lan0609 发表于 2011-7-29 21:35

11W #10(概述)
概述:
热带低压(TD 11W)28日05点的位置接近北纬12.8度,东经138度。也就是位于关岛安德森空军基地以西约375海里。过去6小时其以每小时14节的速度向西北移动。
多光谱卫星动画显示了一个因对流朝西南切离而裸奔的低层环流中心(LLCC)。一份28号0:38分的AMSU-B 89Ghz微波卫星图像亦表明清晰的LLCC以及西南零碎的对流云带。其当前定位基于上述卫星云图,定位可信度良好。当前强度则基于PGTW、KNES以及RJTD根据德沃夏克分析法得出的25到30节的强度。
高层分析表明,热带低压11W位于一个高层气旋以南的中等垂直风切变(VWS)区(20到30节)。水汽图像动画显示下沉气流位于11W的东北方,使得其对流(爆发)被抑制。该系统的路径预料在接下来24到36小时转向西北。在36小时(TAU)后,其北侧副热带高压(STR)预期将由于堪察加深槽向西南延伸以及一个中纬低压而将减弱并东退。热带低压11W的路径接下来将北转,直至72小时后,一个在其东侧增强的脊线将开始推进11W向西移动。
而由于该系统北侧有一个反气旋、减弱的风切以及流出的增加,该系统预料在未来将逐步增强。在96小时后,由于各大数值预报的不确定性颇高,数值预报不一致的地方在于强度和东侧副高增强的位置(?)。日本地区应严密监测热带低压11W在120小时后西行路径的变化。
数值预报很不一致,然而本次预测已接近各大数值预报的综合路径。28日凌晨2点最大的有效波高为13英尺。下次的警报将在28日的11点、17点、23点与29日5点发出。而热带风暴洛坦的警报将每6小时发布1次。//NNNN

#10(remarks)
REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 138.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 27/1638Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A FRAGMENTED BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN A REGION OF MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 11W, WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT WESTWARD AS A RETROGRADING MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. TD 11W WILL THEN TAKE A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE A STRONG STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND BEGINS TO NUDGE 11W TO THE WEST. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, VWS DECREASES, AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. AFTER TAU 96, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE STR BUILDING TO THE EAST. LOCATIONS IN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST CHANGES AFTER TAU 120 AS TD 11W POTENTIALLY TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN

冬腌菜 发表于 2011-7-30 00:57

1。给从事气象专业的人员。
2。 12小时总结和分析。
A.热带风暴(TS)11W(11)位于关岛安德森空军基地西南偏南约455海里的海面,在过去六小时内以15节的速度向西北方向移动。多频微波动画(MSI)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)随着改进高层流出的改善,深层对流逐渐增加。27/2033Z时的91 GHZ SSMIS扫描显示对流增强且深层对流卷入LLCC西南象限。这个云图也显示了LLCC南部大量的对流云带的形成。根据MSI及推断的初始位置可信度较低。 初始强度是基于PGTW,KNES的DVORAK分析法得出的,RJTD介乎30至35节。高层分析显示TS 11W位于高空反气旋南部的中度(20-25节)垂直风切变(VWS)区。水汽云图动画显示出良好的赤道方向流出和改善向极地方向流出。
3。预测依据。
A.预报原因没有改变。
B. TS 11W目前沿着其东部向西延伸的中低层面赤道反气旋和北部的副热带高压脊(STR)行进。该系统预计在未来24至36小时内,继续向西北偏西方向移动。在未来48小时内,北方的强大的副热带高压脊(STR)有望慢慢地向西减弱西退。本次西退是由于堪察加半岛西南部北缩的中纬度槽与一系列沿STR北缘移动较弱的中纬度槽合并所导致的。
C. 在STR西退的72小时内,TS 11W将继续向北移动,直到东侧强大的STR的建立,并使11W开始向西转向。由于VWS的减弱和流出增强,因此预计系统将会逐渐增强。由于拥有良好的环境条件,TS 11W的强度有可能在120小时内继续增强。数值预报的一致性仍然较差,本次预报的路径比集合预报稍微偏东,比稍前的JTWC预报偏西。

#11(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 11// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 27/2033Z 91 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LARGE FORMATIVE BAND OF CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED MICROWAVE DATA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 11W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETREAT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WESTWARD RETREAT IS THE RESULT OF A RETROGRADING MID- LATITUDE LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MERGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER MID-LATITUDE LOWS RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
C. AS THE STR RETREATS WESTWARD, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72 UNTIL A STRONG STR TO THE EAST BUILDS AND BEGINS TO TURN 11W TO THE WEST. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. TS 11W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 120 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN

lan0609 发表于 2011-7-30 01:12

#12:
28日09时(UTC)位置为12.0N 134.7E。
热带风暴梅花(11W),集结在关岛安德鲁斯空军基地以西约590海哩,
在过去6小时,向西微南移动。
多光谱卫星影像动画显示,系统的环流扩大,中心对流云顶加深。
现时的定位及强度根据PGTW 及 RJTD的德法分析所订出。

高层分析显示11w位於一反气旋以南,令西北象限有下沉气流。
但位於系统以南的脊糟带来极佳的赤道流出。
此现像可从水气动画清楚地见到。
11w正在中等垂直风切变的环境中(15-20kts),
正沿位於九州东南的中低层副热带高压脊的南沿移动。
由於副高开始东退,12小时内系统将转向偏北方向移动。
这样,将抵消反气旋带来的下沉气流及令风切减弱,令11w稳定地増强。

36小时後,位於系统以东的近赤道脊将令系统向略为偏东的方向移动。
当系统北移,四周环境仍有利於它增强。
96小时後,系统将增强至台风中限,然後它将向北移动。

各数值模型预报的路经不太一致,约有20度角的偏差。
WBAR预计96小时前先向西移才转向。
本报比数值预报平均值偏西,因现时系统仍向西移。

后续警报将于UTC28日15时丶21时,29日3时丶9时发出。   
有关洛坦(10w)的消息,请参阅6小时更新一次的预报。


REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 134.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AS CONVECTIVE TOPS DEEPENED. INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THESE DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TS 11W, CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU,
JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE AND WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS POLEWARD
MOTION WILL DIMINISH THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALSO REDUCE THE VWS, FAVORING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND TUG THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF POLEWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TYPHOON BY TAU 96 WHEN A BUILDING STR EAST
OF HONSHU JAPAN ASSUMES STEERING AND PUSHES 11W LEFT OF POLEWARD.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT AND FANS OUT
TO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD. ALL, HOWEVER, DEPICT AN S-SHAPE TRACK PATTERN
MOLDED BY THE THREE STEERING INFLUENCES DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS
ONE EXCEPTION: WBAR MAINTAINS A PROLONGED WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD AT TAU 96. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AT THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD STORM MOTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

冬腌菜 发表于 2011-7-31 00:31

#13(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 13// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 281106Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. HOWEVER, A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 11W, CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU, JAPAN. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE AND CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. AS TS 11W GAINS LATITUDE, THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH. ADDITIONALLY, THE VWS WILL WEAKEN. BOTH DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND TUG THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
C. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TYPHOON BY TAU 96 WHEN A BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN, ASSUMES STEERING AND PUSHES IT LEFT OF POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT AND FANS OUT TO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD. MOST, HOWEVER, DEPICT AN S-SHAPE TRACK PATTERN MOLDED BY THE THREE STEERING INFLUENCES DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION: WBAR MAINTAINS A PROLONGED WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS AT THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PERSISTENT BIAS ON THE WESTWARD STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 36, IT IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF ONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR\'S PULL.// NNNN

老干部 发表于 2011-7-31 12:12

预留

冬腌菜 发表于 2011-7-31 13:21

第15报:
1.气象从业者作用
2.热带风暴梅花(11W)现在位置在嘉手纳基地东南偏南大约890海里的海面上。在过去6小时内,以每小时5海里的速度向西北方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示对流集中在LLCC的西部和南部。A 28/2021Z 37 GHZ微波扫描显示LLCC裸露,A 91 GHZ的图像显示对流正组织在LLCC的西部和南部。A 28/0012Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ显示在LLCC的西部和南部有旋臂发展。目前的定位是基于上述的图像,而强度是基于PGTW,RJTD,KNES的德法所分析出的50——55海里/每小时。由于一个反气旋,所以在风暴南侧有中度的垂直风切变(20——30Kts)。最新的水汽云图显示系统的东北象限流出正在改善之中。在过去几小时内,副高由于东日本槽的西进而东退。目前的11W正沿着东向西延伸的赤反。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由没有显著变化
B.由于现在11W正经历着复杂的大气环流,并且在5天内将涉及到很多系统,所以在未来的影响时间和程度均有很大的不确定性。在未来12——36小时内,由于西风的作用,副高将减弱东退,届时11W将缓慢向北移动。由于副高脊的东北移,导致11W将沿着其西脊向北移动。当11W纬度增加,风切将变小,海温仍然居高不下,而且还会有良好的流出,所以会增强。
C.48小时后,11W将受到副高的影响,将先东北移动正当一个深槽在日本头上建立。
96小时后,由于两脊合并,11W将增强至台风并且开始有西分量。120小时后,由于副高重新西伸,11W将接近日本。目前数值预报们都有很大分歧。WBAR EGRR是目前最偏北的路径但接近其他的数值。在120小时后,可能有300海里的误差和副高强度预测上的误差。
副高将在11W的东或东北方。这种路径是接近于先前预计。

WDPN32 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 15// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NMSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ON THEWESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). A 28/2021Z 37 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS A MORE DISCERNABLE LLCC, AND A91 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME TIME SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVEORGANIZATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. A 28/0012ZAMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES CURVED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERNAND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THEABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAKINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 55KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST SOUTH OF AWEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLYRADIAL OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TS 11W HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEGUN RETREATINGWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. 11WIS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIALSTEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.   3. FORECAST REASONING.    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.   
B. TS 11W WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN INVOLVINGMANY COMPONENTS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALL EXHIBITINGUNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DEGREE OF INFLUENCE. AS TS 11W RESPONDS TOTHE WESTERLY RETREAT OF THE STR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS,STEERING WILL BECOME WEAK, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACKSLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EASTWILL BUILD NORTHWARD, AND TS 11W WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERNPERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AS 11W GAINS LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) WILL RELAX, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH, ANDUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANINCREASE IN INTENSITY.   
C. AFTER TAU 48, 11W WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY A BUILDINGSTR TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING OVERJAPAN. 11W WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO TYPHOON INTENSITY AND BEGIN AMORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 96 AS THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGESMERGE AND BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 120THIS STR WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON 11W AND NUDGE THE SYSTEMWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS INPOOR AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AS OF THE LATEST RUNS.MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH RESOLVING THE TIMING ON EACHOF THE STEERING MECHANISMS. WBAR AND EGRR ARE NOW FAVORING A MORENORTHERLY TRACK AND ARE CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTION. BY TAU 120GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OVER 300 NM AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THETIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-7-31 17:05

#16(remarks)
REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 133.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH. THE INITIAL POSTION IS BASED ON A 290422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WARM SEMI-CIRCLE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP OUTLINES IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT INDICATING SUBSIDENCE. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, VWS WILL RELAX, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH, AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN WILL NUDGE TS 11W LEFT OF TRACK. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREE SPREAD, ALL FAVORING THE S-SHAPED TRACK DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO BE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND MAINTAINS A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR\'S UNREALISTIC PULL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN

donald240956 发表于 2011-7-31 22:37

第17报:

1、气象从业者专用
2、12小时概况及分析
A. 热带风暴11W(梅花),当前大致位于冲绳嘉守纳空港东南偏南815海里处,在过去6小时内以6海里/小时的速度向偏北方向移动。红外卫星云图动画显示,系统的中央密闭云区的范围随着悬臂变得明显而有所缩小。初始位置由世界时10时54分,SIMSS卫星提供的微波扫描中的半圆特征。初始强度被PGTW和KNES提供的德法估测支持。高层分析表示,系统当前位于一个弱的高层反气旋南侧,因此当前位置的垂直风切变中等(25-30海里/小时)。最近的水汽云图表明,系统的东北象限存在明显的湿区界线,表示该处存在下沉气流。同时,系统东南侧的一条脊线正在增强向赤道的流出。热带风暴11W正在沿近赤道脊的西沿出现了向东分量。
3、预报理由
A. 和之前的理由没有区别
B. 热带风暴11W将继续沿着近赤道脊的西侧向北运动。在36小时之后,由于移动到脊线的西北侧,会稍稍向右转向。在此过程中,由于反气旋的下沉作用会有所减弱,垂直风切变强度会减小。高层流出也将维持良好,前方的海温持续保持温暖,因此持续的增强几乎是确定的。
C. 在72小时之后,在日本本州东方的副热带高压脊将会将热带风暴11W的路径向左微调。由于当时的环境仍然适宜系统的发展,该系统将会在预报时段末期发展为一个中度台风。现有的数值模式大致对路径给出了一个30度的扇形,都给出了一个S型的路径。然而,这个路径的分布表明了西转的时间和转向角度的极度不确定,这将会取决于本州东部的副高的强度。EC倾向于一个十分强大的副高和系统较早并且出现更大的转向角;而GFDN,倾向于一个较弱的副高,因此转向较早,并且角度偏小。我们的路径预测在模型平均值略东,大体上落在预测范围的中间。

#17(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 17// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRIM DOWN ITS COLD DENSE OVERCAST AS FORMATIVE BANDING BECOMES MORE APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 291054Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WARM SEMI-CIRCLE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP OUTLINE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT INDICATING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE NER. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, VWS WILL RELAX AS THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL DIMINISH. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN VIGOROUS AND WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERENIALLY WARM IN THESE WATERS, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN WILL NUDGE TS 11W LEFT OF TRACK. AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TYPHOON TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES, ALL FAVORING THE S-SHAPED TRACK DESCRIBED ABOVE. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND HOW SHARP THE WESTWARD TURN WILL BE. THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU. ECMWF FAVORS A VERY STRONG STR AND THUS DEPICT AN EARLIER AND SHARPER TURN. GFDN, ON THE OTHER HAND, FAVORS A WEAKER STR AND THUS DEPICT A LATER AND LESS PRONOUNCED WESTWARD MOTION. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, LEANING TOWARDS A MIDDLE-OF-THE-PACK SOLUTION.// NNNN

冬腌菜 发表于 2011-8-1 00:07

#18(remarks)
REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 133.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291636Z AMSRE PASS SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING A MICROWAVE EYE, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION OVERALL SECTORS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM HAS EASED, AND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, THE BEGINNINGS OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL ARE EVIDENT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL- ESTABLISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED IN A POLEWARD PATTERN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N 150E. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS A VAST WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE DATELINE. THE POLEWARD TRACK AND THE EXTENSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AFTER TAU 48, BUT WHERE AND TO WHAT DEGREE THAT TURN OCCURS IS A MATTER OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE DISPARITY IS BOTH SUBSTANTIAL AND IMPACTIVE. ECMWF AND EGRR STEER THE STORM WESTWARD SOONER, RESULTING IN A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. MEANWHILE, GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR GUIDE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH A RESULTANT TRACK THAT GOES WELL NORTH OF OKINAWA. JGSM AND CONSENSUS ARE IN THE MIDDLE. THE INTENSITY TREND WILL BE A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT THE STORM CAN MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD AND COCOON ITSELF FROM THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR. GFDN IS INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NEAR- CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. BASED ON THE RAPID ORGANIZATION AND PRONOUNCED COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SHOWN ON RECENT INFRARED ANIMATION, THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE, CLOSE TO GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN

9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:21

#19(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS EXPANDING. A 292239Z TRMM PASS CONFIRMS GOOD ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING A MICROWAVE EYE, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION OVER ALL SECTORS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS EASED, AND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL IS EVIDENT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND 77 KNOTS FROM KNES. TS MUIFA IS BEING STEERED IN A POLEWARD PATTERN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N 150E. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS A RESULT OF A WIDE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE DATELINE. THE POLEWARD TRACK AND THE EXTENSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WERE RESULTING IN GREATER THAN NORMAL DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ALIGNED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO GIVE MORE INFLUENCE TO THE ECMWF TRACKER.
B. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AFTER TAU 48 AND IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. IF ONE DISMISSES THE EXTREME EASTERN OUTLIERS, GFDN AND WBAR, GUIDANCE IS QUALITATIVELY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST (TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE) BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 48, THEN A BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THE RESUMPTION OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS A FUNCTION OF THE BONIN HIGH RETROGRADING TO ITS SEASONAL POSITION. AS IT DOES SO, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE STEERING FORCE. ALONG THE NORTHWARD LEG, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ONLY MILDLY, AND THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY. OUTFLOW MAY AT TIMES BECOME SUPPRESSED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), MAKING FOR SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CURRENT POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN UNTIL TAU 48, THEN BEGINS AN ARC TOWARDS THE WESTERLY LEG AFTER TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGES, TS 11W WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE RETROGRADING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND GRADUALLY BECOME A STRAIGHT- RUNNER WEST OF THE RYUKUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 96. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OR DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM INCREASE AT A SLOW AND STEADY RATE. A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THUS STORM INTENSITY, WILL BE AVAILABLE ONCE THE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO ITS WESTWARD LEG.// NNNN
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