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论坛版主-副热带高压
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阿拉伯海气旋风暴“瓦由”(ARB 01/02A.Vayu) - 北上影响印度西岸 - MAX IMD:80KT JTWC:100KT CMA:42m/s

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更多 发布于:2019-06-07 17:24
93A INVEST 190607 0600 10.9N 73.5E IO 15 1005

图片:20190607.0900.msg-1.ir.93A.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.9N.73.5E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2019-06-17 02:48编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2019-06-07 17:54
WTIN20 DEMS 070911

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 07.06.2019

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT
120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 07.06.2019 BASED
ON 0300 UTC OF 07.06.2019.
BAY OF BENGAL:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE                        CONVECTION LAY OVER
ANDAMAN SEA ,ARAKAN COAST ,NORTH & ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL  BAY OF BENGAL AND ISOLATED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER TENASSERIM COAST & REST BAY
OF BENGAL.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



ARABIAN SEA:



A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF
KERALA-KARNATAKA COASTS AROUND 9TH JUNE. IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ADJOINING
WSTCENTRAL & EXTREME EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


LOW


FAIR



REMARKS: NIL=
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2019-06-07 18:00
数值部分决定性预报支持发展,环境对系统发展影响难以确定

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_9.png

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热带低压纳纳
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
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3楼#
发布于:2019-06-07 23:47
IO, 93, 2019060712,   , BEST,   0, 109N,  733E,  15, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:93A.png


图片:2019IO93_4KMIRIMG_201906071515.GIF

NaTyphoon.tcmirror.top
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你知道我是誰
强热带风暴
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4楼#
发布于:2019-06-08 00:14
應該會沿着印度西岸北上增強,亦有可能登陸巴基斯坦南部地區。
強度個人上望50-60kts
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三旋共舞
台风
台风
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5楼#
发布于:2019-06-08 08:25

图片:gfs_mslp_pcpn_india_18.png

图片:gfs_mslp_pcpn_india_20.png


难以有不错的强度,甚至脱水都有危险
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强热带风暴
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6楼#
发布于:2019-06-08 13:00
定位仍然偏了少許,不在強對流內
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强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2019-06-08 15:45
THE EAST-WEST SHEAR ZONE ROUGHLY ALONG LAT. 10°N BETWEEN 3.1 & 3.6 KM ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA PERSISTS. THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST ALSO PERSIST.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA-KARNATAKA COASTS AROUND 9TH JUNE.
IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH FROM SOUTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST
PERSISTS.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP
AREA OFF NORTH KERALA COAST AND EXTENDS UPTO 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
PERSISTS.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON MODERATE TO STRONG OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
LATITUDE 7 DEG NORTH. WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST ARABIAN SEA



South East Arabian Sea :
Wind: Nortwesterly to Westerly 20 to 25 knots gusting to 30 knots.
[你知道我是誰于2019-06-08 15:46编辑了帖子]
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2018.26W
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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8楼#
发布于:2019-06-08 20:40
WTIN20 DEMS 080750
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 08.06.2019
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
08.06.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 08.06.2019.

BAY OF BENGAL:




SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER ARAKAN COAST,TENASSERIM COAST, NORTH BAY OF
BENGAL ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING SOUTH
BAY OF BENGAL AND SCATTERED LOW / MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE REST BAY OF BENGAL.
.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS
24-48 HOURS
48-72 HOURS
72-96 HOURS
96-120 HOURS
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL

ARABIAN SEA:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA  DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS
24-48 HOURS
48-72 HOURS
72-96 HOURS
96-120 HOURS
NIL
NIL
LOW
FAIR
MODERATE

REMARKS: NIL=

图片:3Dasiasec_ir1.jpg

[2018.26W于2019-06-08 20:42编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
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9楼#
发布于:2019-06-09 01:50
GFS新报看好强度

图片:93A_tracks_latest.png


图片:93A_gefs_latest.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_india_31.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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