20190205104152.png


图片:QQ截图20190205104256.png



注意这是EC的预报
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933954
台风
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7楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 14:25
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 050630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050630Z-051800ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 473
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645
NM NORTH OF. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
041721Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041722Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS TO HIGH.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190205.0105.noaa19.89h.97S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.7S.56.8E.080pc.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-05 16:54编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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8楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 14:50
热带扰动第9号
WTIO30 FMEE 050741
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2019/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 55.1 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/05 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/02/06 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED YESTERDAY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO SOME MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR. LATEST MW DATA SUGGEST SOME LACK OF ORGANISATION IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING CURRENTLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24/48 HRS AS A DEEP HIGH TO MID-LEVELS MID-LAT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED PASS SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE UP TO THURSDAY MORNING AS
IT WILL BE LOCATED IN-BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. A NORTH-WESTWARDS DRIFT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH-WEST. FROM THURSDAY AND UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A DEEP
NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LAT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A IFS/UKMO MEAN TRACK
CORRECTED FROM THE INITIAL EAST ERROR OF THE CENTER'S POSITION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE SST IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE.=

图片:SWI$09_20182019.png

[炎煌深沉于2019-02-05 16:07编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
热带低压
热带低压
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9楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 18:04
SSD:T1.5
TXXS23 KNES 050625
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97S)

B.  05/0530Z

C.  12.6S

D.  54.8E

E.  THREE/MET-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...0.3 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0
AND THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...HOSLEY
1822 26W 山竹 Mangkhut 65 m/s 9月7日
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