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[SH(18-19)]斐济东南一级热带气旋“尼尔”(07F/14P.Neil) - JTWC曾定为副热带风暴,短暂成为热带气旋

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更多 发布于:2019-02-08 20:00
SH, 91, 2019020806,   , BEST,   0, 110S, 1784E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20190208.1130.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11S.178.4E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-09 00:27
07F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081618 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.8S 174.6W AT
081200UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS TO
THE SOUTH WITHOUT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD070F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.4S 179.4E
AT 081200UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
*************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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发布于:2019-02-09 08:01
JTWC:MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082330Z-090600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6S 176.8E IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET, THEREFORE, 90P IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28
TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM
AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AND IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD 200MB/500MB TROUGH WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 081739Z WINDSAT 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT EXTENSIVE AREAS OF FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. RECENT MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD TURNING
WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC.
A 082020Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT
100NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, WEAK (10 TO 20 KNOTS) CIRCULATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN PARA.
2.B.(1) AND ADDED MEDIUM AREA (SUBTROPICAL) IN PARA. 2.B.(3).//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190208.1739.coriolis.37pct37h37v.91P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.8S.178.2W.070pc.jp


图片:20190208.2020.mta.ASCAT.wind.91P.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.148S.1782W.25km.jpg


图片:20190208.2020.mta.ASCAT.wind.91P.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.148S.1782W.25km.noqc.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-09 08:12
FMS升格热带低压
GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081935 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.6S 179.0W AT
081800UTC. POSITION POOR. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD07F CENTRE IN THE THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 082007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 179.0W AT 081800
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE LLCC. ORGANISATION
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.30 WRAP
YIELDS DT=2.0. PT=2.0 AND MET=2.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 16.9S 176.5W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.2S 175.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.3S 175.8W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 23.2S 174.9W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 090200 UTC.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG



Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [994HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.9S 173.8W AT
082100UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS TO
THE SOUTH WITHOUT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD070F [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.8S 177.0W AT
0812100UTC. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY FOR TD07F.

*********************************************************************
*************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.
[炎煌深沉于2019-02-09 08:18编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-02-09 08:32
JTWC认定为副热带气旋
SH, 91, 2019020806,   , BEST,   0, 129S, 1792W,  15, 1010, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020812,   , BEST,   0, 139S, 1788W,  30, 1000, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020818,   , BEST,   0, 147S, 1784W,  35,  996, SS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020900,   , BEST,   0, 156S, 1778W,  35,  996, SS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1002,  240, 100,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
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台风威力
热带风暴
热带风暴
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发布于:2019-02-09 12:45
WTPS11 NFFN 090000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090146 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 176.5W
AT 090000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.1S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.2S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 22.5S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.1S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.
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发布于:2019-02-09 13:10
命名NEIL
FKPS01 NFFN 090455
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20190209/0400Z
TCAC:                NFFN
TC:                  NEIL
NR:                  01
PSN:                 S1712 W17554
MOV:                 SSE 15KT
C:                   994HPA
MAX WIND:            35KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       09/1000 S1800 W17518
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  40KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      09/1600 S1854 W17454
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      09/2200 S1948 W17436
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR:      10/0400 S2042 W17418
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20190209/0700Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090525 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 175.9W AT 090400 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 TO 31
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55-0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. PT AND
MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091600 UTC 18.9S 174.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100400 UTC 20.7S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101600 UTC 22.5S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110400 UTC 24.5S 173.4W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NEIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.

图片:65643.gif


图片:65660.gif



Time (UTC)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr4 am February 9117.2S175.9W110
+6hr10 am February 9118.0S175.3W140
+12hr4 pm February 9118.9S174.9W165
+18hr10 pm February 9119.8S174.6W195
+24hr4 am February 10120.7S174.3W220
+36hr4 pm February 10122.5S173.7W280
+48hr4 am February 11124.5S173.4W345
+60hr4 pm February 11126.4S173.5W430
+72hr4 am February 12128.2S173.7W520

[炎煌深沉于2019-02-09 13:28编辑了帖子]
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327
327
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发布于:2019-02-09 13:50
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082342Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOW AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) BELOW SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION, WITH
20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE LLC. MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO A DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-28C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE CORAL
SEA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK
TOWARDS VANUATU, WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BEFORE IT INTERACTS OR IS
ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 178.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 177.7E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A
BROAD 200MB/500MB TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY AND A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 081739Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT EXTENSIVE
AREAS OF FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD,
POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RECENT MSI AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD TURNING WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LINES AND NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC. A 082020Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, WEAK
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:090500abpwsair.jpg

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炎煌深沉
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发布于:2019-02-09 17:10
GALE WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090718 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 SOUTH 175.6
WEST AT 090600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.7S 175.6W at 090600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
091800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.6S 174.8W AT 091800 UTC
AND NEAR 22.0S 174.1W AT 100600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 014.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090803 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL 07F CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 175.6W AT 090600
UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500
HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.6S 174.8W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 22.0S 174.1W MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 24.4S 173.3W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 27.1S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NEIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090926 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 175.6W AT 090600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500
HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.6S 174.8W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 22.0S 174.1W MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 24.4S 173.3W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 27.1S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NEIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

图片:65643.gif

图片:65660.gif

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG


   Time (UTC)  Intensity Category  Latitude
(decimal deg.)
 Longitude
(decimal deg.)
 Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
 0hr  6 am February 9  1  17.7S  175.6W  110
 +6hr  12 pm February 9  1  18.7S  175.1W  140
 +12hr  6 pm February 9  1  19.6S  174.8W  165
 +18hr  12 am February 10  1  20.8S  174.5W  195
 +24hr  6 am February 10  1  22.0S  174.1W  220
 +36hr  6 pm February 10  1  24.4S  173.3W  280
 +48hr  6 am February 11  1  27.1S  172.6W  345
 +60hr  6 pm February 11  tropical low  29.7S  172.7W  430
 +72hr  6 am February 12  tropical low  31.3S  173.1W  520

[炎煌深沉于2019-02-09 17:48编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
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发布于:2019-02-09 18:08
JTWC:T2.0
TPPS11 PGTW 090946
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (W OF AMERICAN SAMOA)
B. 09/0900Z
C. 18.17S
D. 174.87W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 1.5 AND PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   09/0406Z  17.68S  176.18W  GPMI
   09/0611Z  17.93S  176.28W  WIND
   KIENZLE

图片:20190209.0900.himawari-8.irbd.91P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.18S.176.2W.100pc.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-09 19:35编辑了帖子]
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