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强热带风暴
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[SH(18-19)]莫桑比克海峡94S - 23.4S 43.1E

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更多 发布于:2019-02-17 09:18
94S INVEST 190217 0000 22.2S 31.1E SHEM 15 1010

图片:20190217.0000.msg-1.ir.94S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.22.2S.31.1E.100pc.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-20 10:26编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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1楼#
发布于:2019-02-17 20:36

Suspect area over the Africa:
The area of low to mid level enhanced vorticity monitored since the last 48 hours over Africa is
located today over Zimbabwe and moves eastwards at 7-8 kt. The associated thunderstorm activity
is rather minimal at this time with few burst of deep convection over the northern part. This low is
expected to reach the Mozambique channel Monday morning where environmental conditions are
still expected to be rather conducive up to Tuesday night with good oceanic contain north of 24°S
and a strong upper level divergence fueled by a deep upper trough approaching from the
South-West. From Tuesday night, the vertical wind shear should increase and limit the intensity of
the system. A general sout-eastwards track is already anticipated by most of the guidance.
This system is expected to cause some significant weather over part of the Southern Mozambique
channel within the next few days: From Sunday night up to Monday night over coastal areas of the
Mozambique channel between Beira and Inhambane - From Monday night, over the south-western
coastal areas of Madagascar.
Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is moderate
Monday over the southern Mozambique Channel becoming high from Tuesday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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meow
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2楼#
发布于:2019-02-17 21:23
炎煌深沉锛歋uspect area over the Africa:
The area of low to mid level enhanced vorticity monitored since the last 48 hours over Af...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
似乎改了叙述。

Suspect area over the southern Africa:

The area of low/mid level vorticity monitored for several days over Africa is moving above Mozambique today, and is forecast to reach the coastline tomorrow morning as a narrow trough. Then, thanks to good environmental conditions (excellent lower convergence and good upper divergence ahead of the upper trough), a closed low level circulation should build over the central Channel and start a deepening phase. Numerical guidance are in a good agreement with this scenario, diverging mostly on the quickness of the circulation building. Deterministic GFS is notably slower on the system movement but often wrongly during the last days. At longer range, the intensification potential could be limited by the presence of a north-westerly upper constraint and a dry air mass in the surroundings. The vertical wind shear impact will mostly depend on the precise location against the upper trough. By the end of the south-easterly track is likely to bring the system closer to the south-western malagasy coastline.

Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is moderate onMonday over the southern Mozambique Channel and becomes high from Tuesday.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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renzhetegong
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3楼#
发布于:2019-02-18 02:30
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S
34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, BROAD LOW LEVEL
TURNING OVERLAND IN EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. A 171443Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE
INDICATES THERE IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY. 94S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS) AND WEAK DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKER TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, 94S WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS)
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BUT VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ITS EMERGENCE OVER WATER AND
THE STRENGTH OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SPECTRUM OF INTENSITY VARIES FROM
GFS HAVING BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT TO ECMWF INDICATING 94S WILL REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair (1).jpg

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热带低压纳纳
热带低压-GW
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4楼#
发布于:2019-02-18 15:13
JTWC认为其最西达到了东经27.9°,深入内陆。
SH, 94, 2019021606,   , BEST,   0, 194S,  279E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:94S_LOC.PNG

图片:201994S.png

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热带低压纳纳
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5楼#
发布于:2019-02-18 15:18
津巴布韦金矿被洪水淹没致60多人死亡 救援持续
2019-02-16 17:59 央视新闻客户端

当地时间15日,津巴布韦政府官员说,该国西马绍纳兰省发生的洪水淹没金矿事故死亡人数已超过60人。目前,相关的搜救工作仍在继续。
津巴布韦地方政府部长朱利·莫约在一份声明中说,经过调查,事发时在两座金矿下作业的采金者在60至70人之间,由于洪水突然淹没矿井,这些人没有机会逃生。
当地居民: 那些被困地下的人是我们的家人,我们请求政府把他们找回来。
莫约说,目前救援工作仍在进行,已从矿井中抽出了大量积水,救援人员当地时间16日将下井继续搜救。
来源:环球网
[热带低压纳纳于2019-02-18 15:21编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2019-02-19 04:23
JTWC对后半段路径进行修改。94S转向偏南方向移动。

图片:94S.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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7楼#
发布于:2019-02-19 07:23
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION
(INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 34.6E, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 39.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA
ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF VERY
BROAD, ELONGATED TURNING EMBEDDED WITH SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES. A
181455Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THERE IS WEAK, SCATTERED
CONVECTION LINEARLY ORIENTED IN THE AREA. 94S IS LOCATED ON THE CUSP
OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE EASED OFF
ON SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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炎煌深沉
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8楼#
发布于:2019-02-19 08:41
Suspect area over the southern part of the Mozambical channel:
The suspect area take now a narrow trough pattern axis along 23S/38E-34S/49E, as show by the
Ascat data of 06h12Z, within several lows seem to deepen. Pressure and winds of the station of
Europa reveal the deepening tendency over this area.
Satellite imagery show at least two sheared circulations south of Europa Island, and in a less
defined way a third one near the Mozambical coast North of Bassas da India.
Thanks to good environmental conditions mainly in low levels (excellent lower convergence and
good upper divergence ahead of the upper trough, mainly North of 20S where vertical wind shear
remains moderate) available Numerical guidance develop a low level circulation over the central
Channel and start a deepening phase, tracking quickly southeastwards.
Numerical guidance are in a good agreement with this scenario, diverging mostly on the quickness
of the circulation building. Deterministic IFS is notably slower on the system movement then GFS.
According to CIMMS data the Northwesterly vertical wind shear is moderate north of 25S, is
forecast to strengthen at the end of the day, and seems to limit the cyclogenesis potential.
At longer range, the intensification potential could be limited by the presence of a north-westerly
upper constraint and a dry air mass in the surroundings. The vertical wind shear impact will mostly
depend on the precise location against the upper trough. By the end of the south-easterly track is
likely to bring the system closer to the south-western malagasy coastline.
Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is high on
Tuesday over the southern Mozambique Channel and becomes moderate from Thursday, then
weak up to Friday

图片:cyclogenese.png

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炎煌深沉
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9楼#
发布于:2019-02-19 20:40
Suspect area over the southern part of the Mozambical channel:
A wide and fully exposed low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) is located in the vicinity of
Europa Island. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1000 hPa according with the Europa ground level
observations. Winds reach 30 kt far of the center within the low level inflows. The northwestward
vertical windshear is strong ahead a dynamic upper level trough . It favors a strong convection with
multicellular cells over southwestern Madagascar coastlines.
Animated water vapor imagery shows that that the upper level trough forcing within the baroclinic
area has shifted over Madagascar and not over the LLCC. In these conditions, the risk of a tropical
transition decreases. The LLCC is forecasted to evacuate toward the south-east as it experiences a
strong vertical windshear.
Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is moderate
over the southern Mozambique Channel and becomes weak from Thursday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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