yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-14 14:36

又是一个,大家积极报名吧。。整理须知见http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43189
追击贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43250

佛山通 发表于 2011-7-14 14:56

引用楼主yangzhe1997于2011-07-14 14:36发表的 92W开放整理贴暨追击帖优质内容收集帖 :
又是一个,大家积极报名吧。。整理须知见http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43250
追击贴:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43250images/back.gif

怎么两个网址都是一样的?

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-14 14:58

回 1楼(佛山通) 的帖子

偶错了。。

小蜗牛风迷 发表于 2011-7-16 17:39

1楼~100楼
11日下午
0楼:生成时水汽
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_17687_98fb2ed00312122.jpg
3楼:生成时红外云图
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_26964_a7661b6a4b4d5d1.jpg
7楼:刚生成就被评级LOW

16.7N,135.5E,就是在雅浦岛北北西460海里处有一块对流。多频微波扫描显示在LLCC附近有深层对流。高层分析表明LLCC正位于一个高空反气旋之下,有良好的流出和低的风切变。我们估计现在它中心附近最大风力10~15KT,气压1009hpa。未来24小时它的发展机会低。


9楼:环境场
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_37550_66c0eef1582b7d1.gif
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_37550_7aba5b28aab926d.gif
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_37550_65225b803786594.gif

39楼:小乔认为形势什么都有可能发生
引用第39楼真宫寺小乔于2011-07-12 13:16发表的 回 37楼(michaeljackson) 的帖子 :
92W要不想吞掉,现在来看还有差不多4天时间
从风场上看08W虽然还在远洋,但其已经与季风槽东端有所勾搭,一旦被08W抢去水汽,92W就只能面临被吸收命运
而如果92W发展成功为09W并得到命名,远洋的08W南侧水汽会被92W夺走,虽然有大面积高海温维持但是从环流大小看要远小于08W夺去水汽供应权,这样一个大环流但强度弱的TC跟一个小环流但强度强的TC藤原,出啥结果谁也不知道,或许2002年风神会再次上演也不好说 images/back.gif


40楼:08W+92W
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_27105_d3e55c042ef9865.jpg

41楼:维持LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
135.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO
ORGANIZE AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN A DIFFUSE AND FRAGMENTED MONSOON TROUGH. A
120121Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112316Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
TUTT CELLS ON BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE TUTT CELLSARE CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 120000Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN
A DIFFLUENT REGION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TUTT CELLS MAY OPEN A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. CURRENTLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31
DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_37550_d63e0a3fdb923fa.jpg

44楼:继续维持LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
135.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO
ORGANIZE AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN A DIFFUSE AND FRAGMENTED MONSOON TROUGH. A
120121Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112316Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TUTT
CELLS ON BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
TUTT CELLS ARE CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 120000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TUTT CELLS MAY OPEN A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. CURRENTLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31 DEGREES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_37550_7181af12b8782b6.jpg

49楼:92W对流消散严重
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_26625_f30420852271840.gif

52楼:13日早底层扫描
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_3253_29e025c062a0124.jpg

65楼:仍然维持LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A 121917Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS MORE ABUNDANT
BANDING, BUT THERE REMAINS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE A
PRODUCT OF STRAIGHT-LINE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN, DUE
MOSTLY TO AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT
STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED
OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE, ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, AND DECENT BUT NOTHING SPECIAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS EXTENSIVE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICALWIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTHE AREA ARE
31 DEGREES. THE 130000Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CLOSED, ALBEIT WEAK CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

69楼:多频微波
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_37550_743004a368792ce.jpg

70楼:JMA升格TD1006hpa
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_37550_e0336645717b9ef.png

78楼:13日晚仍然维持LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A 121917Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS MORE ABUNDANT
BANDING, BUT THERE REMAINS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE A
PRODUCT OF STRAIGHT-LINE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN, DUE
MOSTLY TO AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT
STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED
OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE, ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, AND DECENT BUT NOTHING SPECIAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS EXTENSIVE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICALWIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTHE AREA ARE
31 DEGREES. THE 130000Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CLOSED, ALBEIT WEAK CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

99楼:A-LI的分析

顶多会被08W西移靠近後,吸收并吞要不然就是被迫往南压。
从云图上看,92W就像是个袖珍TC雏型样,且对流近几个小时发展旺盛,不过偏在其西南侧。
另外注意去看LLCC似乎偏在强对流东北处,白天在来看看可见光图应能看的更仔细。
所在风切虽微弱,但随着马鞍靠近有逐渐裸露趋势。 

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_27620_baaa173319cc6e0.jpg
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_27620_675c6a2979c8a89.jpg

100楼:T值给定到1.5
引用第100楼夏天天于2011-07-14 06:37发表的:
13/2032 UTC   15.0N    133.1E       T1.5/1.5         92W -- West Pacific
images/back.gif

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-16 19:01

回 3楼(小蜗牛风迷) 的帖子

101——200
http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_27620_836fcdf23af96ec.jpg?355
103楼:云图+定位
120楼:云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_15705_2fc2b63b42df6a3.jpg?157
126楼:SSD降为3格http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_29286_7d4b152adf7afe5.png?12
130楼:92W的水汽被马鞍即将吸附。http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_2661_c80dbbb4f0d5a0d.jpg?34http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_19904_9503070bf98ac08.gif?32
149楼:引导气流图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/photo/Mon_1107/533_8e70131062543406673bcce3c2611.gif
151楼:风切很大http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_20121_d7cafcaf41dbd62.gif?226
159楼:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_27620_38a43efb512878b.jpg?111
167楼:JMA天气图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_49260_17962e9e92746d2.png?59
168楼:小蜗牛经典图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_29286_3bd4bac2c2fa961.png?1161
178楼:微波扫描http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_2756_0b48f215c4c7eec.jpg?381
193楼:风云二号云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_2950_a3f100e46fd2787.jpg?244
194楼:VIS云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_7012_9195df354185782.jpg?823
198楼:云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_26179_cf069bcdba2b6b9.jpg?36
199楼:大风预报http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_38359_fc76b597013ec6b.jpg?30

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-17 19:54

201到397楼
208楼:微波扫描http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_20707_0861d615d4d4cca.jpg?224
211楼:风场扫描http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_23112_0df7c09234074f1.png?42
218楼:JMA预报http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_30471_1894d0263bab676.png?16
248楼:云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_30575_683684e9ac70bd4.jpg?525
269楼:天气图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_20707_3d5b81a05be14ec.png?46
273楼:个人分析云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_2661_b29eb51ea780e51.jpg?64
306楼:JMA预报图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/photo/Mon_1107/528_725d13107126980994e2e883c3f0e.png
312楼:CMA预报图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_26427_ff3c07a8741d0ac.png?8
313楼:水汽云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_52155_810a08329d80c10.jpg?247
314楼:高解析云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_2366_a2283d9fac3d255.png?142
322楼:小蜗牛分析图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_29286_c5fbcaead2bbbd8.png?1842
330楼:小蜗牛分析图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/thumb/Mon_1107/11_29286_47e68a33b294eb0.png?920
337楼:CMA停编
350楼:吸收在即http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_14264_058d05809f45029.gif?200
372楼:可见光云图http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_26179_b64faa5dd3093b3.jpg?523
380楼:小乔经典哀悼词
<DIV mb10?>写一悼词吧... <DIV mb10?>蝎虎的一生,完全是短暂而辉煌的一生,如果用一种动物来形容蝎虎的话,我感觉,蜉蝣最适合蝎虎...<DIV mb10?>蜉蝣的幼虫可以存活2年,而蝎虎的前身92W存在时间也不短,从7月11日到7月15日12:05,存在了4天,相对于很多短命扰动来说也算是不短了<DIV mb10?>蜉蝣的幼虫在自由觅食,但很多生物喜欢以浮游幼虫为食,同时它的同胞也会为了自己的生存而争夺食物,竞争和弱肉强食是生物界的法则,同样,92W自诞生起就处在一团乱局中,西太的季风槽像是得了什么病似的不停地产扰动,但是却始终组织不起一个像样的TC来,在这个西太乱局中,只有不断吸收和抢夺水汽,不断整合和发展自己的环流,同时尽可能抑制住自己的对手并吸收掉对手,才有可能得到发展,而无数的扰动就是在这个环境中夭折的,92W出生在这个时间内真是生不逢时,竞争和弱肉强食从来不是生物界的专属...<DIV mb10?>当蜉蝣的幼虫抢夺了足够的食物,壮实了自己,同时在2年之内不被吃掉的话,就有羽化的可能,同样,92W自生成后基本处在原地,很好的保持了自己的环流和水气供应,随着季风槽的东移离去,一大片的海区只有其一个扰动存在,于是,92W就默默地独自发展。<DIV mb10?>当蜉蝣的幼虫开始羽化的时候,如果条件不好无法顺利变成成虫的话,就有可能死在羽化过程,同样,随着巨大的08W气势汹汹地移来,留给92W发展的时间已然不多,而92W却利用这短暂的时间内通过爆发对流的方式来争取自己的“羽化”。<DIV mb10?>当蜉蝣的幼虫成功羽化成为成虫的时候,蜉蝣一生最辉煌的时刻到来,同样,08W的逼近虽然带来了强风切,将92W中心对流不断切离,但92W却依旧不断暴着对流,最后凭借完整的LLCC,以及中心对流短暂的覆盖,终于被JMA认定为TS,并获得了“蝎虎”的名称,负重的92W终于变成09W,并达到一生的辉煌顶点。<DIV mb10?>当蜉蝣成虫开始飞行的时候,就意味着其生命只剩下1天的时间,同样,蝎虎命名后,08W的不断逼近,使得蝎虎被迫向东移动,并入08W的环流不可避免。<DIV mb10?>当蜉蝣进行了交配后,就意味着其生命即将终结,同样,在获得命名18小时后,虽然蝎虎中心仍旧在爆发对流,爆发出的对流不断被切离,但是08W的外围环流开始覆盖蝎虎中心,蝎虎距离被吞并只剩下不长的时间了<DIV mb10?>当夜间到临,蜉蝣的生命就会终结,同样,在16日8时,蝎虎进一步被08W吸收,虽然爆发的云系仍旧存在,但是已经开始与08W南侧幅散云系整合,JMA降格,蝎虎一生结束,生命史21个小时。<DIV mb10?>蜉蝣虽然渺小,但是其存在也为大自然增添了一分色彩,同样,蝎虎虽然被吸收,但是其渺小的身躯也对08W产生了一定的影响,同样为2011年西太台风季增添一分色彩。<DIV mb10?> <DIV mb10?>383楼:微波扫描http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/p_w_upload/Mon_1107/11_21118_b3d24e8bbd39cea.jpg?477<DIV mb10?>

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-18 14:50

做完了,可以移档案了,小蜗牛,先把这里的分给结了吧,多给点贡献。。
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