9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:21

#20(remarks)
REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 133.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT DEVELOPED A 6NM EYE AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THAT SIDE. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BUILD IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). AROUND TAU 96 OHC WILL DROP OFF AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH ECMWF, UKMO AND NOGAPS. GFDN AND GFS ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN

9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:21

#19 离奇失踪了。。。

#21 301500z

1. 供气想从业者用
2. 12小时总结和分析
A. 台风11W(梅花),目前大致位于日本冲绳嘉守纳空港东南偏南650海里处,在最近6小时内以每小时4海里的速度向西北方向移动,并且在过去的12小时内迅速增强。红外云图动画显示一个直径10海里的风眼和向西南伸展至菲律宾南部的广阔对流云系。初始强度基于PGTW和KNES提供的115海里/小时的德法分析。水汽云图显示极好的向赤道以及西北象限(向洋中大槽)的流出,然而向东北方向的流出受限于高空的槽线。
3. 预报理由
A. 鉴于在过去12小时内,系统因强烈的向西北方向的洋中槽流出而快速发展,强度预测比之前高。同时,由于系统比预报的偏向西北运动,路径预测比之前有所西调。
B. 台风11W目前处在一个引导场微弱的环境,即便占优势地位的底层副高脊线位于其东南侧。预期在将来的12小时内,由于东南侧的副高增强,系统将会向北移动。正在减慢的运动速度也是即将转向的标志。在高层环流合适以及高洋面温度的优越环境下,预期台风11W将在48小时内继续增强。在48小时之后,在一中纬度高空槽通过后,副热带高压将会建立,从而引导系统向西北方向运动。
C. 直到预测期结束,台风11W将继续向嘉守纳空港运动。那时洋温将快速下降,并且导致系统强度有所降低。数值模式在48小时转向西北方向后的路径存在分歧;我们的预报跟随ECMWF、UKMO、JGSM和NOGAPS,倾向于更剧烈的转向,而GFDN和GFS的预测是最靠东的。
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 10 NM EYE
WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN TO SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THAT
SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE
TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO
IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM TURNED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS WALKED WESTWARD SLIGHTLY.
   B. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. THE SLOWING
TRANSLATION SPEED IS ALSO AN INDICATOR OF THE TURN. TY 11W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BUILD IN AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
   C. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KADENA AIR BASE. AT THIS TIME
OHC WILL DROP OFF AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SHARPER TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH ECMWF, UKMO, JGSM, AND NOGAPS. GFDN AND
GFS ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS.//
NNNN

9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:21

第22报预报要点翻译:

UTC30日21时,也就是北京时间31日早上5点,超级台风梅花的中心位于北纬16.8度,东经132.4度,也就是日本冲绳岛嘉手纳空军基地南-东南约640海里的海面上,在过去6小时以每小时4kt的速度向西北方向移动。

梅花的第一轮爆发已接近尾声,而这一轮加强过程共持续了12小时。色调强化云图动画显示,系统有无可挑剔的组织、漂亮对称的云系、紧密镶嵌在CDO中的针眼。UTC30日17时18分的AMSRE扫描云图也给我们展示出这个超强台风的爆发成果及眼墙的对称之美;云图还显示,系统并无潜在的外眼墙形成,没有眼壁置换,这也给梅花集中能量、进行超乎气候平均值许多的爆发创造了条件。

目前,梅花眼区的温度已经转正,显示其有一强烈的暖心,而这也是热带气旋强盛的标志。RJTD和KNES根据德沃夏克分析法得出系统T值为7.0,有140kt的强度;而RJTD的另一分析表明系统T值为6.0,强度为90kt。梅花从UTC30日0时到现在的个性爆发,主要得益于在原本就不错之赤向流出基础上的双通道流出。昨天以前,本来有一TUTT在系统北侧制造下沉气流阻碍流出;然而在昨天,这个TUTT减弱,阻碍减小,随后30日00z左右系统东北方向又有一TUTT为其打开流出通道的大门,系统高层气流从该处向东北,随后朝西南流出。就这样双通道建立,且流出点就在梅花头顶正中,所有象限的流出都畅通无阻。而梅花周围的垂直风切变也非常微弱,基本上小于5kts。在这些因素的作用下,梅花的爆发是顺利成章的。

另一方面,东海冷涡继续向西移动,已接近台湾并横在梅花前进方向西方。未来它将阻碍梅花的流出,使得梅花接下来的加强速度减慢。梅花所处的引导环境十分微弱,虽然东海副高还维持,但强度孱弱且离梅花很远;而小笠原群岛附近的太平洋副高主体已崩解东缩到日界线附近。因此梅花的主要引导力量是其东南方向的赤道反气旋,这个力量也非常微弱。因此,在上述引导力量的作用下,梅花在未来42小时主要走北偏东方向,移动速度会非常缓慢。而那时太平洋副高又会从北纬20度附近重新加强西伸,接近梅花并使其西折。经各数值运算,梅花很有可能经过冲绳岛附近。

强度方面,梅花将在西折前继续缓慢加强,西折后缓慢减弱。减弱的原因无外乎海水热含量降低和风切变大两个方面,其中海水热含量降低作用更大:因为东海虽然水温很高,但是暖水层厚度在北纬20度以北要缩减一半,超台经过时海水会翻滚,暖水层厚度不够则容易导致冷水上涌。而风切则始终不会太大,在预报期间始终保持在20kt以内。

JTWC72小时内的预报参考各大数值的共识,事实上它们对梅花72小时内的走向也达成了较好的一致。但72小时后,路径分歧显现,欧中认为西折角度较大,梅花从冲绳南部经过;而GFS等则认为系统偏北角度更大。这样一来,数值共识的路径就比较偏北了。鉴于GFS等数值在梅花预报上的糟糕表现,我们不采用数值共识的路径,将预报路径定的稍偏南一些,更接近欧中数值。

关于系统72小时后的强度,各大数值也有分歧。动态模式认为系统将维持超级台风强度,而统计基础的动态模式则认为系统已经达到巅峰,将会步入减弱通道。鉴于系统目前的强度状态,我们在短期预报中舍弃后者的计算,而在中期、长期预报中,考虑到东海的暖水层厚度等方面因素,对其予以采信。
   REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.4E.
RMKS/SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA IS APPROACHING THE
END OF A 12 HOUR EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPECCABLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
BEAUTIFUL SYMMETRY AND A TIGHT PINHOLE 11 NM EYE. A 301718Z AMSRE
IMAGE PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY
IN THE EYEWALL. IT ALSO SHOWS NO SIGN OF A SECONDARY, OUTER EYEWALL
FORMING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BRAKING MECHANISM TO THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO POSITIVE
TERRITORY, RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD AND KNES AND 6.0 (90) KNOTS FROM RJTD. THE SPECTACULAR
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 300000Z AND NOW WAS FACILITATED BY THE
PILING ON OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO AN ALREADY WELL-DEVELOPED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT SINCE THE GENITIVE
STAGES. UNTIL YESTERDAY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAD BEEN IMPEDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT YESTERDAY, IMPINGEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EASED. THEN
NEAR 300000Z, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL OPENED UP
WHILE ANOTHER CHANNEL DEVELOPED TO THE EAST, INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE TUTT. SSTY 11W NOW HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXCELLENT EXHAUST IN ALL
QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TUTT
CELL HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR TAIWAN AND OPENING ON
THE STORM, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
BRING A RETURN TO A SLOWER, MORE STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. STY
11W IS ON A POLEWARD TRACK IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN
DISPLACED ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE. A WEAK PUSH IS BEING PROVIDED
ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BY AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS STY 11W CLEARS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT ALONG A NET NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE), THE
RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO
BECOME THESTEERING FORCE, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE ZEROS IN ON A
TRACK CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW
AND STEADY UP TO THE POINT OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW
DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE DECLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FUNCTION OF
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER
CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH TAU 72, AS THEY ARE IN
NEAR EXACT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE TWO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF
VORTEX TRACKER STEERING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS
STRIKES THE NORTHERN TIP OF OKINAWA. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED
POLEWARD BY GFDN AND GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT
HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72
WILL BE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL, ANY SCENARIO
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OKINAWA. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY
IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY
SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS (PARTICULARLY STIPS 11)
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS
GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE
INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-
INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z
AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:23

#23 世界时31日03时

1. 供气象专业者用
2. 12小时总结和分析
A. 超级台风11W(梅花),目前大致位于日本冲绳嘉守纳空港东南偏南方向650海里处,在过去的6小时内以每小时3海里的速度向西北方向移动。超级台风梅花在过去的6小时内稍有减弱。红外云图动画显示,云顶温度上升,并且东北象限的对流减弱。对流减弱主要是因为提供极向流出的洋中槽远离系统,导致该通道关闭;以及东北象限存在轻度的下沉气流。水汽云图动画显示位于本州上空的西风急流形成了一个高空槽,该槽正在影响系统的东北象限。即便如此,超级台风11W仍然维持其超台的等级,与此同时,多频扫描显示,系统有一个直径为10海里的针眼,结构十分致密,并且四个象限都存在强烈的对流。虽然2118z的SSMIS扫描验证了东北象限深层对流的衰弱,但是还确认了完整并且深厚的眼墙的存在。多频微波扫描还显示了系统似乎开始在南侧半圆构建外围眼墙,但是这是第一张提示这个过程的图象,并且尚未出现眼壁置换的信号。当前的强度基于PGTW和KNES给出的140海里/小时以及RJTD给出的95海里/小时。超级台风11W拥有单个流出点位于底层环流中心上空,同时系统中心上空的垂直风切变不多于5海里/小时。水汽云图显示,向赤道和系统东方的流出仍然维持强烈。超级台风11W最近并未受到近赤道高压的引导,目前在十分微弱的引导环境中缓慢的向北移动。系统的高强度和缓慢的移动正在影响广阔海域(?),较弱的引导环境是位于中国东部和小笠原群岛上空较弱的副热带高压的结果,小笠原上空的高压异乎寻常的偏东,已经达到日界线。
3. A. 预报思路和之前没有区别
   B. 预期在42小时内,超级台风11W将会继续缓慢向北运动,同时运动将相当不规则。在此之后(当时系统将接近北纬20度),小笠原高压将会离系统足够接近,以至于将成为系统的主要引导力量,使系统向西移动。小笠原高压的缓慢后退将导致向西的转向过程较为平缓。由于超级台风梅花目前没有眼壁置换的迹象,并且垂直风切变相当微弱,我们倾向于在转向之前继续少有增强,并且在此后缓慢减弱。预期强度下降主要因为海洋的热容量的减少,而不是在预测时期范围内估计仍在20海里/小时以内的垂直风切变(即便有所增强)。虽然海面温度仍然较高,但是超过26摄氏度的水深的厚度,在北纬20度以上减少了超过一半。JTWC和数值集合以及ECMWF在72小时之内的预报基本相符。
   C. 在72小时后,各个数值模型有所分歧,但是仍然靠近。主要的模型预期系统将接近冲绳,最早预测西折的ECMWF,预测系统将会从冲绳南侧通过;而模型的平均值预测系统将经过冲绳本岛。但是平均值被GFDN和GFS拉向北侧,而两者已被证明它们没有很好的预测系统的走向,因此我们的预报在模型平均值之南。至于72小时之后强度预测,数值模式也分成两派,动态模式预期在过程中将保持超级台风强度,而基于统计的动态模式(包括STIPS11)认为系统已经通过其巅峰,并且开始减弱。鉴于11W目前的结构组织,不予采信STIPS的短期预测;对于中长期预报,其对于海水热容量和强度的对应关系被用作48小时之后强度减弱的基础。无论如何,数值预报并没有偏离下周一个猛烈台风将要袭击冲绳的主要场景。
//NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
DROP-OFF IN CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THE TUTT
CELL PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP TOO MUCH
DISTANCE ON THE STORM AND THE CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, AND TWO, THERE IS
SOME MILD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLIES DIVING OVER SOUTHERN
HONSHU. THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARE DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS,
STY 11W REMAINS A SUPER TYPHOON AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINHOLE EYE
AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN EVERY QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH A 302118Z SSMIS
PASS VERIFIES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, IT ALSO VERIFIES THE EXISTENCE OF A DEEP AND
CONTIGUOUS EYEWALL. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING WHAT MAY BE
THE VERY BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT THAT IS THE FIRST IMAGE THAT EVEN HINTS AT THAT
PROCESS, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGN OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT YET. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 95 KNOTS FROM RJTD.
SSTY 11W HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE EQUATORWARD AND EAST SIDE OF THE
STORM REMAIN VIGOROUS. STY 11W HAS RECENTLY CLEARED THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND IS NOW DRIFTING POLEWARD IN A VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGH INTENSITY AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM IS
GENERATING TREMENDOUS SEAS. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS AN
EFFECT OF A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN
HIGH. THE BONIN HIGH HAS BEEN DISPLACED UNUSUALLY FAR EASTWARD, ALL
THE WAY TO THE DATELINE.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. STY 11W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG A SLOW AND AT TIMES ERRATIC
TRACK THROUGH TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH
LATITUDE), THE RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BECOME THE STEERING FORCE AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. AS STY MUIFA IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ENTERING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS A NON-FACTOR, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLIGHT UPWARDS TREND UP TO THE POINT OF
THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE EXPECTED
DECLINE IS A FUNCTION OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM
DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH
TAU 72, WHICH ARE IN NEARLY EXACT AGREEMENT.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT IN THE AGGREGATE,
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN FOCUSES THE TRACK CLOSER TO OKINAWA. THE
ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER, WHICH WAS THE FIRST MODEL TO PICK UP THE
WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK, STEERS THE SYSTEM SOUTH BUT CLOSE TO
OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON THE NORTH END OF
THE ISLAND. CONSENSUS, HOWEVER, IS BEING PULLED POLEWARD BY GFDN AND
GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM
WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 IS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO BIPOLAR INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS (INCLUDING STIPS11) ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE
OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER
THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO
FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A
BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48.
REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE BIG PICTURE OF A
CLOSE STRIKE TO OKINAWA BY A SEVERE TYPHOON LATE NEXT WEEK.//
NNNN

这次难度微高啊……感谢干干的翻译给了很大帮助

9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:23

第24报
世界时31日09时,位置在17.4N 133.0E。
台风梅花,位于嘉手纳基地的南方约620海里。在过去6小时内,以每小时4海里的速度向东北方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示在系统东南部有5海里的针眼。红外云图显示针眼正在模糊混浊中。上层槽沉降在11W的北部。TUTT导致不错的流出,从系统的西北方向移动。
目前系统的极向流出和赤向流出依然不错。初始强度是基于RJTW和PGTW的德法分析出的115——130海里每小时。目前11W卡着其东南方向的赤反和中国东部的副高。在未来36小时,将沿极向运动。48小时后,副高将在其北部重建,11W将西北走向至冲绳岛。11W因为其不错的极向流出平衡将保持强度。此后系统由于在北建立的副高导致海洋热含量在系统北部导致其减弱。目前NOGAPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND WBAR数值预报较为紧凑,而GFS,GFDN最东,而WHILE EGRR是最偏西的。目前海浪高在世界时31日06时约为46英尺。下一次警告将在世界时311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z发布。
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 133.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 5NM PIN HOLE EYE WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE EYEWALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TY 11W. ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 130 KNOTS. TY
11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THIS WEAKNESS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 48, A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING TY 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BALANCED BY THE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD BECAUSE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP OFF AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE
CUT OFF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INCLUDING
NOGAPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND WBAR. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS
WHILE EGRR IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z
AND 010900Z.//
NNNN


9615 发表于 2011-8-1 03:23

#25

1. 供气向专业人员用
2. 12小时总结和分析
   A. 台风11W(梅花),目前位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空港东南方向610海里处,在过去6小时以每小时6海里的速度向东北方向运动。红外云图动画显示,系统有一个直径为5海里的针眼,并且南侧存在广阔的对流云带。然而,在过去的12小时的红外云图中,系统眼墙和北侧明显衰弱,表征系统显著减弱。台风11W北侧的一个西风槽引发下沉气流。与此同时,此前为系统提供西北方向流出通道的一个对流层上部槽正在远离系统。极向向东北方向和赤道向的流出仍然良好。初始强度基于PGTW和RJTD根据德法给出的115-130海里/小时确定。台风11W目前处于一个位于东南方向的脊线和中心在中国东部上空的一脊线之间,因此受到的引导场相当微弱。
3. A. 路径预报的思路和上一次并没有变化。但是,鉴于当前处于减弱趋势,预测强度将弱于上一次预报。
   B. 预期系统在36小时内,将在继续两条脊线之间,在微弱的引导下继续向北移动。在36小时后,预期系统北侧将建立一脊线,将使台风11W转向西北,向日本冲绳移动。由于台风11W拥有适宜的向北流出,预期系统在短期内维持其强度。随着系统继续向北移动,预期系统将通过热容量较低的海域,并且极向流出将会随着北侧的脊线建立而被压制,预期系统将会持续减弱。
   C. 在72小时内,预期台风11W将继续向西北方向移动,接近日本冲绳,强度缓慢减弱。这个预测和NOGAFS、JGSM、和ECMWF符合得很好。而GFS、GFDN位于预测集的最东侧,EGRR位于预测集的最西侧。


WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 5NM PIN HOLE EYE WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE
EYEWALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TY 11W. ADDITIONALLY,
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY PROVIDING
AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND
RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 130
KNOTS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THE WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE TWO STEERING RIDGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING
TY 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 11W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BALANCED
BY THE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN STEADILY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD BECAUSE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP OFF AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE
CUT OFF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INCLUDING NOGAPS,
JGSM, AND ECMWF. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE EGRR IS
THE WESTERN OUTLIER.//
NNNN

vincent614 发表于 2011-8-1 08:50

#26 Remarks
31日21时(UTC)位于18.8N 133.5E附近,台风11W(梅花),位于冲绳KADENA空军基地南南东570海里,过去6个小时以8kts的速度向西北方向移动。清晰可辨的10海里风眼仍然存在,红外动画图像显示系统中心附近对流有巩固组织的趋势,但尽管如此,过去24小时,强度改变不大,系统的强度被调低20kts,尽管其强度仍较强,系统已经连续两天表现出明显的日间强度浮动,白天对流衰减,晚间则对流爆发。白天的时候眼墙东北侧有所削弱,但最新的微波图像显示风暴的对流能够持续存在。过去24小时流出方面减弱很多,但目前已开始改善。水汽图像动画显示一处东西向的槽线于31日0时(UTC)形成,位于系统的东北方向,目前该槽线沿24N纬线伸展开来,限制了台风西北象限的流出。31日12UTC的PGTW上层气流分析也显示系统西北方向风切正在加强,虽然该槽线抑制西北象限的流出,它在促进东北象限的流出,东北象限已形成稳固的向北流出通道,整个南半圆的对流十分深厚,体积庞大。最新的ASCAT风场扫描显示,南半圆烈风范围伸展到170海里开外。台风11W正沿脊线弱点继续向北移动,这一弱点位于中国东部的季节性高压和向东南退去的小笠原群岛高压之间,这种缓慢和摇摆不定的向北运动将至少持续到20N纬度(未来18小时),此后高压系统将接手引导,使得系统折向西北。强度数值显示,最强风切将出现在未来18小时,也就是在系统西折之前。20N以北的地方,风切将基本保持在15kts左右,在风暴所经之处,海温将维持在29度,海洋热容量值事关强度预报,尽管海温很高,但在20N纬线以北,26度水温深度线较先向海面退却达50%,路径预报数值结果正在逐渐接近,JTWC预报在72小时内于各家预报相通点重合,72小时后,路径将比各家预报集成偏南,以弥补GFS EGRR GFDN等机构的错误初始场输入。但是该系统仍将对冲绳造成重大影响。各家强度预报也明显趋同,数值动力预报和纯动力预报仍然存在分歧,但是其分歧正逐渐减小,而且都更加接近于JTWC的预报。31日18UTC最大浪高为46英尺。此后的警报将于1日3、9、15和21时发出。



REMARKS:312100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 133.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE,JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADISTINCT 10 NM EYE PERSISTS, AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS ARECENT TREND TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THECONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. OVERALL THOUGH, THERE IS NOTMUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY, WHICH CONTINUE TO BE BASED ON AGENCYSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE OVERALLSYSTEM INTENSITY HAS COME DOWN 20 KNOTS. DESPITE ITS SEVEREINTENSITY, TY 11W IS SHOWING DIURNAL INTENSITY FLUCTUATION. FOR THESECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY, CONVECTION WANED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURSAND SURGED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALLOVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OCCURRED DURING THE DAYLIGHT EBB, BUTTHE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEPCONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THE OUTFLOW SITUATION ALSODETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT IT TOO IS STARTING TOIMPROVE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTEDTROUGH IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BEGINNING NEAR310000Z. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE 24TH LATITUDEAND IS NOW SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE311200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASEDSHEER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS IMPEDINGON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, IT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW OVER THENORTHEAST QUADRANT. A VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS SET UP OVER THENORTHEASTERN SECTOR. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS ANDCONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS WIDESPREAD ANDDEEP. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDAPPROXIMATELY 170 NM OUTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TY 11WCONTINUES ITS POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONALANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS NOWRETROGRADING SOUTHEAST. THE SLOW AND ERRATIC POLEWARD MOVEMENT WILLCONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE (TAU 18),AND THEN THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN NUDGING THE SYSTEM ON A BEND TOTHE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST SHEARWILL BE ENCOUNTERED DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS, JUST BEFORE THE STORMMAKES ITS WESTWARD BEND. ABOVE 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICALWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS, WHILE SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 29 DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TRACK.OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS THE PRIMARY VARIABLE IN THE INTENSITYFORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTHOF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTOTIGHTER ALIGNMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH CONSENSUS(WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND ECMWF) THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU72, THE TRACK IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR WHATIS BELIEVED TO BE THE ERRONEOUS INPUT OF GFS, EGRR, AND GFDN. ALLAIDS, HOWEVER, INDICATE A HIGH IMPACT STRIKE ON OR VERY CLOSE TOOKINAWA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO ALIGNED SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE ISSTILL A SPLIT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THEDYNAMIC AIDS, BUT THEY ARE DRAWING MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER, AND MUCHCLOSER TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT311800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND012100Z.//NNNN

冬腌菜 发表于 2011-8-1 22:24

#27 世界时1日3时

1. 供气象专业人员使用
2. 12小时总结和分析
   A. 台风11W(梅花),目前大致位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南偏南方向550海里处。在之前的6小时内,以4海里/小时的速度向西北偏北方向移动。多频卫星扫描云图(?)显示,在过去的6小时内,系统组织没有发生明显变化,德沃夏克分析得到的强度估测维持。直径为10海里的风眼已被填塞,但是尚无系统进入眼壁置换周期的信号。在过去的24小时内,系统强度减弱了15海里/小时。最新的微波扫描图显示,眼墙仍然连续地环绕底层环流中心,同时深层对流始终存在。在过去12小时内,流出情况有所好转。水气云图动画上可见东北象限的极向流出仍然强盛,同时西北象限的流出被抑制的状况有所缓解,赤道向的流出继续存在。同时南半球的对流仍然广阔并且深厚。最新的ASCAT风场扫描显示大风圈在南侧半圆伸展到170海里远处。台风11W继续运行在副热带高压脊的弱点处,该弱点位于华东上空的季节性反气旋和目前退向东南的小笠原高压之间。
3. A. 和之前的预报思路没有区别。
   B. 由于系统目前缺少引导,预期系统在12小时之内,也就是运行到北纬20度之前,将继续缓慢并且不稳定地向北移动。在此之后,正在后退的副高脊线将足够接近,因此预期路径将向西北微调。强度分析显示系统将在12小时内经过垂直风切变最强的地区,系统经过北纬20度之后,预期垂直风切变将保持在15海里/小时,同时海面水温仍将接近29摄氏度。海洋的热容量仍然是强度预报的主要变量。虽然海面温度仍然较高,但是超过26摄氏度的海水厚度,在北纬20度以上减少了差不多一半。11W转向后遇到的风切的减弱将会补偿减小的海洋热容量,因此在72小时内,强度仅会有轻微的减弱。路径模型之间的差异进一步减小,JTWC的预报在72小时内继续和数值共识保持一致。
   C. 72小时之后,鉴于EGRR和GFDN的预测北于数值模式的主要预测,JTWC的路径预报比数值共识偏南。即便如此,所有的模型都预测系统将直接冲击或者十分接近冲绳。不同的强度预报也显著接近。统计-动态模型和动态模型仍然有区别,但是它们正逐步接近。预计72-120小时之间,系统所在环境的垂直风切变将保持在15海里/小时附近,同时海温将在29-30度。因此48小时之后强度不会继续减弱,因此预期台风11W在通过琉球群岛之前仍然保持3位数的强度(单位:海里/小时)

WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE REMAINING STEADY. THE
10 NM EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT
THE STORM IS ENTERING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS, SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED 15 KNOTS. THE LATEST
AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL REMAINS
CONTIGUOUS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THE OUTFLOW SITUATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, AND INHIBITION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS EASED.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND CONVECTION OVER THE
ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS WIDESPREAD AND DEEP. THE LATEST
AVAILABLE ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FOR 170 NM
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TY 11W CONTINUES ITS POLEWARD TRACK
THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS
EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE
BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS NOW RETROGRADING SOUTHEAST.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THE LACK OF A STEERING MECHANISM WILL ALLOW SLOW AND ERRATIC
POLEWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE 20TH LATITUDE (TAU 12), THEN THE
RETROGRADING ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN NUDGING THE SYSTEM ON A BEND TO THE
NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST SHEAR WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, JUST BEFORE THE STORM MAKES
ITS WESTWARD BEND. BEYOND 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS, WHILE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 29 DEGREES. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC)
REMAINS THE PRIMARY VARIABLE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE
ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PERCENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. THE EASING OF THE WIND SHEAR AFTER TY 11W BENDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BALANCE THE DECLINING OHC TO AFFECT A NEUTRAL TO WEAK
DECLINE IN INTENSITY TREND THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO CONVERGE INTO TIGHTER ALIGNMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK STAYS WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC TRACK IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO
COMPENSATE FOR EGRR, AND GFDN, WHICH STEER THE SYSTEM FARTHER
POLEWARD THAN THE MAIN BODY OF GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE TWO TOP
PERFORMERS, ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. ALL AIDS, HOWEVER, INDICATE A HIGH
IMPACT STRIKE ON OR VERY CLOSE TO OKINAWA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO ALIGNED SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS STILL A SPLIT BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS, BUT THEY ARE
DRAWING CLOSER TOGETHER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR
15 KNOTS FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
RANGE FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES. NO FURTHER DECLINES IN OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT BEYOND TAU 48 ARE INDICATED, THUS TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT INTENSITY UNTIL WEST OF THE RYUKYUS.//
NNNN

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-8-2 17:35

28报要点
世界时1日9时的位置在20.1N 134.1E。台风梅花目前位置在日本嘉手纳空军基地的东南面月525海里的洋面上,在过去6小时内,以每小时9海里的速度向东北北方向移动。动画红外云图显示11W的眼已经小时并且其眼壁的北部浑浊。一个A 312306Z SSMIS 91H微波扫描显示一个流出的对流环相邻在下沉区域周围。这个表明梅花在过去12小时正在经历一个眼壁置换的过程。表明系统在减弱。强度是基于KNES PGTW RJTD德法分析出的100——115kts.而定位是基于动画多光谱云图。上层分析表明系统的东北象限有良好的极向流出,不错的赤向流出,TUTT也在西北方向有流出。目前梅花沿着在中国东部和东南亚的脊移动。在未来12小时内,更多的是偏北移动。梅花应该在冲绳附近转向西北。数值预报的西北转的时间顺序有差异。GFS和GFDN的预测偏东的异常。梅花将以减弱的形势来完成眼壁置换周期,一旦完成,36小时后其强度将大幅上升。48小时后,由于海水的热含量降低,导致强度下降。世界时01日06时的波高为42英尺,下一次警报在世界时011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z


#28(remarks)
REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 134.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND THE CONVECTIVE EYE WALL HAS ERODED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. A 312306Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OUTER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING AN INNER HALF RING ADJACENT TO A SUBSIDENT AREA. THIS INDICATES TY 11W IS UNDERGOING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH HAS CAUSED TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER RIDGES CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN, TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS AND TAKE A WIDER TURN. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND HEDGES TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. TY MUIFA IS LIKELY IN A TEMPORARY STATE OF WEAKENING DURING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ONCE THE NEW EYE WALL FULLY STRENGTHENS, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH WILL TRANSIT NORTHWESTWARD AND ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AFTER TAU 48, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND CAUSE TY 11W TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// NNNN

9615 发表于 2011-8-2 17:37

WDPN32 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE AND THE ERODED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO REFORM. A 312306Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OUTER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING AN INNER HALF RING ADJACENT TO A SUBSIDENT MOAT. THIS INDICATES TY 11W WAS UNDERGOING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH CAUSED TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS GREATER THAN THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE NEW EYE WALL FORMATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN, TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY MUIFA IS LIKELY IN A TEMPORARY STATE OF WEAKENING DURING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ONCE THE NEW EYE WALL FULLY STRENGTHENS, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND CAUSE TY 11W TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD DRIVEN BY THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE DROP IN OHC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS AND TAKE A WIDER TURN. ECMWF IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG WITH NOGAPS, JGSM, AND EGRR.//
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