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[IO]孟加拉湾中部极强气旋风暴“法尼”(BOB 02/01B.Fani) - 克服风切强势爆发,3日上午登陆印度奥里萨邦 - IMD:115KT JTWC:135KT CMA:60m/s

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更多 发布于:2019-04-24 11:20
91B INVEST 190424 0000 2.1N 91.5E IO 15 0

图片:20190424.0250.himawari-8.vis.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2.1N.91.5E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2019-05-05 18:01编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    05-02 20:56
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    04-24 11:25
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    04-24 11:25
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热带低压纳纳
热带低压-GW
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1楼#
发布于:2019-04-24 12:26
91B及其周边系统分布

图片:91B.png

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2楼#
发布于:2019-04-24 16:10
ECMWF新报显著调强

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_11.png



GFS亦支持其发展

图片:gfs_mslp_uv850_india_23.png


图片:91B_gefs_latest.png

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LDKQ
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发布于:2019-04-24 20:02
JTWC修改报文
JTWC此前修改00Z报文↓
91B INVEST 190424 0000 0.2N 89.5E IO 15 1010
tropicaltidbits首页“风暴消息”提供信息↓
91B INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 24, 2019:
Location: 0.2°N 89.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
[LDKQ于2019-04-24 20:11编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
强热带风暴
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发布于:2019-04-24 20:52
WTIN20 DEMS 240600
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 24.04.2019

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
24.04.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 24.04.2019.



BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN
(EIO) AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA ON 25TH APRIL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST ACROSS EAST COAST OF SRI
LANKA AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT
48 HRS.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH  BAY OF BENGAL  AND TO
THE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 8.50N. SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH & SOUTHWEST BAYOF BENGAL AND
CENTRAL  & SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA





PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



0-24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


LOW


HIGH


HIGH


HIGH



ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN REGION AND WEAK CONVECTION LAY OVER
EXTREME ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



0-24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



REMARKS:



MANY NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (GEFS), IMD GFS AND NCEP GFS SUGGEST FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
AREA  AROUND 25TH OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST BOB TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRILANKA COAST. THESE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT AND LANDFALL OVER TAMIL
NADU COAST ON 30TH AND IT WILL THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THEREAFTER IT
IS LIKELY TO RECURVE LEADING TO EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND REINTENSIFICATION.



THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 FOR NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE TO
PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 FOR THE NEXT SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS.
HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &
CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL REGION. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS ABOUT 30\U02DAC OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN (EIO). THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 70-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ABOVE
REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS DECREASING BECOMING 50-60 KJ/CM2 OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB OFF TAMILNADU / ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS. REGION OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY AROUND 15 X10-6SEC-1 LIES OVER EIO AND ADJOINING
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BOB WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTP 500 HPA LEVEL. A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ZONE OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE AROUND 30 X10-5SEC-1
LIES OVER THE REGION. A ZONE OF POSITIVE CONVERGENCE AROUND 10
X10-5SEC-1 LIES OVER THE EIO AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BOB. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KT) OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN &
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 50N.



CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER EIO AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA
AROUND 25TH APRIL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST ACROSS EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA
AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48
HRS.
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Luigi728
论坛版主-副热带高压
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5楼#
发布于:2019-04-24 21:20
LDKQ锛欽TWC此前修改00Z报文↓
91B INVEST 190424 0000 0.2N 89.5E IO 15 1010
tropicaltidbits首页“风暴消息”提供信息↓
91B INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
0.2N這是要刷新畫眉和阿耆尼紀錄的節奏?!?
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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热带低压纳纳
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发布于:2019-04-24 21:31
Luigi728锛0.2N這是要刷新畫眉和阿耆尼紀錄的節奏?!?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
应该是0.1N,这是真的低到了极点……01W最低是0.3N。
IO, 91, 2019042312,   , BEST,   0,   1N,  903E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042318,   , BEST,   0,   1N,  898E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042400,   , BEST,   0,   2N,  895E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042406,   , BEST,   0,   6N,  892E,  15, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042412,   , BEST,   0,   8N,  886E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  190,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:91B.png

图片:91B2.png

图片:91BT.png

[热带低压纳纳于2019-04-24 21:50编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
强热带风暴
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发布于:2019-04-25 00:03
Luigi728锛0.2N這是要刷新畫眉和阿耆尼紀錄的節奏?!?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
http://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/read.php?tid=8434&fid=56
这是06年10月的98W帖子网址,当时还越过了赤道,但这种低纬扰动甚至是越赤道扰动还是很罕见的
[2018.26W于2019-04-25 00:04编辑了帖子]
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热带低压纳纳
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发布于:2019-04-25 12:43
定位调整至0.4N
IO, 91, 2019042406,   , BEST,   0,   1N,  912E,  15, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042412,   , BEST,   0,   2N,  908E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  190,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042418,   , BEST,   0,   3N,  904E,  15, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  190,  40,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042500,   , BEST,   0,   4N,  901E,  15, 1004, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  160,  40,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:91B.png

图片:2019IO91_4KMIRIMG_201904250400.gif

图片:91BT.png

[热带低压纳纳于2019-04-25 13:17编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2019-04-25 15:19
91B INVEST 190425 0600 2.4N 90.3E IO 20 1005

图片:20190425.0600.himawari-8.vis.91B.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.0.4N.90.1E.100pc.jpg


图片:20190425.0600.himawari-8.ir.91B.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.0.4N.90.1E.100pc.jpg


图片:20190425.0600.himawari-8.irbd.91B.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.0.4N.90.1E.100pc.jpg

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