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[北大西洋]加拿大东南NA20-0412 - 横扫美国中东部,引发较大规模龙卷风爆发 - OPC:SW 978mb 50KT WPC:976mb

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更多 发布于:2019-04-12 12:19
激烈天气版的相关讨论帖:http://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/read.php?tid=79096&fid=103


这次美国温气三连击中的第二个

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[wwwawa于2019-04-18 23:37编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-04-13 17:49

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 13 2019 - 12Z Mon Apr 15 2019

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected today for eastern
portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...The severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat will shift east to the
Appalachians for Sunday...

...Warmer temperatures expected for the Great Plains on Monday after very
cold Saturday...

A potent spring storm system will move through the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley today and is expected to bring widespread
hazardous weather to the region. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage through the remainder of the morning across Texas and the
southeastern half of Oklahoma as an area of low pressure begins to
organize. The threat for hazardous weather will pickup during the
afternoon and evening hours as favorable conditions aloft and near the
surface materialize. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Moderate
Risk for severe storms, including tornadoes, large hail and damaging
straight line winds, from portions of far eastern Texas into northern
Louisiana and western Mississippi through tonight. While these storms will
also be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding, the greatest threat for
flash flooding will exist a bit farther north from the Oklahoma/Texas
border into much of Arkansas and the Memphis metropolitan area. It is here
that a widespread 2-4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday morning.

The storm system will lose some of its intensity for Sunday but will
continue to pose a threat for severe storms and flash flooding into the
Tennessee, Upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians. One to two inches of rain
is expected ahead of the low pressure center (forecast to track from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into New England) and attendant cold front and
severe storms will remain possible. On the north side of the system,
temperatures will be cold enough to support light ot moderate snowfall
accumulations from northern Illinois into Lower Michigan.

High temperature departures will be well below average for most of the
Great Plains today as high pressure takes hold, but the largest
departures, in excess of 30 degrees below average, will be in the Texas
Panhandle today with forecast highs in the 30s and low 40s. These
temperatures combined with gusty northerly winds will result in wind
chills in the 20s at times. A change in wind direction back toward
southerly will allow a warm-up however with highs expected in the 70s and
80s from West Texas into the Central Plains for Monday, roughly 10-15
degrees above average.

Unsettled conditions will be in store for the northwestern U.S. through
the weekend starting with a cold front which will cross Washington and
Oregon later today. Rain and higher elevation snow will follow the frontal
passage inland bringing light to moderate accumulations. Rain and snow
showers will extend through the day on Sunday but should remain light and
scattered in nature. Yet another storm system will approach the West Coast
late Sunday night likely bringing a renewed round of rain and mountain
snow for the beginning of the work week to Oregon and northern California.

Otto

Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
[wwwawa于2019-04-13 19:56编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-04-14 12:06

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 14 2019 - 00Z Tue Apr 16 2019

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected tonight for portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, shifting into the
Ohio Valley and the East on Sunday...

...Warm temperatures in the East on Sunday, with record high overnight
mins possible. Temperatures will warm significantly the next few days
across the Great Plains...

A potent spring storm system will continue tracking through the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley tonight. Strong thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall is likely from the central Gulf States to the western
Tennessee Valley where both SPC and WPC have slight to moderate risks of
severe weather and excessive rainfall, respectively, continuing through
tonight. Refer to the outlooks from these centers for additional details.
By Sunday, this storm system should lose some of its intensity but will
continue to pose a threat for severe storms and localized heavy to
excessive rainfall from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley and
eventually moving into the Eastern states. SPC has a slight to enhanced
risk for severe weather from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and
northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, while WPC has a marginal to slight risk
for excessive rainfall. On the north side of the system, temperatures
should be cold enough to support light to moderate snow accumulations from
northern Illinois to Lower Michigan, and also across far northern Maine.

Behind the cold front, high temperature departures will be well below
average across the eastern Plains and the Mississippi River Valley on
Sunday, with daytime highs 10 to 20+ degrees below normal, especially
across parts of the Upper Midwest. In the East on Sunday, temperatures
will be above average, with some record warm overnight temperatures
possible. Following the frontal passage, temperatures to moderate to near
or below normal by Monday. Across the western Great Plains, temperatures
will warm significantly this weekend and by Monday could be 10 to 20
degrees above normal.

Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend out west starting with
a cold front crossing the Pacific Northwest states tonight and into the
northern Intermountain West/Rockies tomorrow. Rain and higher elevation
snows will accompany this system, some moderate accumulations possible in
the higher elevations. The best chance for snow will be across parts of
northwest Wyoming where as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible through
Monday. Yet another storm system will approach the West Coast on Monday,
bringing a renewed round of rain and mountain snows for the beginning of
the work week to Oregon and northern California.

Santorelli


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发布于:2019-04-14 12:43

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发布于:2019-04-14 12:52

国外天气预报
制作:刘一   2019 年  04 月  14 日  09

北美洲东部有较强雨雪
西亚东部有较强降雨

一、重点天气

1、北美洲东部有较强雨雪

未来三天,受地面气旋东移影响,北美洲东部有中到大雨(雪),局地有暴雨(雪)。美国中西部、墨西哥北部等地地面风力较大。

二、未来三天各大洲具体预报

(三)北美洲:东部有较强雨雪

4月14日20时-4月17日20时:阿拉斯加地区、加拿大中西部、拉布拉多半岛、美国西北部、美国东部等地有小到中雪(雨)或雨夹雪。其中,拉布拉多半岛南部有大到暴雪,美国东部有大雨,局地暴雨。美国中西部、墨西哥北部等地地面风力较大。

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发布于:2019-04-14 17:13

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2019 - 12Z Tue Apr 16 2019

...The threat for severe thunderstorms moves into eastern U.S. today...

...Possible flooding and flash flooding from the Appalachians into
portions of the Northeast...

...Roller coaster ride of temperatures continues from the Plains to the
East Coast...

The spring storm system responsible for an outbreak of severe storms from
eastern Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday will
continue to move east today and tonight. The greatest threat today will be
from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Central to Southern Appalachians where
the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk in place. A line of
severe thunderstorms, ongoing from early Sunday morning, is expected to
move into the Southeast through the remainder of the morning and early
afternoon hours. Some fragmentation and possible weakening of this line is
expected but a second round of storms is anticipated farther north into
the Appalachians later this afternoon. Both the southern and northern
locations of this storm system will see locally heavy rain from
thunderstorms but the more susceptible terrain of the Appalachians and
portions of New York will see a threat for flooding/flash flooding from
one to perhaps as much as three inches of rain by Monday morning. On the
north side of the system, temperatures should be cold enough to support
light to moderate snow accumulations from northern Illinois into Lower
Michigan during the day into the early part of tonight. The combination of
warm temperatures, rain and lingering snow cover across portions of
northern New England will generate a threat for flooding of rivers and
streams through Tuesday morning.

Behind the cold front, today's high temperature departures will be well
below average from the Upper Great Lakes to the central and western Gulf
Coast, roughly 10 to 20 degrees below typical mid-April average highs.
This cool weather, though somewhat moderated, will reach east of the
Mississippi River for Monday which will be in contrast to the above
average temperatures in store for today. Across the Great Plains, a chilly
start this morning will be followed by temperatures much closer to average
for today's daytime highs, and well into the 80s for Monday from western
Kansas into West Texas (10 to 15 degrees above average).

Unsettled weather will continue through Monday for the western U.S. as a
cold front moves inland during the day today. Rain and higher elevation
snow will accompany this system with some moderate to locally heavy
snowfall accumulations possible in the higher elevations of western
Wyoming with as much as 1 to 2 feet through Monday. Yet another storm
system will approach the West Coast on Monday, bringing a renewed round of
rain and mountain snows to California, Oregon and the Great Basin for the
second half of Monday into Tuesday.

Otto


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发布于:2019-04-15 12:11

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...STORM WARNING...
.LOW INLAND NEAR 41N81W 991 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND NEAR 43N76W 989 MB. WITHIN 660 NM
SE AND 780 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND NEAR 46N71W 985 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E
OF A LINE FROM 40N68W TO 36N70W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND NEAR 47N68W 981 MB. WITHIN 660 NM E
AND SE...AND 840 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 19
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N58W 980 MB. WITHIN 660 NM NE...840 NM
SE...AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 26
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 41N58W.
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发布于:2019-04-15 12:55

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 15 2019 - 00Z Wed Apr 17 2019

...The severe weather and heavy rainfall threat continues into the East
tonight...

...Unsettled weather out West with snowfall accumulations possible in the
mountains of northwest Wyoming and the Sierra Nevada...

The spring storm responsible for an outbreak of severe storms from eastern
Texas to the Southeast this weekend will continue moving east tonight, and
off the Atlantic coast by Monday morning. The greatest threat tonight for
severe weather will be across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states where the
Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in place. There is a slight
risk south of this area along the cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may
accompany these storms, with WPC highlighting a slight risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding across parts of the Appalachians into upstate New
York. The combination of warm temperatures, rain, and lingering snow cover
across portions of New England may also lead to a threat for river
flooding through Tuesday morning. Temperatures on the north side of this
system should be cold enough to support light snow showers and
accumulations across parts of lower Michigan and far northern Maine
tonight.

Out West, unsettled weather will continue through Monday as a cold front
moves eastward towards the Plains tonight. Rain and higher elevation snows
will accompany this system, especially across the northern Great Basin and
Rockies with moderate to heavy snow accumulations possible in the higher
elevations of western Wyoming. A second system approaches the coast on
Monday, which should bring a renewed round of rain and mountain snows to
California, Oregon, and the Great Basin for the second half of Monday
through Tuesday. The best chance for accumulating snowfall will be in the
Sierra Nevada where upwards of a foot may be possible in the highest
elevations.

Behind the cold front in the East, temperatures across the Ohio Valley and
into the East should return to near or below normal by Monday. Meanwhile,
across the Great Plains, daytime highs on Monday are forecast to be well
into the 80s, which is 10 to 20 degrees above average. And out West, below
average temperatures should persist through Tuesday as a series of cold
fronts move through the region.

Santorelli
[wwwawa于2019-04-15 13:18编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2019-04-15 13:01

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发布于:2019-04-15 18:12

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2019

...Breezy and colder in wake of departing East Coast storm system... ...Unsettled weather out West as next storm system enters lower 48 with
potentially active weather across the central and southern U.S. for
Wednesday...
A strong area of low pressure will move through New England today, but the
severe weather threat should be quickly winding down by late morning. A
line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will shift into the western Atlantic
early this afternoon leaving behind scattered rain and snow shower across
northern New York and northern New England. A flood threat will remain on
area rivers across northern New York into northern New England as well due
to Sunday night's rainfall combined with snow melt over the weekend. Gusty
winds and colder temperatures will affect the northern Mid-Atlantic into
the Northeast today on the heels of the departing low center, but warmer
weather will be in store for Tuesday. In fact, high temperatures in the
70s to low 80s are in store for a broad section of the country on Tuesday
and Wednesday from the Central and Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. Highs in the 90s will be likely closer to the Rio Grande
Tuesday and Wednesday.
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