phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-22 10:59

我们提倡全文翻译,但在时间有限的现实情况下,也鼓励意译,即摘录其中的要点列出,要点包括:

1、发报时定位
2、过去十二小时分析
A.强度
B.结构
C.环流形势
3、数值预测概述
4、JTWC预测
A.预测基础及理由(即主要根据哪些数值做出,为什么会这么认为)
B.路径
C.强度
D.结构
自2011年桑达台风开始,我们尝试在追击重要热带气旋的过程中发布JTWC预报理由翻译。
桑达台风的翻译贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=41678
莎莉嘉台风翻译贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=42257
海马台风的翻译贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=42486

鉴于米雷已形成并可能对我国有重大影响,开贴进行该热带气旋的JTWC预报理由翻译。

欢迎各位读者成为翻译者,每翻译一贴加贡献值5和威望5。有意参与翻译的,直接在本贴回帖即可。

翻译统筹表:

预报理由;要点报数是否有人翻译翻译者楼层#01-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid1#02-预报理由已有人翻译千羽玄武2#03-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid3#04-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid4#05-预报要点已有人翻译phantom_kid5#06-预报理由已有人翻译老干部6#07-预报要点已有人翻译11117#08-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid8#09-预报要点已有人翻译rifleman1759#10-预报理由已有人翻译phantom_kid10#11-预报要点已有人翻译老干部11#12-预报要点已有人翻译111112#14-预报理由已有人翻译(配图)小蜗牛风迷13#16-预报理由已有人翻译(配图)小蜗牛风迷14#17-预报要点已有人翻译(配图)小蜗牛风迷15#13--#22中的遗漏部分已有人翻译加油rau16

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-22 11:00

#1(remarks)
要点:
212100Z位于约12.9N 129.8E处,热带低压(TD)07W ,位于帕劳西北方约320海里处,在过去的6小时内以11kts的速度向西北方向移动。最新的动态红外云图显示,深厚对流正在低层环流中心附近组织和构建,螺旋云带上虽然出现深厚对流,但不完整。对流正开始卷入系统的北侧和南侧。在系统的西南侧和东侧都能观察到强烈的流出,流向系统东部的热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)。211713Z AMSR-E图像显示,一系列不完整的云带正从北侧卷入LLCC中,中心对流深厚。211301ZASCAT扫描显示,季风槽内一狭长的低压区出现闭合的20-25kts环流圈,在LLCC北侧和南侧的区域风力达到25-30kts。系统目前正沿着位于其东北方的中太平洋高压西南侧边沿移动,预计在未来60小时内将保持西北方向移动。众多数值模型在此期间的预测结果保持高度一致;60小时后,数值出现明显分歧,NOGAPS预计系统将大幅向东转向,ECMWF预计将趋向台湾,GFS, UKMET 和JGSM则和本预测结果近似。本警报代替并取消之前发出的热带气旋形成警报(TCFA)。

REMARKS:212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 129.8E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWESTOF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIXHOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIONORGANIZING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDSOF DEEP, BUT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THENORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG OUTFLOW CAN BESEEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL UPPERTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 211713Z AMSR-EPASS SHOWS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THELLCC FROM THE NORTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. A 211301ZASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED DEPRESSION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGHWITH A CLOSED 20-25KT CIRCULATION AND REGIONS OF 25-30KTS OF WIND TOTHE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKINGALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED TOTHE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THENORTHWEST FOR 60 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOODAGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR TAU 60, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCESTARTS TO FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS RECURVING SHARPLY TO THEEAST, ECMWF CONTINUING INTO TAIWAN, AND GFS, UKMET AND JGSMFOLLOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THIS FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDESAND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONEFORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500ZAND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//NNNN

千羽玄武 发表于 2011-6-22 17:38

07W
2报
WDPN32 PGTW 6月22日3时
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1、    气象从业者专用。
2、    12小时小结与分析
A、    最近的动态多谱图像显示非常广阔的环流(800海里)和深层对流爆发环绕着还只有稀薄对流爆发的LLCC,对流开始变得更有组织性。但是LLCC依然没有开始组织整合。下沉气流相当强,正如动态水汽图像显示的,该气旋的气流流出通道主要有两个,穿过赤道的西南气流和次要的位于东部的热带对流层上部槽。6月21日21时的SSMIS显示深层对流依然没有很完整的组织性,也尚未形成平滑可测的风暴面和一个强有力的气流流入模式。07W处于副热带高压脊西南边缘,因此其路径一直采取东北方向。位置和强度的分析基于动态可见图像和PGTW德沃夏克分析。
3、    预报理由:
A、    这是关于这个气旋的第一次预报,并且为之后的预报定下基调。
B、    受到副热带高压脊(STR)的影响,TS 06W预计在未来的48小时内将继续采取西南向路径。其加强将会比较缓慢。整合成一个大型环流系统预计需要一段时间。位于东部的热带对流层上部槽未来将会被填充。一个中纬度模式会抑制向极气流的流出。该系统预计可能以轻度台风的强度在未来72小时内在台湾登陆。
C、    在长期预报中,TS 07W会受到副高西南边缘的气流控制影响,并有可能会在移动到中纬度的黄海附近时再次登陆中国大陆。数值模型的结果正在达成一致。GFDN和NOGAPS的预测分歧是该系统经过琉球群岛。欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)支持该系统会穿过台湾省而登陆南中国。模型同时显示副高西南边缘气流依然会影响07W,并使它采取偏西路径。UKMET预测也支持偏西的路径。JGSM AND ECMWF.//NNNN

07W
#2(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION (800NM) WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
RELATIVELY CONVECTION SPARSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED, BUT HAS YET TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH A CROSS EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. A 212127Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED
AND DOES NOT HAVE THE SMOOTH APPEARANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
INFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
PGTW DVORAK FIX.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW. ORGANIZATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM TAKES LONGER THAN THAT OF A
SMALLER SYSTEM, THE TUTT TO THE EAST IS STARTING TO FILL, AND AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE REGIME WILL SUPPRESS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM ROUDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN NEAR TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 07W WILL STEER ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN CHINA BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS PULLING THE SYSTEM OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. ECMWF IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER PULLING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TAIWAN INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE DISCREPANCY STEMS FROM AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP
OVER MONGOLIA AND MANCHURIA, CHINA. THE MODELS THAT HOLD THE PATTERN
LONGER AND MAINTAIN THE STR INTEGRITY (ECMWF) HAVE 07W TRACKING
FURTHER WEST, AND MODELS THAT ARE BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN SOONER
(NOGAPS) HAVE THE SYSTEM RECURVING FASTER. MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS THE TENDENCY TO MOVE BLOCKING PATTERNS OUT TOO FAST, SO THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK NEAR UKMET, JGSM AND ECMWF.//
NNNN

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-23 00:38

#3(remarks)

1、发报时定位及过往路径
220900Z 14.9N 127.0E
马尼拉东方 370海里
过去6小时以14kts速度向西北方向移动

2、过去时间段分析
A.强度
德沃夏克估计法:35kts
220138Z ASCAT扫描:35kts
B.结构
低层环流中心可能存在两个
均有对流云带分别从北部/西南部卷入
C.环流形势
位于高压脊轴线之下
东侧的TUTT单体加强流出
垂直风切变微弱
受停滞于日本东南方的深层副热带高压脊西南侧气流引导

3、数值预测概述
ECMWF最西
NOGAPS 和GFDN最东
本报比数值集合稍微偏西

4、JTWC预测
A.路径
起引导作用的高压脊被一靠近的西风槽削弱
在48小时内保持西北方向移动,来到台湾附近后开始转北
横扫中国东部沿海,从上海附近再次入海
B.强度
逐渐增强,在到达台湾之前达到巅峰强度

REMARKS:220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 127.0E.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NMEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERYBROAD SYSTEM THAT SPANS ALMOST THE ENTIRE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEPCONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND TWO POSSIBLELOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC). THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THEMORE DOMINANT LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH. THESECONDARY LLCC IS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPINGFROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM ISUNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TROPICALUPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THEINITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 220454Z AMSU-B MICROWAVEIMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITYIS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND FROMA 220138Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE LLCC. THESYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYEREDSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TOCONTINUE TRACKING NORHTWESTWARD UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING TAIWANTHEN MOVE ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDETROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLYINTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, PEAKING ATTYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE TAIWAN. IT WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN TIPOF CHINA AND EXIT INTO THE YELLOW SEA NEAR SHANGHAI AND COMMENCEDISSIPATION OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAN OUT TOABOUT A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS ANDGFDN TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TOTHE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT OUTLIERS\' UNLIKELYINCURSION INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-23 01:00

#4(reasoning)
1、发报时定位及过往路径
221200Z ---15.6N 126.3E
过去6小时以15kts的速度向西北方向移动
定位依据:221135Z SSMI-S微波图像

2、过去十二小时分析
A.强度
PGTW, KNES, 和RJTD德沃夏克估计法:40kts
B.结构
可能存在两个低层环流中心
均有对流云带分别从北部/西南部卷入
C.环流形势
位于高压脊轴线之下
东侧的TUTT单体加强流出
垂直风切变程度为微弱到中等
受停滞于日本东南方的深层副热带高压脊西南侧气流引导

3、数值预测概述
ECMWF最西
NOGAPS 和GFDN最东
本报比数值集合稍微偏西

4、JTWC预测
A.路径
起引导作用的高压脊被一靠近的西风槽削弱
在48小时内保持西北方向移动,然后开始转北
横穿台湾岛
72小时后再次登陆中国东部沿海
在上海附近进入黄海并加速东移直至消散
B.强度
高层环境有利发展
逐步增强
在登陆台湾前强度达到顶峰——台风强度
再次入海后由于垂直风切变增强、海水热焓降低、副热带急流而在洋面上消散

WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM THAT
SPANS ALMOST THE ENTIRE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
CONSOLIDATING AROUND TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS
(LLCC). THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MORE DOMINANT LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY LLCC IS TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 221135Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORHTWESTWARD UP TO
TAU 48 THEN MOVE ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
PEAKING AT TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE TAIWAN. IT WILL THEN CROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TIP OF CHINA BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS MEARI WILL EXIT INTO THE YELLOW
SEA NEAR SHANGHAI, ACCELERATE, AND COMMENCE DISSIPATION OVER WATER.
THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAN OUT TO ABOUT A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO
THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT
OUTLIERS\' UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-23 10:16

#5(remarks)
1、发报时定位及过往路径
222100Z——15.2N 127.7E
位于菲律宾马尼拉东方405海里
过去6小时以8kts的速度向西北方向移动
系统中心被重新定位到原中心的东南部

2、过去十二小时分析
A.强度
PGTW德沃夏克法估计——T:2.5 ,35kts
221240Z ASCAT扫描——35kts
B.结构
广阔的低层环流,对流位于涡度的东西两侧
C.环流形势
沿东北方的副热带高压脊西南侧向西北方向移动

3、数值预测概述
本报和ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, GFS最新结果保持一致
NOGAPS和GFDN预测路径更偏东,但被视为错误

4、JTWC预测
A.预测基础及理由
后期路径东调是因为中心定位调整
B.路径
在西风槽接近前转过副热带高压脊的脊线
路径东调,受西风槽影响,72小时后开始转化为温带气旋
C.强度
表层海温相对较高、高空流出较好,在36小时后达到强度顶峰——台风强度
转化为温带气旋后依然维持25kts以上的强度
D.结构
底层环流的整合和加固阻碍系统的迅速加强

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES AN
EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISTINCT EMBEDDED VORTICES AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THESE
SMALLER VORTICES ARE ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID REPRESENTED BY THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION, WHICH IS ALSO APPROXIMATED IN RECENT
PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIXES AND A 221735Z AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 2.5 DVORAK T-
NUMBER ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND A 221240Z ASCAT PASS. TS 07W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72, AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL THUS MAINTAIN INTENSITY
ABOVE 25 KNOTS. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ADJUSTMENT OF THE ANALYSIS POSITION AND NOT A SHIFT
IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 36 AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INHIBITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS
RUNS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DEPICT A TRACK A BIT FARTHER TO THE
EAST, A SCENARIO DEEMED UNLIKELY GIVEN THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

老干部 发表于 2011-6-23 13:12

第六报预报理由翻译

1、发报时间:UTC6月23日3时
2、定位:马尼拉以东410海里左右。
3、过去十二小时分析
A.强度
根据微波扫描、德法分析,强度为40kt
B.结构
根据多光谱卫星云图动画及微波扫描分析,米雷有一狭长、广阔的底层环流中心区,其中有多个细小的涡旋。最主要的涡旋中心在底层环流的几何中心北侧。
C.路径及环流形势
在副热带高压脊引导下向西北方向移动

4、数值预测概述
数值预测一致性较好。JTWC采信大多数数值,如ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, GFS的预报,剔除NOGAPS,GFDN过于偏东的路径预测。但是,虽然07w羸弱且相对浅薄,但高空槽(200百帕层面)仍会对其产生干扰,令其后期路径略微偏东。

5、JTWC预测
A.路径
继续沿副热带高压脊向西北方向移动,整体路径将东调,系统在减弱时可能会伴有转化过程(转化为温带气旋)
B.强度
在未来48小时内,系统发展的有利因素有:经过海域海温很高、赤向流出较佳;不利因素有:越往高纬移动垂直风切变越大,高层流出因一高空槽(约200百帕层面)干扰不佳。综合起来看,有利因素更胜一筹,因此可以缓慢加强。
但48小时后,系统经过海域海温下降,有利不利因素的对比形势将发生逆转,系统将减弱。



07W#6(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222114Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TS 07W REMAINS ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE
SMALL-SCALE VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLICALLY DEVELOP AND WANE NEAR THESE
VORTICES, THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH NOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 07W HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. TS 07W IS NOW
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION VICE DISSIPATION,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE TRANSITION.
   B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, INTRODUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE
TO CONSOLIDATE. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG AND THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 07W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER THESE
COMPETING INFLUENCES BEFORE PASSING OVER COOLER WATER AND
ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM, INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, AND
GFS RUNS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TRACK A
BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST, A SCENARIO DEEMED UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING.
HOWEVER, INTERACTION BETWEEN TS 07W AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK,
THOUGH ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF
TS 07W REMAINS A WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM AS FORECAST.
   C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ACCLERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
MERIDIONAL STEERING PATTERN. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING DURING
THIS TRANSITION PERIOD.//
NNNN

1111 发表于 2011-6-23 23:08

第七报预报理由翻译:

1.发报时间:UTC2011年6月23日09时。
2.定位:日本冲绳空军基地以南约550海里。
3.过去12小时分析
   3.1   强度
          主要根据ASCAT扫描——40kt
         【核心对流的缺乏使得德法分析法不够适用】
3.2    结构
         低层环流狭长分布且范围广阔,中心外露。对流主要分布在中心两侧。多光谱卫星云图动画显示有多个细小涡旋中心在系统中心附近逐渐汇合,这表明系统具有较明显的季风低压的性质。
3.3    路径及环流形势
      系统处于副高西南侧,过去12小时路径主要受副高引导。最近高层环流分析显示在130E附近有一个南北向弱点使米雷有向极运动的趋势。
4.   数值预测概述
      对于米雷路径和强度的中期预测,各个预测模型具有较高的一致性,但在处理72小时后系统到达中纬度后的路径预测上存在较大分歧。
5.   JTWC预测
       高层低压和朝向东北的TUTT限制了其北侧流出,向赤流出依然强盛。系统向高纬地区移动时会遭遇更强的风切以及TUTT带来的高空下沉气流,但与此同时,北侧流出预计会得到改善。预计系统在移向琉球的过程中将以略低于气候平均速度增强。在北纬30度附近水温迅速降低,因此系统在移至黄海之后会迅速减弱。

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
07W#7(remarks)
230900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 126.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
IS EXPOSED AND ELONGATED, WITH BANDS OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE
VORTICES ROTATING AROUND AND THEN MERGING WITH THE LLCC. THE
RELATIVELY CLEAR AIR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND THE CYCLING
MINOR VORTICES GIVES THE SYSTEM A MONSOON DEPRESSION SIGNATURE. A
230114Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS, AS THE LACK OF CORE
CONVECTION IS MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS RELIABLE. AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE, HOWEVER, CONSISTENT WITH THE REMOTE SENSING DATA. TS
07W IS TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N 145E. RECENT UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSES SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A BROAD
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WEAKNESS ALONG THE 130TH LONGITUDE. THIS IS
ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM MEARI TO TAKE A POLEWARD TRACK. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE YELLOW
SEA TOWARD THE NORTHERN RYUKUS. THIS LOW IS NOT REFLECTING ON THE
500 MB ANALYSIS, INDICATING IT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
AND WILL BE A SHEARING FORCE BUT HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON STEERING.
THE BONIN HIGH WILL REMAIN THE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT
72 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERE TROUGH
(TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM ARE INHIBITING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. AS TS 07W MOVES
POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. TS 07W WILL INTENSIFY
AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THESE COMPETING INFLUENCES
AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RYUKUS. A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE 30TH LATITUDE AND TS 07W WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING INTO THE YELLOW SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE
MEDIUM TERM, BUT THERE IS WIDE DISPARITY IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
TRANSITION TO THE MID-LATITUDES AFTER TAU 72. NOGAPS IS THE EASTWARD
OUTLIER IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM, HENCE THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS
WEST OF CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z,
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

phantom_kid 发表于 2011-6-24 00:14

#8(reasoning)

1、发报时定位及过往路径
日本美军嘉手纳空军基地南南西约500海里处
过去6小时以12kts的速度向西北方向移动

2、过去十二小时分析
季风低压特征明显:LLCC狭长,在中心附近有多个细小的涡旋环流发展
过去6小时LLCC不再裸露,对流围绕中心巩固
使用5幅连续微波图像使定位准确度大幅上升
A.强度
目前强度估计依据:230114Z ASCAT扫描
                           230948Z SSMIS微波图像
                           PGTW主观德沃夏克估计法:35kts
                           德沃夏克法自动估计值:43-49kts      
ASCAT扫描:东半圈出现150英里宽度的大片30-40kts的风力
B.结构
微波图像显示,尽管对流主体偏离中心,但正围绕一个单一的、清晰的中心组织。
C.环流形势
正沿着中心位于28N 145E附近的副热带高压脊西南侧移动
高空流线分析显示,高压脊在130E附近出现弱点,使系统出现明显的偏北分量
黄海到琉球北侧高空有低压区,但在500百帕高空图上并未显现
极向流出目前受到严重抑制,因为系统东北方北纬20度附近TUTT和西北方高空低压存在,高空下沉气流明显
极向流出通道可能打通
赤道向的流出构建良好

3、数值预测概述
在48小时内对路径和强度的预测保持较好的一致性。
72小时后数值模型出现明显分歧,但分歧除GFDN外正在逐渐缩小

4、JTWC预测
A.预测基础及理由
根据ASCAT扫描数据,35kts风力区比之前增加了30%
B.路径
在西风槽达到前越过副热带高压脊脊线
数值显示,起引导作用的小笠原高压在未来48小时内由于高层经向活动逆行到西南方,引导LLCC靠近冲绳西部
JTWC的预测路径在前期比数值偏西,后期偏东,速度在开始变性后偏快
C.强度
根据ASCAT扫描数据,48小时内35kts风圈扩大
风切增强,高空被下沉气流抑制,导致以小于季节平均速率的速度增强
约48小时后在开始转向时达到强度巅峰
48小时后,系统进入海水热焓明显下降的区域(约30N)并开始减弱。
进入黄海后迅速减弱
D.结构
在35N以北遭遇强烈风切变并开始变性。

WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 07W IS SHOWING MANY TRAITS
OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS
ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE MINOR VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS NO LONGER EXPOSED, AND
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. A SERIES OF 5 MICROWAVE IMAGES GENERATED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS HAVE GIVEN A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING CENTER LOCATION.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO CONFIRM THAT ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE BANDING IS
ORIENTED AROUND A SINGLE, DISTINCT VORTEX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A 230114Z ASCAT PASS, THE MICROWAVE
SIGNATURE FROM A 230948Z SSMIS IMAGE, A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW OF 35 KNOTS, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
43 TO 49 KNOTS. THE ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A 150 MILE WIDE SWATH OF 30
TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HENCE THE 35 KNOT
WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED FROM ANALYSIS TIME, AND THE ADJUSTMENTS ARE
THEN REFLECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TS 07W IS
TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N 145E. THE UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A BROAD NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED WEAKNESS ALONG THE 130TH LONGITUDE. THIS IS ALLOWING
TROPICAL STORM MEARI TO TRACK POLEWARD. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE YELLOW SEA TOWARD THE
NORTHERN RYUKUS. THIS LOW IS NOT REFLECTING ON THE 500 MB ANALYSIS,
INDICATING IT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND WILL ACT AS A
SHEARING FORCE BUT NOT A STEERING FORCE. AT THE MOMENT, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW APPEARS SEVERELY IMPINGED, WITH A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LINK UP WITH WHAT LITTLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DOES EXIST, WHICH MAY DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE 35
KNOT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM HAVE BEEN
INCREASED BY 30 PER CENT DUE TO ASCAT DATA AND THE CONSISTENT INPUTS
OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE WIDE EXPANSE OF 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AN
EXPANSION OF THE FORECASTED 35 KNOT WIND RADII THROUGH TAU 48. TS
07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. THESE IMPEDIMENTS WILL KEEP TS
07W DEVELOPING AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. PEAK INTENSITY
WILL COME JUST AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE, NEAR TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE,
RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE RETROGRADING RIDGE WILL
HELP DRIVE THE LLCC WELL WEST OF OKINAWA, BUT GRADIENT COMPRESSION
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE EXPANSIVE WINDFIELD OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM MAY AFFECT THE RYUKUS WITH NEAR-GALE
TO GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLIES. AFTER TAU 48, TS 07W WILL TRACK INTO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN WEAKENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY UNTIL TS 07W ROUNDS
THE CREST OF THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 48.
   C. A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
30TH LATITUDE AND TS 07W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
YELLOW SEA. THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) AND ENCOUNTER SEVERE INCREASES IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE 35TH LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, THE DISPARITY
IS DECREASING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, AND ALL AIDS EXCEPT
GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF SEOUL. THE JTWC TRACK CROSSES FROM
WEST OF CONSENSUS TO EAST OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ONCE XTT
BEGINS. THIS IS DUE TO AN OBSERVED AND DOCUMENTED TENDENCY FOR
CONSENSUS TO BE SLOW AND LEFT OF ACTUAL TRACK IN RECURVATURE AND XTT
SCENARIOS.//
NNNN

rifleman175 发表于 2011-6-24 10:43

#9 Remarks

1.      热带风暴“米雷”中心最新定位:20.2N,125.8E,约位于美军嘉手纳空军基地南南西435海里处。
过去6小时以14knots(节)的时速向西北偏北移动。
定位依据:231659UTC AMSR-E 微波扫描

2.      过去6小时形态、环流分析
A.   米雷低层环流的边缘有无数小型涡旋形成、发展,并围绕系统中心旋转。中心对流开始巩固,低层LLCC不再外露,卫星云图上更容易分辨此系统。
B.   系统中心风力45knots,依据:231220UTC ASCAT 风场扫描

3.      环境场分析、未来路径预测
A.   米雷在东侧副高的引导下,沿其西缘向北行进。根据ASCAT风场扫描,米雷东部和北部皆有大片烈风区,因此米雷的实测以及预报的8级(35knots)烈风圈均被扩大。
B.   在此预报期内,米雷仍然会沿着副高西缘向极地方向移动。
C.   在此期间,系统环境场有利有弊:垂直风切变中等、系统北部一高层低压带来明显的下沉气流、高层赤道方向流出优异。结论:米雷在未来36小时内的增强受限。
D.   48~72预报时后,米雷会在低海温、高风切的影响下,强度迅速减弱,并开始向温带气旋转型。


07W#9
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NUMEROUS SMALL-
SCALE VORTICES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF TS 07W. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION
HAS CONSOLIDATED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS THEREFORE MORE
READILY IDENTIFIED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 231659Z AMSR-
E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH WIND SPEEDS INDICATED IN A 231220Z ASCAT PASS. TS 07W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LARGER IN BOTH THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BASED ON
THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE GALE AREA TO THE EAST AND
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INTRODUCED BY INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL VIE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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