rifleman175 发表于 2011-7-24 16:30

JTWC已经对93W发出了TCFA,台风洛坦预计很快就要生成了。所以翻译贴开张,对JTWC的预报理由(prognostic reasoning)开始翻译。有兴趣加入翻译小组的童鞋们,请在本帖回复,谢谢!

老规矩,鼓励全译,但时间如果紧迫的话,意译亦可。

排班表

PrognosticReasoning报数
是否有人翻译
翻译人
楼层
#1 TCFA

rifleman175
1
#1 remarks25日早5点

lan0609
2
#2 reasoning25日早11点

yangzhe1997
3
#3 remarks25日晚5点

rifleman175
4
#4 reasoning25日晚11点

katrina
5
#5 remarks26日早5点

空中急流
6
#6 reasoning26日早11点

yangzhe1997
7
#7 remarks26日晚5点

自愚自乐
8
#8 reasoning26日晚11点

rifleman175
9
#9 remarks27日早5点

空中急流
11
#10 reasoning27日早11点

yangzhe1997
10
#11 remarks27日晚5点

自愚自乐
12
#13 remarks28日早5点

空中急流
13
#14 reasoning 28日早11点

y4t7sds12
14
#15 remarks 28日晚5点

自愚自乐
15
#16 reasoning 28日晚11点

自愚自乐
16
#17 remarks 29日早5点

自愚自乐
17
#18 reasoning 29日早11点

rifleman175
18
#19 remarks 29日晚5点

rifleman175
19
#20 reasoning 29日晚11点

avril
20
#21 remarks 30日早5点

空中急流
21
#22 reasoning 30日早11点

yangzhe1997
22
Final Warning

yangzhe1997
23

--------------------------------------------
相关链接:
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)追击帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43556
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)机构预报帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43641
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)深度追击帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43668
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)实况帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43648
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)优质内容收集帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43642
1108号"洛坦“台风(10W Nock-Ten)吹水、闲聊帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43640

rifleman175 发表于 2011-7-24 16:32

TCFA翻译

1. 在未来12至24小时内,沿12.6N,129.5E至13.9N,125.5E一线左右110海里的区域里可能有显著热带气旋(TC)生成。该扰动附近的风力估计为17至22节(knots),24日0000UTC的METSAT卫星云图也显示93W的环流中心现位于12.4N,128.8E附近。根据目前所掌握的数据,该扰动还不具备被编号的资格。

2. 概述:之前位于12.3N,129.7E附近的一片对流云团现位于12.4N,128.9E附近,也就是在菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约470海里的海面上。最新动态多光谱扫描显示93W的LLCC虽然裸露在外,但对流正在绕其中心慢慢巩固中。从红外卫星云图来看,在过去24小时内,93W的LLCC南部和西部边缘都有螺旋云带发展,对流加深,但总体结构依旧较差。93W所处的环境中垂直风切可达15至20 knots,而LLCC位于副高脊线以西。93W的赤道方向流出一般,这点可从动态水汽图中看出来。不过,随着一个TUTT在未来24小时内从东北方向接近系统,93W的极向流出通道有望打开。与此同时,随着系统逐渐北上,其环境中的垂直风切变将会减小,从而更加促使其发展。根据最新的风场反演图和附近气象站测量值的外推,93W的最大持续风速估计可达17至22 knots。中心最低气压估计为1006 mb左右。由于93W的结构组织与环境场的好转,未来24小时内该扰动发展成一显著热带气旋的概率已被升格为高(high)。

3. 此TCFA会在25日0630UTC之前,被升格为TC预警、维持TCFA或者取消。//
NNNN

WTPN21 PGTW 240630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 129.5E TO 13.9N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 128.8E.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.3N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
SLOWLY BUILDING OVER A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THAT HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN A POLEWARD OOUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY, AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE
VWS WILL RELAX AND PROMOTE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO
INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250630Z.//
NNNN

lan0609 发表于 2011-7-24 16:44

- -羞愧啊,就这么一点东西我鸡然搞了四天多(而且只有remark),个中原因很多但我不想讲了
既然拖了这么多天工资我觉得也可以不发了
10W #1(概述)
概述:
热带低压10W,25日早上5点的位置接近于北纬13.1度,东经127.2度。(也就是)在菲律宾马尼拉南东南大约四百海里。其路径在过去6小时以每小时7kt的速度朝西北西移动。多光谱卫星动画(MSI)显示其对流增强及巩固了低层环流中心(LLCC)。24号20点PGTW的高层流线分析表明LLCC正在分流极向的赤反。风切为10到15kts。而水汽图像显示,由热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)所带来的向北流出的抑制也正在缓和。在未来24小时内,TUTT内的一个小单体很有可能会与10W相连,并促进10W极向流出通道的形成。赤向流出也很好。SST超过30度。
24号19点54分的AMSRE卫星图像显露出集结于LLCC一侧的旋臂,以及西北象限增强的深层对流。SAMAR岛沿岸和吕宋西南的地面天气报告一致表示离岸有涌浪以及海上20到25节的风力。一份24日21点的ASCAT风场图像也显示了一个有20kt的风速的LLCC(东北象限)。热带低压10W目前位于一个引导气流弱的环境中,它将穿过副热带高压(STR)西南的弱点。副高被一个反气旋固定于接近北纬35度,东经160度附近。这个反气旋正朝东南移动在中期提供更强的气流给此系统。并将在它移动到吕宋海峡之时(在48到72小时内)给它更多的向西分量。
数值预报到目前为止是可用但不一致的。首48小时,JTWC的预测使用了 CONSTANT BEARING 和由最佳路径定位得到的速度(?)。结果接近于NOGAPS VORTEX路径和ECMWF的模型。这次一致的预测也基于在大量的ASCAT图像之上。目前与PGTW一样由德沃夏克法得出20kt的强度。预报的集中度仍维持在各大预报之上。根据以往经验,预期菲律宾海的风切变将整体减弱。这个警报取代并取消了24号14点21分发出的热带气旋形成警报(TCFA)。下次警报将在25号的11点、17点、21点,26号的5点发出。//
10W#01(remarks)
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 127.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 241200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT
REGION POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS EASED FROM TO 10-15 KNOTS, ANDANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SUPPRESSION OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW BY THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS ALSO EASING. GOOD
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL CELL WITHIN THE TUTT TO LINK WITH THE
SYSTEM AND FACILITATE FORMATION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES. A 241154Z AMSRE IMAGE
REVEALS THICK CURVED BANDING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC,
WITH PERSISTENT AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHERN
LUZON ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND PRESSURES
CORRESPONDING TO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS. A 241317Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING THROUGH A WEAKNESS SOUTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR
35N 160E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RETROGRADING SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE FORCEFUL STEERING TO THE SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM TERM, WHICH WILL
FORCE IT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT
(BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72). WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SO FAR IS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST USES CONSTANT BEARING AND
SPEED FROM THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS,
WHICH COMES OUT BEING CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKER AND THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED EQUATORWARD BY
GFS AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL. THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS BASED
HEAVILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND IS OF GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS ALSO BASED HEAVILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE, AS WELL AS A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 20 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HISTORICALLY FERTILE GROUNDS OF THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE EXPECTATION OF AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 240621Z
JUL 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 240630 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-25 12:42

1.气象从业者专用
2.12小时总结与分析
A.热带低压10W位于菲律宾首都马尼拉东南偏东方向400海里,在过去的6小时内,以每小时4海里的速度向西北方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示,对流正在逐渐发展并覆盖LLCC,水汽云图显示,其云顶温度显著下降,并且系统的南半圆的对流正在发展。242112Z 91GHZ SSMIS云图显示对流正在覆盖更多范围。但37GHZ的图像显示其组织起来的速度较为缓慢。但是THE 241200Z 上层分析LLCC正在分流极向的赤反。目前风切为10——15Kts。目前水汽云图和流线图分析,目前北纬15度东北风将转为偏北风,其东北风将增强中国东部的季节性反气旋。目前赤向流出不错,海温也控制在30度以上。一个241317Z
ASCAT图像显示只有在系统的东部有20海里/每小时的风速。目前10W的引导气流较为偏弱,准备过副高南脊的弱侧。在中国的东部副高的弱侧存在一个鞍形场。这是副高,副高的中心位于35N,160E。由于现在组织缓慢,必须有一个良好的定位,目前定位在MSI(动画多光谱云图)的西侧。强度是基于PGTW,RJTD德法分析出的20——25KTS。
B.由于目前其引导气流若,所以将沿着西北西方向移动,菲律宾海有着很高的海温,所以其极向流出将受到压制。48小时后,副高将受到到一个转向气旋的影响,导致系统西移。在此期间,吕宋岛东北部的风切将从30Kts降到20Kts。在72小时后,风切的减弱将持续并且系统的移速将缓慢加快。目前JTWC的路径预测和强度预测将接近NOGAPS和EC的数值预报。其他则预报其将通过吕宋的中部并从林家延沿岸出海。但是系统底层太弱去引导系统一直向西,所以NOGAPS和EC的数值预报似乎更可靠一些。
C.一旦10W进入吕宋,引导其移动的副高将移动到中国的东部,所以将风切将增强,系统将会在登陆前减弱。预计其延伸预报将有很大的不确定性。但系统的趋于稳定,所以以后的中长期的预报的准确率将提高。
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W//
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING AND
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALED SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE CLOUD
TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE CONVECTION DEEPENED. A
242112Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS PASSES SHOWS
GREATER COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IS SLOW TO ORGANIZE. THE 241200Z PGTW
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEAL SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR NORTH OF 15 DEGREES LATITUDE. THE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE SPINNING
OUT OF THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE PLANTED OVER EASTERN CHINA, WHICH
HAS SURGED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST WEEK. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
WELL ESTABLISHED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES.
SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHERN LUZON ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND PRESSURES
CORRESPONDING WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS. A 241317Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AS A COL BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 35N 160E. DUE TO THE SLOW ORGANIZATION THUS FAR, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON MSI AND
SURFACE REPORTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES, AS WELL AS THE EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM
PRESSURE REPORTS BY COASTAL STATIONS ALONG SAMAR AND LUZON.
   A. THERE IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. POLAR OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED, KEEPING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS ABOVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, BASED ON THE HISTORICALLY FERTILE
GROUNDS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE PRESENCE OF WELL-ESTABLISHED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BEGINNING NEAR TAU 48, THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE IT
ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE TOWARDS THE LUZON STRAIT. DURING THIS
PROCESS, THE 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTHEAST OF LUZON WILL
EASE TO BELOW 20 KNOTS AND ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED BUT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SO
FAR IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST USES CONSTANT BEARING AND SPEED FROM THE CURRENT BEST TRACK
POSITION FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS, WHICH COMES OUT BEING CLOSE TO THE
NOGAPS TRACKER AND THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL.OTHER AIDS ARE
TRACKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL LUZON AND OUT THE LINGAYEN GULF,
AND CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED EQUATORWARD BY THOSE MODELS.THE FLOW
IN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO DRIVE A SYSTEM ON
A STRAIGHT WESTWARD COURSE.HENCE, THE TRACK INDICATEDBY ECMWF
AND NOGAPS APPEARS MORE VIABLE.
   C. ONCE TD 10W IS IN THE LUZON STRAIT, THE STEERING MECHANISM
WILL SHIFT FROM THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE EASTERN CHINA
ANTICYCLONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGES IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A WIDE DISPARITY IN WHAT
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND MODELS STABILIZE,
CERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECASTS WILL INCREASE.
NNNN


rifleman175 发表于 2011-7-25 17:21

#3 概述翻译

25日0900UTC最新位置:13.8N,126.4E
热带低压(TD)10W现在位于菲律宾马尼拉以东约335海里的洋面上,过去6小时以9节(knots)的时速向西北移动。从动态多光谱图上来看,10W的LLCC部分裸露在中心对流的东部。而红外卫星云图动画也显示,10W初生的螺旋云带对流加深,并卷入系统中心;而10W的结构、组织也愈发明显。10W目前定位是根据红外云图动画而定的,可信度中等。系统目前强度则是根据24日0152UTC的ASCAT风场扫描图推断出的:该图显示10W西北象限的风速有30 knots。对流层高层分析也指出,10W现在位于副高脊线附近,并伴有低至中等强度(10至20 knots)的东风风切变。动态水汽图也显示10W西南缘的赤向流出通道畅通。当前主体在日本的深层副高向10W附近伸出一道高压脊,受该脊引导,10W在未来48小时内会朝西北方向前进,强度沿途增强。在此之后,随着副高脊线的东退,10W的路径转西,并最终在96预报时后登陆香港以东北。目前的数值预报路径集合分叉30度,UKMET在极左,NOGAPS在极右。JTWC认为副高的东退可能较为明显,因此本次预报路径倾向于数值共识路径的右侧。下次预警时间:251500UTC、252100UTC、260300UTC以及260900UTC。//
NNNN

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 126.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY
EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. TIME LAPSE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO
THE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM A 240153Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE WEAK NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF
JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THIS
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AFTERWHICH, IT WILL PROCEED ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING RIDGE RECEDES,
EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG AFTER TAU 96. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH
UKMET TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS FAVORING A RECEDING STR.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

katrina 发表于 2011-7-25 23:57

2.
熱帶低氣壓10W集結在馬尼拉以東約255海里, 在過去六小時加速以13節向西北移動. 紅外線雲圖動畫顯示中心對流被切向LLCC西方, 強而有組織的對流繼續捲入. 現時定位是根據紅外雲圖動畫確定, 強度則來自PGTW及KNES的德法分析, 高層分析顯示系統位於高空脊線以南, 10W所在位置的東風切為中等(15-20節). 水汽雲圖指出系統西南象限為赤道向流出通道. 10W正沿日本以東副高西南延伸脊移動.
3.
A. 預測機理並沒有改變
B. 10W將緩慢地增強並在未來72小時大致維持過去的走向, 登陸香港東北方凡粵東沿海. 沿途的海表溫度繼續支持系統的發展, 垂直風切則減弱至10-15節, 為微弱至中等.
C. 預料10W會在72小時後的短期內登陸, 並已熱帶氣旋的狀態減弱消散, 有效的數值出現角度為30度的分歧, UKMET偏西, NOGAPS則偏東, 對應東退的副高脊, JTWC的預測則偏向數值共識的東方.


WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W//
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPOXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THE FORMATIVE BANDS
FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE CONTINUE HAVE MAINTAINED DEPTH AND
ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY
OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE (OVER 28 CELSIUS) WHILE VWS WILL RELAX
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS).
   C. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH UKMET TO THE
LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS FAVORING A RECEDING STR.//
NNNN

空中急流 发表于 2011-7-26 13:56

#5(remarks)

要点:
252100Z定位在15.0N,124.0E附近。热带低压10W位于菲律宾马尼拉以东大约200海里的海面上,过去六小时内向西北偏西方向以11节的速度移动。动态红外卫星图像(MSI)显示10W仍努力与北半圆的强烈下沉气流影响对抗以增强。动态水汽图像揭示了向极流出的抑制的严重程度。赤向流出依然很好地建立着,然而,在系统上空的纯粹的垂直风切变保持在大约15节。两张连续的ASCAT过去图像(250151Z和251256Z)揭示了相对于前些天的一些发展。两者都显示在北半圆上有20-30节风力的宽广区域。一张251143Z的SSMIS图像也明显地显示低层带的更佳的组织。91千兆赫的图像显示深层对流只限在南半圆和东北风切与在北半圆上下沉气流的综合影响。当前强度30节是由PGTW、ASCAT图像和几份来自萨马岛与吕宋岛沿海站点的表面报告基于德沃夏克分析法得出。几个站点正显示西风上升和气压下降,由此推断系统强度为1000毫巴和30节。数值指导稳定且在关于一个穿过吕宋北部而不是通过吕宋海峡的路径上更加一致。联合台风警报中心带来更赤向的预报路径且路径保持在数值共识以北。路径调整导致了在穿过吕宋(18-30小时)时较大的系统性能降级、一条在中国南海更长的轨道和在香港较大的空隙。因为数值知道没有负责与实际陆地相互作用,强度预报也被调整到在72小时左右达到一个巅峰。因为要穿过吕宋岛,热带低压10W将明显减弱,一旦进入中国南海,其将会花些时间重新恢复强度。在拓展范围内,增强的风切和与陆地的相互作用的影响将会减弱风暴直至其登陆。下次警报将在260300Z、260900Z、 261500Z和262100Z发出。参考热带低压11W六小时更新一次的警报 (WTPN32 PGTW)。//
NNNN
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 124.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS 10W IS STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY
AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE SEVERE DEGREE
OF SUPPRESSION ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER, AND NET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
REMAINS AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. TWO CONSECUTIVE PARTIAL ASCAT
PASSES (250151Z AND 251256Z) DO REVEAL SOME DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO
THE PREVIOUS DAY. BOTH SHOW BROAD FIELDS OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 251143Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERNSEMICIRCLE, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, THE
ASCAT IMAGERY, AND SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS FROM COASTAL STATIONS IN
COASTAL SAMAR AND LUZON. SEVERAL STATIONS ARE SHOWING RISING
WESTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES THAT EXTRAPOLATE TO A SYSTEM
INTENSITY OF 1000 MB AND 30 KNOTS. GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND IS
COMING INTO MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LUZON RATHER THAN THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. JTWC HAS BROUGHT THE
FORECAST TRACK EQUATORWARD, STAYING JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE
TRACK ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN GREATER SYSTEM DEGRADATION DURING THE
TRACK ACROSS LUZON (TAU 18 THROUGH 30), A LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND GREATER CLEARANCE ON HONG KONG. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU
72, AS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE LAND INTERACTION
EFFECTIVELY. TD 10W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
LUZON AND TAKE SOME TIME TO RE-GATHER STRENGTH ONCE IT ENTERS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED
SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE STORM BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W(ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-26 13:58

1.气象从业者专用
2.12小时总结与分析
A.热带风暴10W,目前在菲律宾首都马尼拉东南偏东方向150海里,在过去6小时内,以每小时9海里的速度向偏西方向移动。系统目前显著向西,有一个高压脊在吕宋岛东北方最近动画多光谱显示LLCC对流发展不错。252043Z SSMIS图像显示LLCC有着良好的组织,但更多的深对流依然在外围云团。热带风暴10W目前仍然在加紧北半圆的下沉效应。动画水汽图像显示,系统根本没有极向流出,但赤向流出依然不错。目前风切仍然维持在15KTS,并且252043Z 37 GHZ微波扫面显示底层环流有着更扎实的组织。但91赫兹图像显示更多的深对流在与陆地互相接触。早上ASCAT图像显示在LLCC周围100海里有25——30Kts的风力。吕宋的海岸探测到更大的风力和更小的气压。目前强度是基于PGTW的德法分析出的30Kts的强度。
B.菲律宾目前有着不错的海温并且有着不错的赤向流出能补偿被抑制的极向流出。在登录前,由于上述条件,将发展成STS。副高的脊线目前在小笠原群岛的当中,正在东退。这将影响第十号热带风暴,当10W位于吕宋中部时,引导气流将会改为副高的脊线。登陆吕宋岛18小时左右,由于地形的摩擦,系统将减弱。并需要一段时间重新加强。当到南海北部时,他将稳定加强。当风暴离开吕宋的时候,由于中国东部的副高单体,可能将影响其向西运动。由于南海北部良好的海温将继续加强。
C.当风暴10W靠近南海沿岸的时候,将登陆海南岛北部。当它移动到北部湾的时候,由于海温不高,地形的摩擦和东风的作用将大大减弱系统的强度。JTWC将保持良好的共识。

WDPN31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W// WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT BENDSOUTH OF THE EXPECTED TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A STRONGUPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LUZON. SURFACE REPORTS FROMTHE CATANDUANES RADAR SITE CONFIRM THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONCENTER PASSED NORTH OF THE SITE. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRALSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION IN CONVECTION AROUNDTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252043Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWSCLEAR ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LLCC, BUT THE MAJORITY OF DEEPCONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION ON THE PERIPHERY OFTHE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AGAINST THEEFFECTS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATEDWATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE SEVERE DEGREE OF SUPPRESSION TOPOLEWARD OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED,HOWEVER, AND NET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS ATAPPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. A 252043Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE CONFIRMSSIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL BANDING, BUT THE91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ISASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION. EARLIER ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMEDBROAD SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING OVER 100 NM AWAY FROM THELLCC. SURFACE REPORTS FROM COASTAL STATIONS IN COASTAL SAMAR ANDLUZON SHOW OFF-SHORE WINDS RISING AND PRESSURES FALLING. THE CURRENTINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNESAND PGTW.      B. THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND EXCELLENTEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE SUPPRESSED POLEWARDOUTFLOW AND HELP THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTHBEFORE LANDFALL. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THEBONIN ISLANDS, IS RETROGRADING SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TOINFLUENCE THE COURSE OF TS 10W TO A GREATER EXTENT. THE STEERINGFORCE WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM ASHORE OVER CENTRAL LUZON NEAR TAU 18.TS 10W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS LUZON AND TAKESOME TIME TO RE-GATHER STRENGTH ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND IS COMING INTO MUCH STRONGERAGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING ATRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND AN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEASOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LINGAYEN GULF. ALTHOUGHSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REPRESENT THE BIGGEST HAZARD TO SUBIC BAY, THEDEGRADED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO RESULT IN A SEVEREWIND EVENT. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LUZON, THE SEASONALANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL BEGIN STEERING THE SYSTEM ON AMORE WESTWARD COURSE, AS WELL AS BRING INCREASED SHEAR TO THEEQUATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEAWILL SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION BUT THE INCREASED SHEAR WILL KEEPTHE DEVELOPMENT SLOW AND MILD.      C. TS 10W WILL STAY SEAWARD OF THE CHINESE COAST, TRACKINGOVER NORTHERN HAINAN OR THE LUICHOW PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THEGULF OF TONKIN. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGHTHROUGHOUT THE TRACK, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFTAND LAND INTERACTION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVELS WILL COUPLE TO SLOWLYWEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTOGOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS WITHCONSENSUS.// NNNN

自愚自乐 发表于 2011-7-26 17:46

#07

世界时26日9时,定位北纬14.2度,东经123.0度

热带风暴(TS)10W洛坦现位于马尼拉东南137海里处,在过去6小时内以5kts的速度向西移动。动态多光谱图像显示,即使系统逐渐接近吕宋南部,系统中心对流深度仍维持。基于上述图像和附近观测站监测,气旋当前定位的准确度良好。上述监测以及PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD等机构通过德沃夏克法分析得到洛坦现有强度30~40knots。上层分析显示风暴刚好在一槽西南侧,使得系统东北侧受到抑制。而一脊正增强气旋赤道向流出。上述动态由卫星水汽动态图像证实。垂直风切轻微到适中(10~20KTS)。10W正在并将持续沿位于日本以东的副高脊南缘移动,直至在黎牙实比市附近登陆。之后将会横过地形起伏的菲律宾北部,于24小时后进入南海。气旋进入南海后由于适宜的环境和弱风切,将再次加强。预计72小时后在海南二次登陆。

在此预报周期结束前,洛坦还会在“东京(TONKIN)”湾(菲律宾东部)短暂加强。现有数值模式高度一致,只有NOGAPS例外。此模式下冷涡偏向西北,气旋移速较慢且偏南。

后续警告将于世界时26日15时、21时,27日3时、9时发出。10W报文将每6小时更新一次。


REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 123.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH AROUND ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION
EVEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SAME
OBSERVATIONS AND BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH THAT IS HAVING A
SUBSIDENT EFFECT OVER THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE
DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KTS). TS 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LEGASPI CITY, THEN DRAGS
OVER ROUGH TERRAIN JUST NORTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY
OVER WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE VWS BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL - THIS TIME OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT IS ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

rifleman175 发表于 2011-7-26 23:27

#8 预报理由翻译

1.气象从业者专用
2.过去12小时概述与分析
A.热带风暴(TS)10W(洛坦)现在位于菲律宾马尼拉以东约110海里的洋面上,过去6小时内以5节(knots)的时速向西北偏西方向移动。根据动态红外云图来看,虽然洛坦的中心擦过了吕宋岛南部几个省份,但是其中心对流的深度依旧不减。洛坦目前的定位是由上述的动态图,以及系统周边几个观测站数据(包括北卡马利纳Daet站)根据三角测量法得出的。而系统目前的强度估测也受几个上述几个测站的数据,以及PGTW、KNES和RJTD的德法估算出的30至40 knots评价支持。高空分析也显示系统目前位于TUTT西南大约5个纬度的地方,极向流出通道开始打开。与此同时,位于洛坦西南方接近赤道的一个槽也正在加强洛坦的赤向流出。上述的动力影响在水汽动画图上可以看得一清二楚。洛坦附近的垂直风切变也已经下降到5至10 knots,现在正沿日本深层副高的南缘前行。

B.预计热带风暴“洛坦”会延续着之前的路径,直到其登录菲律宾黎牙实比市。在此之后,洛坦将会经过马尼拉以北的山地,并在24预报时前进入南海。一旦进入南海,洛坦会在暖水和低垂直风切变的影响下缓缓增强,直至其在72预报时之前接近海南岛。

C.热带风暴“洛坦”在72预报时后会二次登陆,地点锁定为海南岛。到了96预报时,洛坦会以热带低压的强度进入北部湾,并短暂增强。随后洛坦会第三次,也是最后一次登陆,这次地点在越南河内以南。目前除了NOGAPS之外,其他各数值预报路径一致性非常高。NOGAPS在48预报时之后有错误地将气旋路径调向西北的趋势。此次JTWC预报路径比数值共识路径稍慢,方向上也偏南。//
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WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)//
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
110 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH AROUND ITS CENTRAL
CONVECTION EVEN AS IT BRUSHED THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF LUZON. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND TRIANGULATED
FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING ONE FROM DAET, CAMARINES NORTE,
JUST 23 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
SAME OBSERVATIONS AND BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
STORM IS NOW JUST OVER FIVE DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL THAT HAS BEGUN TO PROVIDE A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS ALSO ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE DYNAMICS ARE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) VALUES HAVE SLOWED TO 05-10 KNOTS. TS 10W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK
AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LEGASPI CITY, THEN DRAGS OVER ROUGH
TERRAIN JUST NORTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA BEFORE TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY OVER WARM
WATERS AND LIGHT VWS UNTIL IT APPROACHES HAINAN BEFORE TAU 72.
       C. TS NOCK-TEN WILL MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL - THIS TIME
OVER HAINAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. IT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT EMERGES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN BY TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF BEFORE MAKING A
THIRD AND FINAL LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS THAT IS ERRONEOUSLY DEFLECTING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 48. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS.//
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