phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-17 11:01




我们提倡全文翻译,但在时间有限的现实情况下,也鼓励意译,即摘录其中的要点列出,要点包括:

1、发报时定位
2、过去十二小时分析
A.强度
B.结构
C.环流形势
3、数值预测概述
4、JTWC预测
A.预测基础及理由(即主要根据哪些数值做出,为什么会这么认为)
B.路径
C.强度
D.结构




自2011年桑达台风开始,我们尝试在追击重要热带气旋的过程中发布JTWC预报理由翻译。
桑达台风的翻译贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=41678
莎莉嘉台风翻译贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=42257

鉴于06W已形成且有可能成为今年西北太平洋的第四个命名热带气旋,开贴进行该热带气旋的JTWC预报理由翻译。

欢迎各位读者成为翻译者,每翻译一贴加贡献值5和威望5。有意参与翻译的,直接在本贴回帖即可。

翻译统筹表:
Prognostic Reasoning报数是否有人翻译翻译人楼层#01-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid1#02-预报理由已有人翻译老干部2#03-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid3#04-预报理由已有人翻译老干部4#05-预报要点已有人翻译老干部6#06-预报理由已有人翻译y4t7sds12 5#07-预报要点已有人翻译老干部7#08-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid8#09-预报要点已有人翻译老干部9#10-预报理由已有人翻译老干部10#11-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid11#12-预报理由已有人翻译miriam12#14-预报理由已有人翻译rifleman17513#15-预报要点已有人翻译千羽玄宇14#16-预报理由已有人翻译千羽玄宇15#18-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid16#19-预报要点已有人翻译y4t7sds1217#20-预报理由已有人翻译miriam18#21-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid19#22-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid20#23-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid21#24-预报理由已有人翻译vincent61422#25-预报要点已有人翻译vincent61423#26-预报理由已有人翻译老干部26#27-预报要点已有人翻译老干部27#28-预报理由已有人翻译老干部28#29-预报要点已有人翻译rifleman17524#30-预报理由已有人翻译lawrence29#31-预报要点已有人翻译老干部25

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-17 11:02

#1(remarks)
热带低压(TD)06W,位于菲律宾马尼拉东南东方向约600海里处,在过去6小时中以4kts的速度向北北西方向移动。动态红外云图显示,深厚对流正在低层环流中心上方构建中,稀薄的螺旋云带也正沿着系统的西侧形成中。161656Z AMSU图像显示,虽然西侧外围的螺旋云带正在构建中,但深厚对流稍微有些向西偏离低层环流中心。161303Z ASCAT扫描显示出一个风力为20kts的结构良好的、对称的闭合环状环流,西南象限风力为25kts。高层分析显示,之前位于该区域的TUTT已经在过去6小时中移动到北面。这使得高层的近赤道脊能重新覆盖系统并改善流出。系统正被位于其东北方的低层到中层的副热带高压脊(STR)引导而沿着其西南边沿移动。目前一个移动中的中纬度西风槽正在削弱STR,使得系统移动路径偏北分量较大。但在48小时后,随着西风槽的远离,STR将重建并引导系统靠近菲律宾群岛。随着系统向北移动,它将会重新被TUTT控制,并因此而抑制自身对流的发展,导致96小时后消散。本警报取代并取消之前发布的TCFA。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SHALLOW BANDING FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
161656Z AMSU PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC ALONG WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 161303Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL FORMED,
SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH A CLOSED RING OF 20KT WINDS AND 25KT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT WAS IN THE
AREA HAS MIGRATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO MOVE BACK OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE STR WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND PUSH THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS NEAR
TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL MOVE BACK UNDER THE
TUTT AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 161621Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 161630).

老干部 发表于 2011-6-17 17:40

第二报预报理由翻译


1.气象从业者专用

2.过去十二小时小结与分析

A.UTC6月17日3时,热带低压(TD)06W的中心位于菲律宾首都马尼拉东-东南越560海里的海面上,在过去六小时中以每小时7海里的速度向北-西北方向移动。多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画显示,系统底层环流中心(LLCC)部分外露,有深层对流在中心附近爆发但正被切离至llcc西侧。而较早的(UTC16日23时44分)SSMIS扫描图像显示,系统底层环流中心偏西北侧有深层对流活动,结构较现在更佳。高空形势分析表明,系统位于一道高空近赤道高压脊(NER)的西南方,所处位置有20kt左右的垂直风切变(VWS)。系统正位于中低层副热带高压脊(STR)的西缘,将受其引导继续向北-西北方向移动。

3.预报理由


A.之前的预报都指出系统将于96小时后消散,这一报颠@覆了之前的预测。因该地区的高空槽对系统的影响不如预期的大,该TC将在登陆前维持一定的强度。

B.在未来24小时内,系统将继续向偏北方向移动。随着系统接近高空近赤道高压脊(NER),风切将减弱,大气环境将有利于该系统的加强。而在未来24-36小时间,随着西风槽出海和副高西伸,系统的向西分量将加大,改为西北向移动。在未来48小时前后,随着纬度的升高,系统将接近副热带高压脊,向中纬度西风带的高层流出也将打开,系统有望进入稳步增强阶段。

C.延伸预报指出,系统将继续沿副高西缘移动,并将在登陆台湾之前缓慢加强。各大数值预报对系统的发展均不看好,且统一程度差强人意。本次预报即取数值预报模式中预报结果中规中矩的两只:GFS和UKMET综合而来;而NOGAPS未能较好的初始化,在48小时后过分强调系统的偏北分量;JGSM和WBAR则是太偏西,指出系统将于36小时后登陆菲律宾。



WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING AT THE CENTER AND
BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 162344Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS ONE
SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS EARLIER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS
AND UNDER 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AT TAU 96,
AND THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A CHANGE TO THAT PHILOSOPHY. IT HAS THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE REGION NOT INFLUENCING CYCLONE INTENSITY AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF MORE
FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GET CLOSER TO THE NER AXIS. AFTER A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CHINA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, THE
STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND 06W WILL TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND APPROACHES THE STR AXIS
NEAR TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PHASE OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND SLOW INTENSIFY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNDER-
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ONLY
FAIR. THIS FORECAST FAVORS CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS,
WHICH FALL NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. NOGAPS HAS NOT BEEN
INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS, AND JGSM AND WBAR ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE PHILIPPINE INTERIOR BY TAU 36.
NNNN

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-17 23:48

#3(remarks)
170900Z 位于11.3N 128.5E附近
热带低压(TD)06W,位于菲律宾马尼拉东南东约500海里的洋面上,在过去6小时中以13kts的速度向北北西方向移动。动态多光谱图像显示,低层环流中心(LLCC)部分外露,中心附近的对流偏向西侧。目前的定位是根据170530Z可见光图像得出的,170551Z的AMSU-B微波图像也支持这一定位。高层分析显示系统正位于一个近赤道高压脊(NER)轴线西南方,垂直风切变(VWS)为20kts。TD 06W正被位于其东北方的低层到中层的副热带高压脊(STR)引导而沿着其西南边沿移动。预计系统将在未来24小时内继续沿着偏北的路径移动,由于系统慢慢靠近NER轴线,24小时后所处区域风切变相对微弱。24小时后,在一个中纬度西风槽离开中国东部沿海后,STR将在系统西侧重建并使系统大致沿西北方向移动。在约48小时后,随着系统向北移动和接近STR轴线,预计流出将因中纬度西风带而改善,系统也将随之增强为热带风暴,约96小时后在擦过台湾南部沿海前强度到达顶峰40kts。数值预报呈现出中等程度的一致。本预报与数值集合结果在48小时内一致,在那之后,考虑到系统增强,本报的预测将比数值集合更偏东和偏快。
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 128.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 170530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A
170551Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS UNDER 20 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 06W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE
INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GET CLOSER TO THE NER
AXIS. AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CHINA
AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND 06W WILL TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND APPROACHES
THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWHICH
IT IS MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO REFLECT A MORE
INSTENSE SYSTEM.

老干部 发表于 2011-6-18 13:37

第四报预报理由翻译 1.气象从业者专用 2.过去十二小时小结与分析 A.UTC6月17日15时,热带低压(TD)06W的中心位于菲律宾首都马尼拉东-东南越430海里的海面上,在过去六小时中以每小时13海里的速度向北-西北方向移动。色调强化云图动画显示,系统深层对流被持续切离至llcc西侧。系统的初始定位是根据UTC17日9时21分的SSMIS微波扫描图确定,系统的强度是根据PGTW,KNES,RJTD按德沃夏克分析法的分析结果综合得出。高空形势分析表明,系统位于一道高空近赤道高压脊(NER)的西南方,所处位置有15-20kt的垂直风切变(VWS)。06w正位于中低层副热带高压脊(STR)的西南缘,将受其引导继续向北-西北方向移动。 3.预报理由 A.预报思路不变。
B.系统将继续受中低层副高引导向西北方向移动。随着纬度的升高和系统接近高空近赤道高压脊(NER),风切将减弱;同时系统向中纬度西风带的高层流出也将打开,大气环境将有利于该系统的加强。在诸多有利条件的作用下,系统将经历缓慢而稳定的增强过程,有可能加强为热带风暴。
C.72小时后,06w将斜穿台湾以南的吕宋海峡,并闯入中国海岸线内,而此时西风槽带来的较强风切将会削弱系统,在登陆前将其打回热带扰动级别。各大可用数值模式对06w48小时后的动向达成中等程度的共识,但之后分歧较大。欧中和WBAR预测路径偏左,而NOGAPS则偏右的厉害。本次预报的路径即取数值共识中的右端,舍弃不太可能出现的严重偏西路径。 WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 170921Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TD 06W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STEERING RIDGE. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE,
IT WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GETS CLOSER
TO THE NER AXIS. CONCURRENTLY, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORHTWEST. THESE
FACTORS WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL, ALBEIT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
TD INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 06W WILL DIAGONALLY CROSS THE LUZON STRAIT
JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, THEN INTO THE CHINESE COASTLINE. INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE MAKING LANDFAL. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48,
AFTERWHICH THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WITH ECMWF AND WBAR TO THE LEFT OF
AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AN UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK.//
NNNN

y4t7sds12 发表于 2011-6-18 13:59

第六报预报理由翻译

1. 气象从业者专用
2. 12小时总结和分析。
               A.熱帶低氣壓06W,集結在馬尼垃東南偏東約305海里,過去六小時以時速11kts向西北移動。
最近的多光譜衛星影像(MSI)及2033UTC的衛星影像,顯示低層環流中心 (LLCC)接近完全外露,
而深層對流位於LLCC以西。 現時30kts的強度,與PGTS KNES用德法估計得出的T2.0及2.5相符。
06W將沿在其東北面副高的東南邊沿向西北移動。
3. 预测原理
          A.預測原理不變。
          B.預計06W未來48小時將沿副高的東南邊沿向西北移動。
在非常溫暖的海温、良好的高層西向流出及減弱中的風切下,06W將繼續以緩慢但穩定的速度增强。
在系統東面的TUTT似乎正在連接06W,因此未來數天極向流出將會改善。
一高層低緯的糟線正由西面接近,36至48小時後也會令極向流出改善。
      C. 在延伸预报期中:較低的海洋含熱量,將限制高層流出,令系統以東的风切增強。
另外,系統將掠過陸地,這也將令它減弱。
數值模型預報对現時的預測路徑有中等程度的一致。
ECWMF的路徑偏西,指06W在其生命週期強度也將較弱,令它受低層氣流影響。
這一報的預測路徑徧向數值預報的綜合路徑,因為它們與現時JTWC作出的
強度和预测原理一致。



NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 172033Z TRMM
PASS, WHICH SHOWS A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 2.0 AND
2.5 RESPECTIVELY. TD 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. TD 06W SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TREND DRIVEN BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER,
FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTING WITH THE SYSTEM AND MAY ENHANCE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, A MIGRATORY UPPER LEVEL,
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST, AND
PASSAGE OVER LAND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER, KEEPING TD 06W WEAK
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYCLE AND STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WITH LOWER
LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN MODEL GROUPING
CLUSTERED AROUND THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AND INTENSITY FORECAST. //
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老干部 发表于 2011-6-18 14:52

补一下第五报的remarks

第五报预报要点翻译

UTC6月17日21时,热带低压06W的中心位于马尼拉东-东南约350海里的海面上,也就是北纬13.3,东经126.4度附近,在过去6小时里以13kts的速度向西北方向移动。

该系统定位根据UTC17日17时38分的AMSR-E卫星云图得出。云图显示,系统有意部分外露的底层环流中心,深层对流集结在系统西侧象限。系统强度与PGTW根据德沃夏克所定T值一致(2.0),估计为30kt。

未来48小时,热带低压06W将继续沿中低层副热带高压脊(STR)西南缘向西北方向移动。在未来36小时—72小时之间,有一中纬西风槽将对副高位置有所影响,但不足以改变06w的路径。但随着西风槽影响的接近,06w的向北流出通道有望加强,加之SST作美,系统强度也会因此得以缓慢加强。系统增强的最大障碍仍是高层东风带来的垂直风切变,未来这种障碍还将持续。

关于06W的预报,各数值模式表现出中等一致性。NOGAPS模式显示系统将在48小时后转北而欧中模式认为转西。欧中模式还显示,该系统终其一生积弱不堪,因此未来引导层面仍较低,向西分量不会小。我们认为NOGAPS的预测是不太可能的,根据观测资料副高势力稳定盘踞在06w的北边,且没有其他系统能使它如此迅速的减弱。

本次预报即取数值集群预报的共识结果,并综合考虑与之前预报理由的一致性而得出。预报显示,因引导气流强于预期,系统接下来的移动速度将加快。

UTC6月17日18时最大浪高为10英尺,后续警报将于18日3时、9时15时、21时发出。




REMARKS:172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 126.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NMEAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 171738Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A 171730Z PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.0. TD 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE TRACK OF TD
06W. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THAT PERIOD, ALLOWING TD 06W TO CONTINUE A SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND DRIVEN BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS LIMITED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE INTENSITIFICATION RATE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH
ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WITH NOGAPS DEPICTING
IMMEDIATE POLEWARD MOTION AND ECMWF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 48. THE NOGAPS SCENARIO APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING A CONTINUOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NO MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A WEAKNESS TO THE RIDGE SO QUICKLY. THE ECMWF KEEPS TD 06W
WEAK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYLE, STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN
MODEL GROUPING CLUSTERED AROUND THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO A STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
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老干部 发表于 2011-6-18 19:40

第七报预报要点翻译

UTC6月18日9时,热带风暴(TS)06W的中心位于马尼拉东-东南约260海里的海面上,也就是北纬14.9,东经125.2度附近,在过去6小时里以11kts的速度向西北方向移动。

多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画显示,系统结构在过去8小时里略有改善,但受高层东风影响系统所处环境风切不小,底层环流中心(llcc)依旧部分外露。虽然1时17分的METOPA微波扫描图像显示中心附近只有微不足道的深层对流,但最新的微波扫描图像指出系统南翼有深层对流发展。

综合0时PGTW的底层流线分析、及从吕宋东部和萨玛岛(米沙耶群岛最东段的小岛)传来的地面形势分析报告出,有弱的西南气流穿过米沙耶群岛(棉兰老岛北边的诸小岛),而菲律宾海有稳定、强大的偏南气流区。高层流线分析指出,系统上空有一高层反气旋,但与llcc并不重合,在其西北方向300海里左右。水汽云图动画指出,系统的高层极向流出受制于一沿北纬20度延伸的TUTT,因此系统北侧发展颇为不佳;而系统高层赤向流出则发展较好。

目前,热带风暴06w正处于高层幅散较佳且海温为31-32度之区域,系统强度根据PGTW,RJTD,KNES依照德沃夏克分析法的分析结果及位于系统llcc东侧、南侧的船舶实测报告综合而来,垂直风切变约为15-20kt。但系统正向吕宋东部海域移去,该处风切呈减小趋势。受风切减小、海温较高、赤向流出较好等因素的共同作用,系统在行进至吕宋以北前都会稳定加强,但在行进到吕宋以北后,受风切增大、海温降低等因素影响,系统将受到削弱。各大数值对系统未来60小时路径的预测有较好的一致性,都支持其移动进入吕宋海峡;但60小时后,虽然都支持系统西北行的路径,都支持系统登陆中国(香港—中台湾之间),数值的分歧就有所显现。本次预报即取数值集群预报的共识结果。

UTC6月18日6时最大浪高为11英尺,后续警报将于18日15时、21时,,19日3时、9时发出。


REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 125.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS, BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH A 180117Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWED LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION, RECENT MSI POINTS TO DEEPENING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE 180000Z PGTW STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM EASTERN LUZON AND SAMAR REVEAL A
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE VISAYAS, AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED AND VIGOROUS SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE 300
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE DUE TO AN
EXTENSIVE TUTT ALONG THE 20TH LATITUDE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, IS WELL DEVELOPED. CURRENTLY, TS 06W EXISTS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND 30-31 DEGREE WATERS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES AND SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ESTIMATED AT 15-
20 KNOTS, BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD A REGION OF DECREASING
VWS OFF THE EAST COAST OF LUZON. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING VWS,
WARM WATERS, AND SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 06W TO
INTENSIFY UNTIL IT TRACKS NORTH OF LUZON. ONCE NORTH OF LUZON,
INCREASING VWS AND FALLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL COUPLE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TRACKING
TS 06W INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. AFTER TAU 60, MODEL DISPARITY
INCREASES BUT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HONG KONG AND CENTRAL TAIWAN. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS STIPS
11 GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
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phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-19 00:01

#8
1.气象从业人员专用
2.过去12小时概述与分析
A.要点:热带风暴 06W,位于菲律宾马尼拉东部230海里处,在过去的6小时中以10kts的速度向西北方向移动。动态红外云图显示,TS 06W 依然在和垂直风切变(VWS)与被抑制的极向流出的综合作用对抗。动态水汽图动画显示,一个热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)在北纬20度附近延伸,正在给风暴的北侧带来下沉气流。180929Z 37 GHZ SSMIS图像显示,低层对流云带主要集中在风暴的西半圈,这说明VWS比数值预期的要大。近期的红外云图显示,低层环流中心(LLCC)附近上方出现一些冷云顶和爆发的对流。目前的强度分析值是以PGTW, KNES和RJTD的德沃夏克法估计值平均值为依据的,在系统附近的船只和陆地观测点报告也支持这一估计值。TS 06W 正沿着副热带高压脊西南边沿向VWS变小和流出改善的区域移动。
3.预测原理
A.由于比预期的增强速率稍慢,在强度的预期上有稍微的调弱。但除此之外并无明显的预测原理变化。
B.在未来的48小时内,系统将继续沿着副热带高压脊的西南沿想西北方向移动。在移动的过程中,在30-31摄氏度水温、良好的赤道方向流出、减弱的垂直风切变共同作用下,TS 06W将以缓慢但稳定的速率增强。在短期内,TS 06W随着其接近TUTT,极向的流出会有短暂的增强,但当系统移动到吕宋海峡附近时,TUTT造成的下沉会阻碍流出并开始使系统减弱。减弱过程预计在48小时后开始,与此同时,海水热焓也会开始下降。数值模型出现较大分歧,NOGAPS/GFDN/WBAR预计系统将擦过吕宋岛东北端,而ECMWF, EGRR, JGSM则认为系统将趋向台湾南部。考虑到位于中国东部的反气旋强度,中期预测比数值集合的偏右,相较NOGAPS/GFDN和WBAR,本预测更支持ECMWF和JGSM的预测。
C.在远期,较低的海水热焓、受限制的高层流出和增强的东北向垂直风切变会使系统减弱。TS 06W 将在北纬20度以北洋面上开始减弱。届时的主要引导机制将会是副热带高压脊西南沿的气流。远期的预测是以数值模式ECMWF 和JGSM的平均值为参考的。

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. REMARKS: TROPICAL STORM 06W, LOCATED 230 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TS 06W IS STILL
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) ALONG
THE 20TH LATITUDE, WHICH IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. AN 180929Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING IS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM, WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT VWS IS HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATEDBY GUIDANCE. RECENT INFRARED
ANIMATION DOES SHOW SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY SHIP AND LAND REPORTS
PROXIMAL TO THE SYSTEM. TS 06W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS AN AREA OF DECREASING VWS
AND FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED RATE OF DEVELOPMENT, BUT OTHERWISE THERE
ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 06W WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW YET STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO THE 30-31
DEGREE WATERS, FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG ITS TRACK. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 06W WILL
ALSO GET A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE TUTT, BUT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT WILL SUPPRESS OUTFLOW AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS WEAKENING PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH FALLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT, WITH NOGAPS/GFDN/WBAR TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN LUZON, AND ECMWF, EGRR, AND JGSM MOVING THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN. BASED ON THE INTENSITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE
PLANTED OVER EASTERN CHINA, THE MID-RANGE FORECAST STAYS RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS, FAVORING ECMWF AND JGSM OVER NOGAPS/GFDN AND WBAR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. TS 06W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING OVER WATER
NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGH THE LONG RANGES WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HEDGES CONSENSUS TOWARDS
ECMWF AND JGSM.//
NNNN

老干部 发表于 2011-6-19 15:49

第九报预报要点翻译

UTC6月18日21时,热带风暴06W的中心位于马尼拉东-东南约230海里的海面上,也就是北纬15.8,东经124.6度附近,在过去6小时里以6kts的速度向北-西北方向移动。

该系统定位根据最新的微波扫描卫星图像做出,并经PGTW和RJTD修正。系统强度与PGTW、KNES根据德沃夏克所定T值一致(分别为2.0和2.5)。

热带风暴06w目前正沿副热带高压西南缘向西北方向移动。虽然06w所在位置海温很高、高空西南向流出较好,但高层东风带来的中等垂直风切变、系统北侧高层幅散欠佳都阻碍了它在过去12小时内的发展。受持续存在的风切变影响,系统核心对流仍然主要分布在llcc西侧,未能有效覆盖中心。
路径方面,预报的不确定性在增加。各大数值分为两派,其中以先西北---再偏西或西-西北的路径最为流行,NOGAPS,GFS,GFDN,UKMET,ECMWF都预测出此路径。我们也认为,在副热带高压维持、在未来的预报周期中并无明显减弱迹象的前提下,先西北---再偏西或西-西北的路径是有很大可能的。

但是,在过去预报周期与欧中意见相左的部分数值,如JGSM等认为,因中纬度西风槽正迫近中国华东,副高可能受它打击东撤,因此06w未来路径中的偏北分量将增大,有可能向台湾移去。但这种路径预测仍为“非主流”,只供参考。

预计未来两天内,系统高层流出将有所好转,风切变情况也将有所改善,因此06w有可能会小幅加强。当然,若06w登陆吕宋则另当别论。

根据各大数值路径调西的结果,经主观修正,我们下一报的路径预测将比前报更偏西。

UTC6月18日18时最大浪高为13英尺,后续警报将于19日3时、9时、15时、21时发出。

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 124.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-
NUMBERS OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. TD 06W
CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF TS 06W HAVE PREVENTED THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DESPITE PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER EAST
OF LUZON AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DUE TO PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 06W
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
SYNOPTIC CYCLES, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DIVERGING INTO TWO POSSIBLE
TRACK SCENARIOS. AN INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THIS SCENARIO, GIVEN ANALYSIS OF A
CONTINUOUS STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EXPECTATION THAT THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
JGSM AND THE PAST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGEST A MORE
POLEWARD PATH TOWARD TAIWAN IS POSSIBLE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK REMAINS AS AN ALTERNATE TRACK SCENARIO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND REDUCTION IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION, PARTICULARLY IF THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS 06W TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SUBJECTIVELY
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WESTERN MODEL GROUPING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z,
191500Z AND 192100Z.//
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