红豆棒冰冰
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[SH(18-19)]斐济东北99P - 16.0S 177.5W

楼主#
更多 发布于:2019-02-05 03:14
99P INVEST 190204 1800 10.0S 171.0W SHEM 15 0

图片:sm20190204.1900.himawari-8.vis.99P.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.10S.171W.100pc.jpg

[327于2019-02-07 11:11编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
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1楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 10:57
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 042230 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.9 168.9WAT
042100UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
VIS/EIR IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD06F LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:SHGMSCOL (1).JPG

[renzhetegong于2019-02-05 11:07编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 13:51
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5S 171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 77 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050452Z PARTIAL AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 99P LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE
TO SEVERE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 99P
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99P WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH, BUT DO NOT AGREE ON
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:评级图.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-05 16:42编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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3楼#
发布于:2019-02-06 08:25
JTWC撤评级
ABPW10 PGTW 052000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052000Z-060600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1W, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0S 174.3W, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051741Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
050835Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WRAPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING STATUS IN 36-48
HOURS AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-06 09:39编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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4楼#
发布于:2019-02-06 09:51
SH, 99, 2019020600,   , BEST,   0, 169S, 1757W,  20, 1001, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG


[炎煌深沉于2019-02-06 09:52编辑了帖子]
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