颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝67
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数488
  • 来自
阅读:9589回复:49

[WP]棉兰老岛以东热带低压03W - 快速稳定西行,登陆棉兰老岛 - JMA:TD

楼主#
更多 发布于:2019-03-12 03:32
95W INVEST 190311 1800 3.8N 161.6E WPAC 15 0

图片:20190311.1910.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.8N.161.6E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2019-03-20 16:00编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • 327
    威望 5
    95W
    03-12 06:00
  • 327
    金钱 5
    95W
    03-12 06:00
喜欢1 评分2

最新喜欢:

1202655120265...
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2019-03-12 12:37
GFS支持95W一路西行至菲东,但没有明显发展

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_fh0-144.gif


图片:95W_tracks_latest.png


图片:95W_gefs_latest.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝154
  • 关注69
  • 发帖数5691
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2019-03-13 13:30
JTWC:MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAR2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130239Z AMSR2 89GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD
REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 122233Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 20KT WIND BARBS IN THE CORE
AND ISOLATED 25KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER THE FRAGMENTED
BANDING. 95W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICTING
POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE ECMWF AND UKMO
BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:130530abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190313.0239.gw1.89hbt.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.4N.155.3E.55pc.jpg


图片:20190312.2233.mta.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.54N.1553E.25km.noqc.jpg


图片:gfs_pres_wind_wpac_14.png

[327于2019-03-13 14:00编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2019-03-13 15:17
JMA预报48h内TD

图片:19031309.png


图片:19031409.png


图片:19031509.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2019-03-13 22:50
风力达标,但结构不佳

图片:20190313.1046.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.20kts-1006mb.57N.1529E.25km.jpg


图片:LATEST.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2019-03-14 03:52
JMA预报24h内TD

图片:19031321.png


图片:19031421.png


图片:19031521.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2019-05-24
  • 粉丝41
  • 关注26
  • 发帖数1963
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2019-03-14 10:35
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 149E WEST 15 KT.

图片:19031409.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-03-14 12:30编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2019-03-14 13:06
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140200Z-140600ZMAR2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY
562 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL BASE GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130239Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD REGION OF FLARING
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A 122233Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED AND TIGHT
CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 20KT WIND BARBS IN THE CORE AND ISOLATED
25KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER THE FRAGMENTED
BANDING. 95W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
PREDICTING POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE
ECMWF AND UKMO BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DISTURBANCE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.3S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY,
PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 131932Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BANDA SEA SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) AS
LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:abpwsair.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2019-03-14 14:49
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZMAR2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 562
NM SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL BASE GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140322Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. 95W IS
CURRENTLY UNDER LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY
ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICTING POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE ECMWF AND UKMO BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL
SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 151.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140318Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BANDA SEA SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20190314.0322.gw1.89pct89h89v.95W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.6N.151.2E.97pc.jpg

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-05-25
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注80
  • 发帖数2890
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2019-03-14 15:48
JMA仍然预报24h内TD

图片:19031509.png


图片:19031609.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部