Anonymous 发表于 2011-7-14 15:14

鉴于机构对菲东扰动92W已经发布TCFA,并进一步加强为蝎虎,开此贴进行该热带气旋的JTWC预报理由的翻译。
此前我们已开贴翻译过桑达、莎莉嘉、海马、米雷、马鞍等台风的报文。   

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翻译统筹表:
Prognostic Reasoning报数是否有人翻译翻译人楼层TCFA #1(140600Z)
有11111TCFA #2(150600Z)
有小蜗牛风迷2#1有小蜗牛风迷3#2有老干部4

1111 发表于 2011-7-14 16:08

TCFA

在未来12至24小时内14.1N,133.0E附近180nm范围内有较大可能形成一股热带气旋。现有数据并不支持在这时编号并发布热带气旋警报。据估计,该地区风力约有17至22KT。140600Z卫星云图显示低层环流中心位于14.1N,133.0E附近,系统正以每小时3KT的速度向西南方向移动。
Remarks:
      多光谱卫星云图动画显示,在组织性渐强的LLCC附近对流发展渐趋旺盛,140426Z的AMSU高温切面图和132321Z的SSMIS云图显示主对流位于系统南侧,发展中的对流逐渐卷入LLCC。140040Z的局部风场扫描图表明系统北侧有20kt的风流入LLCC。高层分析显示系统LLCC高空辐散状况非常好,系统所处环境风切也较小。受一高空低涡系统影响,北侧对流发展暂时受到限制。
      据估算系统海平面最大持续风速约为17至22kt,最低气压在1006HPa附近。由于LLCC的逐渐巩固,以及受惠于高空良好的辐散,系统在未来24小时内发展为一股热带气旋的机会颇高。

WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.1N 133.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 140426Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 132321Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOW SPIRAL LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDS. A 140040Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS). CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS TEMPORARILY HINDERED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150600Z.//
NNNN

小蜗牛风迷 发表于 2011-7-15 17:20

TCFA-REISSUED
先前在13.6N,132.2E的对流区,目前正位于14.1N,132.6E,也就是在帕劳西北西方向约430海里处。动态的多频微波扫描展示了一个完全外露的LLCC,它的对流正被切向70海里外的系统西南部地区。而高层扫描显示LLCC正处于高层流出极好和低的风切变环境中(<15KT)。马鞍的流出仍然持续抑制着92W的对流发展。目前地面的最大风速我们估计差不多在15~20KT之间,而最低的气压应该在1004HPA左右。综合考虑非常完好的LLCC和很好的环境,未来24小时92W发展为一个热带气旋的可能性仍然大。

小蜗牛风迷 发表于 2011-7-15 17:44

#1..
联合台风警报中心关于热带低压09W(蝎虎)的第一报在15日17时
基本概况:
15日14时,共有2个活动热带气旋在西北太平洋;
过去6小时向东南以10km/h的速度移动;
目前定位准确度在60海里范围;
定位使用卫星云图;
目前强度25KT,定位在14.0N,133.1E
目前引起的海浪数据不明。

备注:
17时中心位于14.3N,133.9E。
热带低压09W(蝎虎),位于帕劳北北西方向约410海里处,向西南方向以10km/h的速度移动。动态卫星云图显示LLCC全部外露,对流正切向系统西南大约60海里。15:22的SSMI微波扫描证明了LLCC是外露的以及对流所切的方向.目前的强度由德沃夏克分析法估计在25~30KT。今早8时的ASCAT风场扫描也显示有一个不错的LLCC,并且在南面有25~30KT的风速,在北面则有15~20KT的风速。09W目前正经受着和马鞍的相互作用,并且正开始加速向马鞍靠拢,并且在36小时后完全被马鞍吸收。热带低压蝎虎并不被看好加强,因为08W的高层流出已经在抑制其中心的发展。可用的数值对这种合并方案一致性还可以。

REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 133.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 150722Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE EXPOSED LLCC POSITION AND THE DISPLACED
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
150021Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH 08W AND IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP AND BEGIN
TRACKING INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO TY 08W NEAR TAU 36. TD TOKAGE IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY,AS
OUTFLOW FROM TY 08W IS ALREADY INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS MERGER SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 140551Z JUL 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140600). NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z,
152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

老干部 发表于 2011-7-15 23:15

第二报预报要点:

热带低压09w,即蝎虎,目前中心在帕劳岛以北约395海里的海面上,过去六小时以每小时11海里的速度向偏东方向移动。
色调强化云图动画显示,蝎虎的底层环流中心完全外露,深层对流被切离至中心西-西南侧50海里处。UTC15日8时49分的SSMIS微波扫描图像也证实了这种情况。
蝎虎目前的强度为25kt左右,从PGTW,KNES,RJTD根据德法评估的强度综合而来。环境场分析表明,尽管09w高层辅散不错,所处地海温较高,但因马鞍的高层辅散气流影响,09w始终不能在其中心附近保住对流。
蝎虎将继续向北-东北方向移动,并在24小时内被马鞍完全吸收。各大数值对“马鞍吸收蝎虎”也达成较好的一致。

注:因蝎虎已被CMA撤编,且即将被马鞍吸收,本台风翻译结束。

WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (TOKAGE)//
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395
NM NORTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A 150849Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE EXPOSED LLCC POSITION AND THE DISPLACED
CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT WHILE TD 09W IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OUTFLOW FROM TY 08W IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD TOKAGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO TY 08W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
MERGER SCENARIO.//
NNNN
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