空中急流 发表于 2011-7-11 17:56

鉴于马鞍即将形成,并可能对我国有重大影响,开贴进行该热带气旋的JTWC预报理由翻译。
此前我们已开贴翻译过桑达、莎莉嘉、海马、米雷等台风的报文。

翻译可以意译,在节省自己时间的同时,也可以突出要点,意译提纲:



欢迎各位读者成为翻译者,每翻译一贴加贡献值5和威望5。
有意参与翻译的,直接在本贴回帖即可。

翻译统筹表:

Prognostic Reasoning报数是否有人翻译翻译人楼层TCFA是96151#1-晚11点-reasoning是katrina2#2-早05点-remarks是老干部3#3-早11点-reasoning是空中急流4#4-晚05点-remarks是千羽玄武5#5-晚11点-reasoning是自愚自乐6#6-早05点-remarks是96157#7-早11点-reasoning是 vincent614 8 #8-晚05点-remarks是yangzhe19979#9-晚11点-reasoning是自愚自乐10#10-早05点remarks是 vincent614 11 #11-早11点reasoning是空中急流12#12-晚05点remarks是111113#13-晚11点resoning是rifleman17514#14-早05点remarks是空中急流15 #15-早11点reasoning是vincent61416#16-晚05点remarks是自愚自乐17#17-晚11点reasoning是katrina18#18-早05点remarks是小蜗牛风迷19#19-早11点reasoning是自愚自乐20#20-晚05点remarks是自愚自乐21#21晚11点reasoning是自愚自乐22#22早05点remarks是111123#23早11点reasoning是自愚自乐24#24-晚05点remarks是rifleman17525#25-晚11点reasoning是rifleman17526#26早05点remarks是空中急流27#27早11点reasoning是yangzhe199728#28-晚05点remarks是111129#29-晚11点reasoning是千羽玄武30#30-早05点remarks是空中急流31#31-早11点reasoning是yangzhe199732#32-晚05点remarks是自愚自乐33#33-晚11点reasoning是自愚自乐34#34-早05点-remarks是空中急流35#35-早11点-reasoning是yangzhe199736#36-晚05点-remarks是111137#37-晚11点-reasoning是老干部38#38-早05点-remarks是lawrance39#39-早11点-reasoning是yangzhe199740#40-晚05点-remarks是rifleman17541#41-晚11点-reasoning是千羽玄武42#42-早05点-remarks已定961543#43-早11点-reasoning已定空中急流44#44-晚05点-remarks已定自愚自乐45#45-晚11点-reasoning已定自愚自乐46Final Warning未定47

9615 发表于 2011-7-12 08:37

TCFA翻译

1。未来12至24小时,在18.0N158.4E到19.6N152.4E这个区域内非常可能形成热带气旋。现有数据并不支持在这时编号并发布热带气旋警报。该区的风估计为17至22节。 METSAT的 110000Z云图显示,环流中心位于18.1N157.9E附近。目前该系统以04节的速度向西到西南方向移动。

2。备注:动画多光谱卫星图像和102226Z的TRMM卫星微波图像显示出越来越多的有中心附近的深层对流正在围绕中心转动,但受TUTT给系统西北部带来的下沉气流干扰,不能完全覆盖LLCC。ASCAT在102221Z扫描部分显示了系统东西方向在整合收缩狭长的的LLCC。高层分析表明,该LLCC增强区域位于强流出和低垂直风切变区。 水汽动画图像继续显示其一个TUTT中心加强极地到东部方向的流出。系统最大持续风速估计在17至22节。最低海平面气压估计为1007MB左右。由于有利的高层环境和南部和东部象限对流带的发展,在未来24小时内热带气旋形成的可能性极大。

3。这个警报将视情况升级为警告,或取消


WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 158.4E TO 19.6N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 157.9E.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102226Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CYCLIC AND HAS NOT PERSISTED OVER
THE LLCC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 102221Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (>20 KNOTS) EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
NNNN

把原文补上,我编辑不了你的帖子。

katrina 发表于 2011-7-12 14:22

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
/WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. A 110928Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
AND ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 110742Z
PARTIAL WSAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 08W IS LOCATED IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 08W IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN




1. 提供予氣象學家
2. 12小時總結及分析
A. 熱帶低氣壓08W 集結在安德森空军基地東北偏東約775海浬, 在過去6小時, 他以3節的速度向西移動,
紅外線雲圖動畫顯示系統擁有一個廣闊且狹長的低層環流中心, 中心東側及南側伴隨著加強了的深層對流雲帶.
110928Z的SSMIS微波掃瞄確定現時的定位(可信度為中等), 並且顯示東, 南側的深層對流.
根據PGTW和KNES的德法分析, 強度為25-30節. 110742Z WSAT掃瞄亦說明了30節的風正從LLCC西側捲入.
高層分析顯示08W位於一個強分流區下方, 所處環境風切微弱.
水汽圖動畫展示良好的赤道方向流出及加強了的東北向流出, (流向熱帶對流層上部槽(TUTT).
高空槽及系統西北方的TUTT帶來的下沉氣流將繼續抑制08W北側對流發展.

3. 預報理由
A. 這是第一報預報理由
B. 熱帶低氣壓08W 正緩慢沿低至中層副熱帶高壓南側向西移動, 預料會在未來48小時逐漸增強並向西北偏西移動,
所有數值預報均同意此段時間的預測路徑.
C. 72小時後, 熱帶低氣壓08W將會以更為偏西方向移動並在高海表溫度及良好高空環境下繼續増強.
接近120小時後, 08W會與菲律賓以東的熱帶擾動互相作用, 使他路徑稍為向偏向西南,
總括而言, 數值預報模式同意這後期預測路徑, 所以JTWC的預測接近數值模式.

老干部 发表于 2011-7-12 16:35

第二报预报要点:

定位:UTC11日21时中心在北纬19度,东经155.1度附近。

过去情况概述:目前热带低压08w的中心在日本硫磺岛东南东约860海里的西北太平洋洋面上,过去六小时以10kt每小时的速度向西西北的方向运动。色调强化云图动画显示,系统底层环流中心不断巩固,由深层对流组成的旋臂已经在东侧象限形成。但因21N、152E处一TUTT作祟,系统西北象限受高空辐合下沉气流干扰,对流薄弱,08w也呈现出被干空气入侵的形态。

UTC11日15时8分的AMSR-E 36HZ微波扫描云图(主要针对底层)显示,系统llcc发育良好,中心以南深层对流发展旺盛,并由东侧卷入中心,但卷入力度较弱。我们(JTWC)对系统的定位、对之发出的11Z、12Z警报,就是根据这个微波扫描图而来。由图可知,定位可信度较高。

流出情况也不错。水汽云图动画显示,08w的赤向流出较好,极向流出也在改善中。

路径方面,08w将受深厚副高引导,继续向偏西方向移动。目前各大数值对其路径的预报基本吻合,我们(JTWC)的路径预报也即根据数值的预测结果来。

强度方面,系统在预报周期内将以每天10-15kt的速度增强。

后续发报时间:UTC12日3、9、15、21点。

注:这是第二报发报时点附近的台风云图情况,JTWC和JMA的定位有差异。哪家才是对的?




08W#2(remarks)
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 155.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED
NEAR 21N 152E. A 111508Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WRAPPING
WEAKLY INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS IMAGE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
11/12Z WARNING POSITION 47 NM WNW AND ALSO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED,
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT RATE PER DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.//
NNNN

老干部 发表于 2011-7-12 20:34

代空中急流发第三报reasoning:


1.气象从业者专用.

2.12小时概要和分析.

A. 热带低压(TD)08W,位于距离日本硫磺岛东南东方向大约850海里的地方,在过去6小时内以8kts的速度向西方向移动。动态的多谱线卫星图像(MSI) 勾勒出一个聚合的样子,但是拥有两条深层对流带的狭长的底层环流中心(LLCC)从南和东象限向中心弯曲。由于位于22N,150E附近的热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)相关联的下沉气流,深层的对流只限于系统的东侧象限。一张世界时11号22时02分的SSMIS91hz微波扫描图像显示两条螺旋雨带正卷入底层环流中心(LLCC)的东北部分。世界时11号23点40分的ASCAT图像显示系统中心附近最大风力在30kt左右,而东北象限风力较弱,约为15-25kt。
B. 高层大气分析显示热带低压(TD)08W在一片低(5~10kts)风切变的环境下,并且在东半圆内有良好的高空辐散。动态水汽图像显示系统西北方向的TUTT即将填塞消失,而东北方向的TUTT将加强,这样有利于向极的流出通道去增强。对最初位置我们拥有不错的信心,他是基于ASCAT、SSMIS和动态的多谱线卫星图像(MSI)的参考。最初强度30海里/小时是基于德沃夏克强度评估。

3.预报理由.
A.预报理由较先前报文无较大改变。
B.热带低压(TD)08W沿一低到中层的副高(STR)向西行,预计它将逐渐增强并继续在72小时内向西行走。目前得到的数值在很大程度上支持这种路径预报。
C.72小时后,热带低压(TD)08W向西行进并因为高海面水温和有利的高层环境而增强。大约在96小时内,和菲律宾东部发展中的热带扰动的轻微相互作用可能导致原有预报路径轻微向西南方向倾斜。然而,数值依旧维持高度一致。联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的路径预报较先前偏南。//

08W#3(reasoning)
WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A COALESCING, BUT STILL ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
CURVING TOWARDS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 22N 150E. A 112202Z SSMIS 91H GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE TWO SPIRALING RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE LLCC. A 112340Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE ENTIRE
LLCC, SHOWS 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH 30 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE FROM THE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 08W
IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALLER TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD
08W TO BE FILLING, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGER TUTT CELL FARTHER TO THE EAST LOCATED
NEAR 26N 176W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
REFERENCED ASCAT PASS, SSMIS IMAGE, AND ANIMATED MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 08W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 96, WEAK INTERACTION
WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN

千羽玄武 发表于 2011-7-12 22:58

报文:
世界时7月12日09:00,东经155.0度,北纬18.9度附近,热带风暴08 W(MA-ON),位于日本硫磺岛东南东约850海里海面上,在过去6个小时一直以04海节的速度向偏西北方向移动。动态多普卫星图像 (MSI)显示周围组织有改善但仍是广泛且模糊不清的低水平循环中心(LLCC)。动画水汽图像揭示了一个热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)在21日处于纬度下右的极向辐散通道。上层槽西南方的系统也抑制气流流出流出。照片显示一个11日23时37分 Z AMSUB图像显示干燥的空气流出西北地区的,而一个112201 Z LLCC SSMIS 37兆赫通过显示在西南象限缺乏对流组织和气流扩散。系统的能量仍然分散在一大片区域,在东南象限呈带状延伸远离风暴核心。当前基于MSI和 RJTD的数据分析有一定的分歧但也基本吻合。也有机构协商之后确定的强度。目前的垂直风切变少于10节但是依然稳健地上升。会有很大程度的极向辐散通道在未来的72小时与TS08W产生相互作用。在绝大多数时候会,然而,有时也会作为抑制机制。海平面表面温度平均31度。一个集结于东京东面的反气旋有可能导致08W出现转向,这将迫使系统在未来72小时内采取一个西北西方向的路径。在宏观范围,模型显示出较高的不确定性,他们在强热带风暴可能与一个在菲律宾海的较弱气流循环与此同时一个西南方已经减弱的亚热带高压脊上直接产生相互作用有一定的分歧。最大的浪高有可能是11英尺。下一个警告在12日15时、21时、13日3时和9时。 / / NNNN
REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 155.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NMEAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITEIMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS MILD IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AROUND WHATREMAINS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERICTROUGH (TUTT) ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW.TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPPRESSINGOUTFLOW. AN 112337Z AMSUB IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OFTHE LLCC, WHILE AN 112201Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS SHOWS A LACK OFCONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND GENERALLY DIFFUSEORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM\'S ENERGY REMAINS DISPERSED OVER A BROADREGION, WITH BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EXTENDING WELLAWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT FIX IS BASED ON MSI AND THERE ISGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RJTD FIX. THERE IS ALSO EXACT AGREEMENTBETWEEN AGENCIES ON INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LESSTHAN 10 KNOTS BUT RISES STEADILY ALONG TRACK. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILLVARY WIDELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS TS 08W INTERACTS WITH THETUTT. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, HOWEVER, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS ASUPPRESSING MECHANISM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK AVERAGE31 DEGREES. THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 08W IS AN ANTICYLONECENTERED JUST EAST OF TOKYO, WHICH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM ALONG AWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE,MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER TRACK UNCERTAINTY AS THEY STRUGGLE TORESOLVE POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATIONCURRENTLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA SIMULTANEOUS WITH A SOUTHEASTWARDRE-ORIENTATION AND WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// NNNN
原先那篇有点瑕疵,所以我重新修改了一下再发~

自愚自乐 发表于 2011-7-13 00:32

#5reasoning


1.气象从业者专用.

2.12小时概要和分析.

A. 热带低压(TD)08W现位于距日本硫磺岛东南东方向约800海里处,在过去6小时内以11kts的速度向西移动。最近的动态多谱线卫星图像(MSI) 显示对流在底层环流中心(LLCC)周围巩固和加强。世界时12号7时27分的SSMIS91hz微波扫描图像显示,深层对流正在气旋北和东象限更加完善地建立中。


虽然总降水量图动画显示风暴以西区域水汽含量趋于饱和,但37ghzSSMIS微波扫描图显示西南象限低层云带缺失严重。该螺旋云带缺失现象由与热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)相伴随的下沉气流所致。该槽沿北纬21度延伸。此热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)对气旋的极向流出产生冲击。虽然动态水汽图显示东南方向流出良好,但它也显示出西南象限流出所受的抑制。因此,08W仅在一个象限流出受限。各大机构从根本上肯定了该热带系统能量向周边广泛区域的分散,此分散作用将能量从气旋中心窃走。pgtw, rjtd, and knes等机构基于德沃夏克分析法评估现有强度约35kt。垂直风切约10knots。气旋行进路线上水温30到32度。08W沿副高脊南部边缘行进,副高中心位于东京东南。

3.预报理由.


A.预报原则同先前报文一致。


B.预计未来72小时位于东京东南方的副高稳定少动。使得08W沿副热带高压脊南侧向西北方向稳定前进。行进路线上垂直风切保持15knots以下,高水温维持(30至32℃)。由于该系统不时与TUTT产生相互作用,因此流出会有波动且极向流出会得到促进。但多数时间TUTT会对气旋产生抑制。因此08W未来72小时加强速率小于气象学平均。


气旋强度预报紧随数据模式。预测路径与实际路径高度一致,但沿径速度(along-track speed)却小于预报值。各预报模式对气旋在硫磺岛以南的路径保持一致。更远期预报气旋将极向运动到硫磺岛附近。天气形势有利于气旋在未来5天稳定加强,虽然TUTT会使加强速率慢于正常。路径与先前预测不变但行进速度快于预期。



WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE
AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ
CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING
ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT ALSO SHOWS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THUS, TS 08W HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT ONE QUADRANT. DIFFUSE ORGANIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM\'S ENERGY IS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD REGION,
STEALING ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT INENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES. TS 08W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (BETWEEN 30 AND
32 DEGREES). OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS
WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM.
THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS VIRTUALLY ALL AIDS AS THEY ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, BUT THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO AN OBSERVED TENDENCY OF STRAIGHT RUNNERS TO BE
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
   C. BEGINNING NEAR THE TAU 84-96 PERIOD, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE STORM TO
TURN POLEWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A TRACK SOUTH
OF IWO TO, AND THE LONGER RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING POLEWARD
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO THE RYUKUS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE TUTT
WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ALONG THE SAME TRACK, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED CLOSELY ON STIPS GUIDANCE.//

9615 发表于 2011-7-13 10:35

08W#6(备注)
备注:
122100Z的位置大约在19.3N 153.0E。热带风暴(TS)08W(MA - ON),位于日本硫磺岛东南偏东约760海里的海面上,在过去六小时内以08节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。最近的红外云图动画显示两个对流胞在低层环流中心(LLCC)东西两侧爆发,接近昼夜对流活动最大值。AMSR - E在12/1551Z的89H GHZ和AMSU在12/1541Z的89 GHz扫描图片显示的深层对流集中在LLCC的西部一条卷入的云线和东部的螺旋云带。AMSR - E在12/1551Z 的37H GHZ扫描图像显示,在LLCC仍在东西方向上较为狭长且相当在不对称。最近高空流线分析及动画水汽图像表明,一个辐散源已在TS 08W的上空发展,但最大高空辐散仍然集中在系统的东半圆。风暴的西部和北部的部分仍受到高空辐合和一个热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)中心(其实就是冷涡)下沉气流的负面影响。然而,系统西北的TUTT移动速度比马鞍快,两者之间距离即将拉开,使得西北侧的极向流出逐渐好转。与此同时,系统也将逐渐远离日界线附近更强的TUTT,东北极向流出将减弱。数值模式预报相当一致,只有UKMET例外,比其它预报行进的更南,有利于继续向西行进。本预报倾向于逐渐转向,与大多数数值相吻和。 121800Z最大浪高为13英尺。
接下来的警报将于130300Z,130900Z,1301500Z及132100Z发出/ /
NNNN 08W#6(remarks)
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 153.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FLARING CONVECTIVE LOBES STRADDLING THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM NEARS. A 12/1551Z AMSR-E 89H GHZ AND 12/1541Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN A THIN LINEAR BAND TO THE WEST WITH A LARGER CURVING BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE 12/1551Z 37H GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND VERY ASYMMETRIC IN NATURE. RECENT UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TS 08W BUT MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM ARE STILL BEING NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN PROPAGATING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE MOTION OF TS 08W AND HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP. THE OUTFLOW INTO THE LARGE TUTT CELL, THAT LIES FAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE DATELINE, IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W INCREASES ITS LONGITUDINAL DISTANCE FROM THE CELL. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET WHICH LIES TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWARD RECURVATURE SCENARIO, AS THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS DO, IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 1301500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

vincent614 发表于 2011-7-13 12:44

#7 预报理由
1. 气象从业者专用
2. 12小时总结和分析
A. 热带风暴08W(马鞍)目前位于日本硫磺岛东南东方向约700海里处,过去六个小时以9kts的速度向西北西方向移动。最新多频谱动态卫星图像显示,深度对流已经开始在中心周围形成一个强对流集中带,NOAA-BD反演动画分析显示,在强对流集中带西北和东南部分有轻度断裂,在整个集中带中,云顶温度呈降低趋势,12日23:02Z AMSU 89GHZ图像显示深度对流与新形成的螺旋结合,西南方向存在破碎的水汽供给云带。12日23:14Z的ASCAT扫描显示烈风风力以螺旋形存在于LLCC西北象限,水汽动画显示,存在于08W西北部的热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)在继续向西移动,因此对于08W的影响渐趋减弱。此外,随着08W巩固加强和渐趋良好的上层辐散,它自身开始创造有利于增强的良好大气条件,08W继续远离位于日期变更线附近,保持基本停滞的TUTT槽,但水汽动画显示,连接该TUTT的槽线正在加强南移,从而为08W带来良好的向东流出。根据12日22:12Z的TRMM 37GHZ图像扫描得出的清晰可辨的LLCC,定位可靠度逐渐增加。目前的强度是根据(但稍低于)PGTW、KNES和RJTD得出的德法强度分析。
3 预报理由
A. 预报思路较上一报没有变化。
B. 位于东京东南部的反气旋预料将在未来72小时停滞少动,这将使得08W沿一处副热带中层高压脊的南侧向西北移动,在系统所经处,风切将小于15kts,海温会很高(30-32度之间),各家数值机构72小时内预报相差极小,本报强度预测紧随数值机构预测。
C. 在长期预报期内,08W的超大环流和上层流出将改变中层引导高压脊的形态,这样使得预报路径开始北折。本次路径预报与上一报保持一致,并得到EC和各机构综合路径的支持,NOGAPS、GFDN和GFS目前支持更大的转向角度,只有UKMET仍然支持快速的向西路径。


WDPN31 PGTW 130300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 07//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NMEAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRALIMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM A CONCENTRICRING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THENOAA-BD REVERSE ANIMATION SHOWS SOME FRAGMENTATION OF THE CONCENTRICDEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OFTHE STORM ALONG WITH A TREND OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE ENTIRERING OF CONVECTION. A 122302Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWLY FORMED RING AND FRAGMENTEDFEEDER BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 12/2314Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE GALEFORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERICTROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 08W HAS CONTINUEDTO MOVE WESTWARD, THEREBY HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE STORM.ADDITIONALLY, AS TS 08W CONTINUES TO COALESCE AND INTENSIFY, IT ISSTARTING TO DEVELOP ITS OWN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO INCREASINGUPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TS 08W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROMTHE QUASISTATIONARY TUTT CELL POSITIONED FURTHER TO THE EAST NEAR THEDATELINE, HOWEVER, THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE TROUGHINGASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT IS DEEPENING AND DIGGING EQUATORWARD WHICHIS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS INCREASEDCONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 122212Z TRMM 37GHZIMAGE AND THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CURRENTINTENSITY IS BASED ON (BUT ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN) DVORAKESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD.3. FORECAST REASONING.A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAINSTEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON AWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID-LEVELSUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAINBELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH(BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENTTHROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCECLOSELY.C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 08W WILL MODIFY THEMID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM AND THEASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FORTHE FORECAST TRACK TO BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN. THE TRACK FORECASTREMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SUPPORTED BYTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL. THE REMAINING MODELS HAVESHIFTED ABRUPTLY WITH NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS NOW INDICATING A SHARPER,MORE POLEWARD RECURVATURE. THE UKMET MODEL IS THE SOLE MODELINDICATING A FAST WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.//NNNN

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-13 20:21

下午5点报Remaks

国际时间13日9时,08w的位置接近19.8N,150.8E
热带风暴08W马鞍,国际时间13日9时中心位于日本硫磺岛东南偏东方约650海里,在过去的6小时内,以每小时13节的速度向西北西方向移动。

多光谱卫星动画显示其组织在24小时内稳步发展。对流也正在越来越接近底层环流中心(LLCC),并且在系统原先有相对较少云系的西南象限也有很好的发展。水汽动画云图显示,有一个有效的TUTT在21N附近延伸,并继续压制极向流出。不过12小时候,由于马鞍的增强,它对周边环境的主导能力也将提升,TUTT对它极向流出的抑制作用也将减弱。

水汽动画还先显示出系统西侧有一深槽(即高空冷涡)严重影响高层流出,并不断干扰其西部环流,因此综合看来,系统只有其东南象限发展不错,对流自核心区向东南方向伸展甚远,系统能量有不少被分散至东南侧。
在最新两个130245Z AMSRE 和 130613Z SSMI微波扫描图像中显示,在系统的北侧象限缺乏对流,但仍能扫描出眼壁结构。


总体说来,08w以略低于气候平均值的速度加强。引导机制上,马鞍位于强盛副高的南侧,该副高已使日本热浪滚滚,预计未来72小时内仍将保持稳定,推动08W向西北偏西方向移动。与此同时,马鞍将继续增强,预计每天加强15——20kts。72小时后,副高将减弱,琉球群岛附近将出现弱点。

各大数值在72小时后的预测结果差异很大,其中NOGAPS和GFS认为系统在日本关东以南洋面就转向并一头撞向副高;而EGRR则是西进派,认为系统将沿纬度线径直向西走;JGSM,ECMWF则认为系统将沿倾斜的副高南缘移动,路径受副高形态影响—这是目前看来最为合理的预测。

JTWC的预报路径在72小时内与数值共识一致,72小时候则与数值平均值偏南,但比欧中数值偏北。与路径相比,各大数值对马鞍的强度预测把握较大,在进入中纬度斜压区之前,系统将增强;进入斜压区之后,系统将减弱。目前中纬度急流区刚伸展到北朝鲜---北海道一线,因此系统在登陆之前都会处于纯粹的热带环境下;系统行进方向海域直到对马海峡都是高水温的天堂,因此系统在登陆之前没有什么理由减弱。

后续警报将在131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z发出。

非常感谢“老干部”的部分翻译工作和修改工作。。 REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 150.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FILLED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
WAS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE 24 HOURS AGO. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
REVEALS THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) EXTENDING ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THE INHIBITION HAS EASED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO SHAPE ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION ALSO EXPOSES A DEEP TROUGH IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THUS THE ONLY QUADRANT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND OVER THAT QUADRANT,
CONVECTION SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
DISPERSING ENERGY FROM THE CORE. THE LATEST TWO MICROWAVE IMAGE
SERIES, A 130245Z AMSRE AND A 130613Z SSMI, BOTH CONFIRM A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT THEY DO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE AGGREGATE, TS 08W IS SHOWING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU
(THE SAME FORCE BEHIND THE BRUTAL HEAT WAVE IN MAINLAND JAPAN). THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL DRIVE TS 08W ON A STEADY COURSE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE IT INTENSIFIES AT A RATE OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20
KNOTS PER DAY. AFTER TAU 72, THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST, OPENING A WEAKNESS OVER THE NORTHERN
RYUKUS. THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITHNOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACKTHE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN STAYS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF, IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. OF
GREATER CERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THAN THE TRACK IS THE
INTENSITY. IT IS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT A POLEWARD TRACK WOULD NOT BE
THE COMMON RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH THE STORM ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LEVEL
MODIFICATION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF STIPS GUIDANCE, CLOSER
TO ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
页: [1] 2 3 4 5
查看完整版本: 2011-06号“马鞍”台风(08W.Ma-on)之JTWC预报理由翻译贴