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[SH(18-19)]TCFA - 斐济东南热带低压06F(90P) - 东侧曾持续烈风

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更多 发布于:2019-02-06 00:46
SH, 90, 2019020512,   , BEST,   0, 100S, 1743W,  15, 1000, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20190205.1622.goes-15.ir.90P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.10S.174.3W.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-06 08:31
JTWC:MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 052000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052000Z-060600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1W, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0S 174.3W, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051741Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
050835Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WRAPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING STATUS IN 36-48
HOURS AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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2楼#
发布于:2019-02-06 09:54
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 052322 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.8 174.4W AT
052100UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
VIS/EIR IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
*********************************************************************************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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发布于:2019-02-06 14:58
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 174.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 174.9W, APPROXIMATELY
371 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SOMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060535Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P IS ON THE BORDER OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS) BUT BENEFITING FROM GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
FOR DEVELOPMENT. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
SEVERAL DAYS, AND SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 90P TO BECOME
SUBTROPICAL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING STATUS IN 36-48 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190206.0535.f18.91h.90P.INVEST.25kts.999mb.9.7S.174.9W.080pc.jpg

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2018.26W
热带风暴
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发布于:2019-02-06 19:09
 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 060901 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.8 175.9W AT
060900UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
EIR IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
 
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC]. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
DIFFLUENT REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

 SH, 90, 2019020518,   , BEST,   0,  89S, 1749W,  25,  999, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1002,  240,  55,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 90, 2019020600,   , BEST,   0,  97S, 1749W,  25,  999, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1001,  120,  55,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 90, 2019020606,   , BEST,   0, 108S, 1752W,  25,  998, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1001,  110,  55,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
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发布于:2019-02-07 06:59
JTWC:TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 062130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 175.6W TO 19.0S 176.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 175.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
174.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 175.8W, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061644Z SSMIS F-18
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ASYMMETRIC LLC
WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE LLC. 90P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26 TO 28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD, INTENSIFYING AS A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANELLED BY
072130Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9019.gif

图片:062115abpwsair.jpg

图片:90P_062130sair.jpg

图片:20190207.0000.himawari-8.vis.90P.INVEST.25kts.998mb.14.5S.175.8W.100pc.jpg

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6楼#
发布于:2019-02-07 09:40
FMS升格热带低压
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 062346 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 176.0W AT
062100UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
*********************************************************************************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG



GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070053 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, 06F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.4S 177.0W AT
070000UTC. POSITION POOR. TD06F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
THE CENTRE OF TD06F CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER WATERS ONLY.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 001.
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热带风暴
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发布于:2019-02-07 09:43
SH, 90, 2019020700,   , BEST,   0, 153S, 1763W,  30,  996, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1001,  120,  40,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
已经报出TD了
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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8楼#
发布于:2019-02-07 14:56
JTWC:REMAINS HIGH
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062121ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 175.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 176.3W, APPROXIMATELY
380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070106Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH AN EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE (20-30 KTS) AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT 90P WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK, POSSIBLY TAKING ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 062130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190207.0106.gw1.89pct89h89v.90P.INVEST.30kts.996mb.15.3S.176.3W.72pc.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-07 17:22
TPPS11 PGTW 070918
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (E OF FIJI)
B. 07/0850Z
C. 17.59S
D. 176.36W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   DAVIS

图片:20190207.0850.himawari-8.ir.90P.INVEST.30kts.996mb.16.5S.176.2W.100pc.jpg


图片:20190207.0850.himawari-8.irbd.90P.INVEST.30kts.996mb.16.5S.176.2W.100pc.jpg

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