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[SH(18-19)]斐济以东热带低压10F(93P)

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更多 发布于:2019-02-10 14:48
SH, 93, 2019021006,   , BEST,   0, 146S, 1697E,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20190210.0610.himawari-8.vis.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.6S.169.7E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-12 00:56
FMS编号10F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 111649 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F CENTRE [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.7S
176.2W AT 111500UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST WITH LLCC DISCERNABLE DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO THE 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
*************

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S
162.6E AT 111500UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD09F MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
SUPPUSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARDS
INITIALLY THEN STATIONARY WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


*********************************************************************
*************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.5S
177.8E AT 111500UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT INTIALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
**************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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发布于:2019-02-12 08:30
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112130Z-120600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112051ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN
AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 994 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7S 177.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 177.8W, APPROXIMATELY
165 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111526Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE EAST. 92P LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS)
AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WARM AT 27-28C HOWEVER, SSTS WILL
BECOME AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND OVER COOLER WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP, WITH POSSIBLE RECURVATURE TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH INVEST 96P WHICH WILL BE TO ITS NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH SOME
HIGHER WINDS IN A NORTH-SOUTH BAND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111723Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED,
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. 93P IS LOCATED IN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND WEAK DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS IN A
WEST-EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM . MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN AREA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) AS LOW. //
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190211.1723.f18.91pct91h91v.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.3S.178E.090pc.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-12 17:33编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-02-12 09:16
FMS升格热带低压
GALE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 120047 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 179.5W AT 120000UTC.
POSITION FAIR. TD08F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD10F CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 120111 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S
179.5W AT 120000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 17
KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT INITIALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
[炎煌深沉于2019-02-12 09:20编辑了帖子]
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热带风暴
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发布于:2019-02-12 10:02
贴几张图~

图片:rgb-animated.gif

图片:wv-animated.gif

图片:swir_lalo-animated.gif

图片:vis-animated.gif

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327
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发布于:2019-02-12 15:00
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 120600Z-130600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 120000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 177.8E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S 177.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY
188 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE EAST. A
120123Z AMSR2 GW1 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTH.
92P HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AND BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION WITH 15P, POTENTIALLY BEING
ABSORBED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 179.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 178.8W, APPROXIMATELY
481 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA ON DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 120125Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LLC WITH LITTLE OVERALL STRUCTURE. 93P CURRENTLY HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32
CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD, BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION WITH 15P, AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

图片:20190212.0125.gw1.36pct36h36v.93P.INVEST.25kts.998mb.12.9S.178.8W.90pc.jpg

图片:120515abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2019-02-13 10:39
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130100Z-130600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 122100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DIMINISHING CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN
AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) IN THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 178.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 177.3W, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH. INVEST
93P IS LOCATED IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, FAVORABLE, 27-29C SST, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT RAPIDLY INCREASES TO THE WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND 92P
BEFORE BOTH ARE ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.1 TO LOW//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2019-02-13 12:30编辑了帖子]
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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327
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发布于:2019-02-13 14:20
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 130600Z-140600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 130000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 130300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DIMINISHING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A 122039Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
SHOWS TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LLC AND A LARGE SWATH OF 25
KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN AN OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS A LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 178.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 177.3W, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH.
INVEST 93P IS LOCATED IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, FAVORABLE (27 TO 29 CELSIUS) SST,
AND LOW (5 TP 10 KT) VWS THAT RAPIDLY INCREASES TO THE WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND 92P
WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER SEAS AND IS
POTENTIALLY ABSORBED INTO 15P.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

图片:130530abpwsair.jpg

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论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2019-02-13 18:42
FMS发布一号特别海洋公告
SPECIAL MARINE BULLETIN NUMBER ONE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 08.45PM ON WEDNESDAY 13TH OF FEBRUARY 2019.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NORTHERN LAU WATERS, KORO SEA AND KADAVU PASSAGE.
SITUATION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE [996HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5 SOUTH 178.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF KABARA AND 135 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
ONO-I-LAU AT 0600 PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 55 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KM/HR.
TD10F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/HR.
FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS. HIGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR NORTHERN LAU WATER, KORO SEA AND KADAVU PASSAGE:
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL MARINE BULLETIN FOR FIJI WATERS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1145PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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发布于:2019-02-13 20:51
Activité cyclonique prévue au cours des 7 prochains jours
La dépression tropicale modérée OMA se trouve près de l'Ile de Santo au nord du Vanuatu. D'autre part, il existe un risque faible qu'une dépression tropicale modérée se forme au nord-ouest de Futuna dans le flux de mousson actif.
Sur la Nouvelle-Calédonie : A partir de samedi, les conditions météorologiques seront influencées par la dépression tropicale OMA présente sur le Nord du Vanuatu. Le minimum issu de la seconde zone suspecte vers Futuna ne présente pas de menace.

图片:FR-MF-NC,CYCLONE,PNG-IMAGENC-ACTIVITE-CYCLONIQUE-BASSIN-PSW.png

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