yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-8-2 17:42

第30报

30报
世界时01日21时位置在21.8N 134.1E。台风梅花现在位置在嘉手纳基地东南方约440海里的海面上。在过去六小时内,以每小时9海里的速度向偏北方向移动。最新红外云图显示,眼壁置换的过程已经发生。01/1705Z AMSRE 37GHZ图像显示有两个眼墙。01/1714Z AMSU-B显示有一个眼墙在轻微南移,并移动至LLCC,取代另一个。最新上层分析和水汽云图显示了有着很弱(5——10节)的风切。而在北面有着35——40节的很强的风切。梅花将转向由于一个东南部的脊。12小时后,系统由于受到副高单体和主题的引导气流向西北方向移动。世界时01日18时的波高为40英尺,系统为止在日本嘉手纳基地东南方461海里,下一次警报将在世界时020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z。

#30(remarks)
REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 134.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGENERATION OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM WITH A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAVING RECENTLY OCCURRED. A 01/1705Z AMSRE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC BANDING. A 01/1714Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE. THE RECENT UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT TY 11W IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE NORTH LIES STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING FROM A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARDS BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARDS BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 40 FEET. AT 080118 TYPHOON CENTER LOCATED 461 NM SE OF KADENA AB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// NNNN

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-8-2 17:44

31楼
31报

第31报
1.气象从业者专用
2.台风梅花,现在位置大约在日本嘉手纳空军基地东南方约410海里的海面上。在过去6小时内,以每小时9海里的速度向偏北方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示了一层薄薄的云盖住了它的眼。这在01/2109Z 91GHZ SSMIS微波扫描图像上也很清晰的显示了新形成的眼墙的对流覆盖了整个LLCC。这个破烂的眼墙直径13海里,比12小时前多了6海里。最新的上层分析和水汽云图显示了11W正受到微弱(5——10节)的风切。赤向流出不错。但向东的流出断裂,由于TUTT,并填充到西风气流中。还有更远的TUTT在日界线以东,并继续深化,重新开发其极向流出通道。由于眼壁置换,所以位置分析有良好的信心,而强度是基于PGTW的德法。目前系统将沿着副高西脊向北移动。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由没有改变
B.未来12小时,梅花由于副高引导继续西北移动。由于条件的有利将开始加强,在24小时将达到巅峰120海里每小时.而48小时内,由于海水热含量在25N以北大幅降低,强度将略有减弱。由于环境的不利,北边有高压脊建立,导致极向流出将受到抑制。
C.72小时内,11W将继续西北行。系统将在海水热含量的下降时也略有消减。风切预计还是很弱。48小时内数值预计将折向西北。GFS和GFDN是脱离其他的数值,采用更向北的路径。ECMWF和EGRR是最左的,而72小时候的预测有一定的偏北分量。因为高压脊是东西走向,所以排除了更北(GFS很GFDN)的走向
WDPN32 PGTW 020300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 31//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS REFORMED AN EYE THAT IS COVERED BY A THIN CIRRUS VEIL. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 01/2109Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINED IN THE NEWLY FORMED EYEWALL STRUCTURE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DIAMETER OF THIS NEW RAGGED EYEWALL IS APPROXIMATELY 13 NM, WHICH IS 6 NM LARGER THAN 12-HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT TY 11W CONTINUES TO BE UNDER WEAK (05-10 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT BUT THE EASTWARD ZONAL OUTFLOW IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING DISCONNECTED FROM A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS FILLING INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE TUTT CELLS THAT LIE FARTHER TO THE EAST, NEAR THE DATELINE, ARE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND SHOULD RE-TAP THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF TY 11W. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AS THE EYEWALL REFORMS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.    B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN AND BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. TY MUIFA WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND REACH A MAX INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48 THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) BEGINS TO DROP OFF SHARPLY NEAR THE 25TH LATITUDE LINE. THEREFORE, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS LESS FAVORABLE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS.    C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD DRIVEN BY THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE DROP IN OHC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE RIGHT OUTLIERS AND TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. ECMWF AND EGRR CONTINUE TO BE THE LEFT OUTLIERS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A MODERATE POLEWARD TURN JUST RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. THE SHARPER TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS RULED OUT DUE TO THE UNLIKELY SCENARIO OF TAKING TY 11W INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.//NNNN

自愚自乐 发表于 2011-8-3 10:34

#32

世界时2日9时,定位北纬23.0度,东经133.9度

台风(TY)11W梅花现位于日本嘉手纳空军基地东-东南约410海里处,在过去6小时内以6kts的速度向偏北方向移动。动态多光谱卫星图像显示出气旋发展完善的眼区以及过去几小时内西偏北的移动路径。一张世界时2日4时30分的AMSU-B 89GHZ 图像也显示出清晰风眼和集中浑圆的螺旋云臂。而最近的水汽图像则显示气旋气旋极佳的赤道向流出和较好的极向流出。气旋西北侧的对流层上部槽流出对其发展产生促进。世界时2日0时的上层流场分析显示11W目前处在垂直风切微弱环境中(5~10knots)。随着梅花移近上层反气旋以及与之相关的位于冲绳西北的副高脊中轴线,周围环境风切将保持微弱。气旋过去数日受其东方的高层脊引导。但最近的卫星动态图像显示北侧引导脊开始对气旋产生影响。未来12小时该高层脊会更多地将气旋向西引导,且会使得气旋在未来48至72小时内持续西-西北行。随后,从中国移来的槽将会削弱该脊的西伸程度,11W路径可能就此增加向北分量。

各数值模式远期预报分歧很大。EGRR 和 EC认为引导脊维持强劲,推动11W不断西进。而GFS和GFDN则报强中纬西来槽,认为气旋将北上。我们的预报接近各数值平均共识,且与之前预报相似。世界时2日3时最大有效浪高35英尺。后续警告将于世界时2日15时、21时、3日3时、9时发出。



REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 133.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRALSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SLIGHT WEST OF NORTHMOVEMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 02/0430Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGEALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH CONCENTRIC BANDING. RECENT WATERVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TY 11W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASWELL AS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BENEFITTING FROMOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THENORTHEAST. 02/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 11WIS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS). VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS 11W APPROACHES AN UPPERLEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OFOKINAWA. TY 11W HAS BEEN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEPLAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, RECENTSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HASBEGUN TO INFLUENCE TY 11W. DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS THIS DEEPLAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER 11W MORE WESTERLY. THIS RIDGEWILL CONTINUE TO STEER 11W WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHTAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM CHINA WILL WEAKENTHE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE, AND TY 11W WILL LIKELY TAKE ON AMORE NORTHERLY MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN LATERTAUS, WITH EGRR AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A STRONG STEERING RIDGE ANDKEEPING TY 11W\'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD WHILE GFS AND GFDN FAVOR A MORENORTHERLY TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGHAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS ANDIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 020600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300ZAND030900Z. // NNNN

自愚自乐 发表于 2011-8-3 10:36

#33

1.   气象从业者专用.

2.    12小时概要和分析.

A.台风(TY)11W梅花现位于日本嘉手纳空军基地东-东南约370海里处,在过去6小时内以7kts的速度向北北西方向移动。动态红外卫星图像显示出气旋西行分量增加。这是北侧引导脊开始发挥作用的标志。该图像同时显示风眼对称清晰。一张世界时3日8时24分91GHZ SSIMIS微波卫星图像显示对流最深处位于气旋西北侧,而另一道深层螺旋云臂在气旋东、南半部卷入。最近的水汽图像显示赤道向流出持续良好,而东北部的对流层上部槽则增强了此方向上的流出。上层流场分析显示11W目前处在垂直风切微弱环境中(5~10knots)。随着梅花移近上层反气旋以及与之相关的位于冲绳西北的副高脊中轴线,周围环境风切将保持较弱(<20knots)。气旋过去数日受其东方的高层脊引导。基于红外卫星图像,气旋当前定位精确度较高。数值机构德法分析气旋强度102至115knots。气旋目前受其东南方赤反和北侧副高脊的共同作用,向北北西移动。

3.    预报理由.

A. 预报原则同先前报文一致。


      B.   随着北侧副高脊成为主要引导机制,11W西行分量将增加。未来12至36小时在副高脊继续盘踞日本的同时,气旋路径就将稍微显出这 一趋势。由于水温较高,高层环境良好,梅花强度将维持。48小时后,由于气旋路径上25N以上区域海水热含量较小,气旋将稍有减弱。随着北侧高压脊的建立,气旋极向流出也会受到抑制。


      C.   72小时后,11W将继续沿着北侧高层引导脊向西北方向移动。由于海水热含量的降低,气旋将继续缓慢减弱。整个预报周期内风切保持微弱。各数值48小时后预测路径差异几乎达到90度。EGRR 和 EC认为引导脊维持强劲,推动11W不断西进。而GFS和GFDN则报强中纬西来槽,认为引导脊受到打击,气旋将北上。我们的预报与之前预报相似,且比各数值平均共识稍偏西。

#33(reasoning)WDPN32 PGTW 031500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONINGFOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1.FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A.TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENAAIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS BEGUN TAKING AMORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS EVIDENCE THAT THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THENORTH IS LIKELY BEGINNING ITS INFLUENCE ON TY MUIFA. A SYMMETRIC EYE IS VERYAPPARENT IN IR IMAGERY, AND A 03/0824 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGEINDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE EYE.THIS IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS ANOTHER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THEEASTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF TY MUIFA. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATESTY 11W CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND A TROPICAL UPPERTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO INCREASING OUTFLOW IN THATDIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W IS IN A REGION OFWEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAINFAVORABLE (<20 KNOTS) AS 11W APPROACHES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANDASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERYWITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAKINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKINGNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TOTHE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECASTPHILOSOPHY. B. TY 11W HAS BEGUN TO STEER MORE WESTWARDAS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. ASLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS AS THISRIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER JAPAN. TY MUIFA WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS SEASURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.AFTER TAU 48 ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) BEGINS TO DECREASE NORTH OF25N AND COULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WEAKENING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY ALSO BE IMPACTEDAS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS FORECAST TOCONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD DRIVEN BY THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THENORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE DROP IN OHC.VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD NEARLY 90 DEGREES AFTER TAU 48 WITH EGRR ANDECMWF FORECASTING A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH, KEEPING TY 11W ON A MOREWESTERLY TRACK. GFS AND GFDN ARE PROGGING A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVERCHINA TO ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND FORCE 11W TO MOVEIN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUSFORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO BUT JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS.// NNNN

自愚自乐 发表于 2011-8-3 10:37

#34

世界时2日21时,定位北纬24.0度,东经132.9度


台风(TY)11W梅花现位于日本嘉手纳空军基地东-东南约320海里处,在过去6小时内以7kts的速度向西北移动。动态红外卫星图像显示出气旋直径21海里的不规则风眼。一张世界时2日17时3分的89GHZ AMSU图像显示出中心外侧第二道对流螺旋云臂在主眼墙外形成。然而,动态总含水量图则显示气旋西北侧的干区可能会抑制此层包围眼墙新云臂的形成,从而阻碍另一轮眼墙置换。梅花会继续受中心位于本州的高层副高脊引导向西北移动。基于清晰眼区,当前定位的准确度很高。气旋目前强度维持110knots,与各机构德法分析均一致。

世界时2日18时最大有效浪高36英尺。后续警告将于世界时3日3时、9时、15时、21时发出。


NNNN

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 132.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 21 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 02/1703Z 89 GHZ AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS A SECONDARY CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE BAND BEGINNING TO FORM
AROUND THE MAIN EYEWALL. HOWEVER, ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TY 11W WHICH MAY
HINDER THE SECOND CONVECTIVE RING FROM COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE
EYEWALL AND THEREFORE POSSIBLY INHIBIT ANOTHER EYE WALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP
LAYERED BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT
110 KNOTS AS ALL REPORTING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DONE THE SAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

yangzhe1997 发表于 2011-8-3 11:13

第35报
第35报
1.气象从业者专用
2.12小时总结与分析
A.台风梅花,现在位于日本嘉手纳基地东南偏东方约295海里的海面上。在过去六小时内,以每小时7海里的速度向西北方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示梅花环流已经扩张到500海里,并且其环流对称。一个A 022055Z SSMIS微波扫描显示眼壁置换后的眼直径为20海里。
初始强度是基于KNES PGTW RJTD的德法分析出的102——115海里每小时。反气旋沿西北延伸,这个反气旋在西北外围有沉降效应,给梅花的流出带来麻烦,这个在动画水汽云图中可以看到。目前梅花沿着中心在本州东南的副高南脊移动。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由没有明显改变
B.梅花在很短的时间内经历了眼壁置换过程。24小时后将再出现新眼,由于环境的有利将替代旧眼。引导气流将引导台风经过冲绳以南。有可能在世界时042200Z距离嘉手纳基地38海里。48小时后,系统将到达黄海,由于海温低将减弱。
C.72小时,台风梅花将接近中国东北部海岸,由于陆地导致系统无法再卷入西南潮湿的对流,将进一步衰减。台风梅花,一直到预测其结束,将一直缓慢沿着上海及以北地区沿岸一直走,强度将最终减弱至热带风暴。由于在预测其内的风切依然微弱,所以其强度不会有重大突然变化。EGRR和ECMWF预测最西,GFS和GFDN因为预测一个强大的槽,将更偏北。现在JTWC的预测接近以前的。采取更中的路径。
WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL PROFILE
THAT HAS EXPANDED TO OVER 500 NM. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY EYEWALL
APPEARS TO BE FORMING AROUND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED 20-NM DIAMETER EYE,
AS DEPICTED ON A 022055Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102-115 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
ANTICYCLONE IS CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY, THIS IS OVERSHADOWED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TY 11W WILL, IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, AFTER ACQUIRING A NEW
EYE, IT WILL REINTENSIFY AS ALONG-TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING THE TYPHOON TOWARD SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WITH
AMBSACE TO KADENA AB APPROXIMATELY 38 NM ON OR ABOUT 042200Z. BY
TAU 48, TY 11W WILL REACH THE COOLER WATERS OF THE YELLOW SEA WHICH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE FOR ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CHINESE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE LANDMASS WILL BLOCK SOME OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE SYSTEM, CAUSING A MORE RAPID
DEGRADATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TY 11W WILL DRAG
ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SHANGHAI, REDUCED TO A TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL NOT PLAY ANY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY CHANGES OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPREAD NEARLY 90 DEGREES AFTER TAU 48 WITH EGRR AND ECMWF FAVORING
A STRONG STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, KEEPING TY 11W ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND GFDN ARE PROGGING A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER CHINA TO ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AND FORCE 11W TO MOVE IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS, FAVORING A MIDDLE-OF-THE-PACK SOLUTION.//
NNNN


lawrance 发表于 2011-8-4 14:08

#39
1.气象从业者专用.
2.12小时综述和分析.
台风11W梅花,中心位于日本KADENA空军基地东南约140海里,过去六小时以时速大致8kt向西移动.
多频卫星动画图像显示梅花正在进行眼壁置换.
内眼正在填塞,而过去12小时梅花强度维持.
另一方面032024ZSSMIS图像指出大部分外眼墙正有深层对流爆发.
新形成的风眼将扩大,直径大致90海里.
水汽图动画表明系统西侧以下沉气流为主,然而系统径向流出极佳.
参考了PGTW,KNES和RJTD的主观DVORAK评估方法可得出系统显示强度.
过去4天梅花正沿副高脊线南缘移动.
该反气旋脊线中心从接近北纬40度,日界线附近,移至现时的35N,160E.
反气旋的这种西南移动引导梅花采取西北偏西路径移动.
垂直风切变预估在10kt左右,而海表温度为28度.
3.
A.预报理由没有改变.
B.动力学模型显示副高将继续构建和移动,引导梅花进入东海.
数个路径模型预报稳定,分歧越来越少.
各个模型都有向ECMWF靠拢的赤向趋势.
目前唯一预报经过南OKINAWA的模型是GFS.
看起来作出这种预报是由于梅花和中纬度的槽互相作用.
强度预报模型结果比较集中,统计学模型和动力学模型也不再出现不一致.
预估72小时后垂直风切变仍低于20kt,海温将从现时的28度升为东海的29度.
梅花也将稍微作用于海水热焓,因此预料梅花登陆前强度变化平稳,而由于上述风切变和海温,梅花将达到100kt的强度峰值.
C.接近72小时后,梅花将擦过中国,离上海很近.
沿路径到海岸水温都暖和.
梅花强度将和风切变相关.
预测梅花沿路的风切变都低于20kt,大部分都接近10kt.
沿路上最暖海水和最低风切变出现在约72小时后.
因此,梅花将在登陆前达到强度峰值.
由于黄海的中纬度槽和梅花上层气流连结,因此在96小时到120小时后大规模降水将出现在CHANG-MA边境.
LLCC预期将在上海和北京间穿过,但与梅花相关的中高层水汽可能建立一道跨越朝鲜的水汽通道.

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W STRUGGLING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE STORM INTENSITY
HAS FLATTENED OUT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT A 032024Z SSMIS
IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE OUTER
EYEWALL. THE NEW EYE IS EXPANSIVE, MEASURING NEARLY 90 NM IN
DIAMETER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, YET EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE PAST FOUR
DAYS, THE ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH AND THE DATELINE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION
NEAR 35N 160E. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
28 DEGREES.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND RETROGRADE, FORCING THE STORM TOWARDS THE EAST CHINA SEA.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE AND MOVING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT.
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS ALSO SHOWN AN EQUATORWARD TREND IN
MOST OF THE AIDS, WITH MOST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING CONSENSUS, MOVING
TOWARDS ECMWF. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN OKINAWA
IS NOW GFS, AND THAT TRACK LOOKS TO BE A CASE OF EXCESSIVE DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONGEALED, AND THERE IS NO
LONGER A DISPARITY BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
72, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL INCREASE FROM ITS CURRENT 28
DEGREES TO 29 DEGREES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
TURNING OUT TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THE CASE OF TY 11W. THUS,
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND UNTIL
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL, WHEN SLIGHTLY WARMERS AND SLIGHTLY LESS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY
100 KNOTS.
   C. TY 11W WILL GRAZE THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, COMING VERY CLOSE
TO SHANGHAI, NEAR TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. STORM INTENSITY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TRACK AND CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. THE WARMEST
WATERS AND LOWEST WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS NEAR TAU 72. THUS, THE
TY 11W WILL REACH ITS HIGHEST INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY FLOODING ALONG THE CHANG MA BOUNDARY IN
THE TAU 96-120 RANGE AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE YELLOW SEA
LINKS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS OF TY 11W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND FILL BETWEEN SHANGHAI AND
BEIJING, BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
MAY SET UP A DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER NORTH KOREA.//
NNNN

rifleman175 发表于 2011-8-4 18:26

#40 概述翻译

04日0900UTC最新定位:大约在24.8N,128.9E
1109台风(TY)“梅花”现位于日本嘉手纳空军基地东南约125海里的海面上,过去6小时以6节(knots)的时速向西移动。动态多光谱卫星云图显示“梅花”的风眼已经填塞,不过系统低层仍有曲率较高的螺旋云团卷入LLCC。先前4日0009UTC的SSMIS微波扫描图显示梅花正在进行墙眼置换,其墙眼外有一条新的闭合对流云带生成,并包围了残缺的内眼壁云带。梅花目前的定位是有上述多光谱动态卫星云图和日本的雷达扫描图得出的;而梅花目前的强度则是参考PGTW、KNES以及RJTD,根据德法分析得出的80至90 knots估算出的。梅花现在高层辐散仍然不错,并拥有一条延伸到系统东北方的极向流出通道,以及另一条赤向流出通道。台风“梅花”目前正受日本深层副高南缘的引导气流影响,缓缓前进。在未来12小时内,一个位于中国东部的西风槽会打击副高,并使“梅花”路径中的极向分量加大。在未来48小时内,由于梅花途径的海域海表水温(SST)高,高层流出会随着西风槽的经过而进一步改善,预计系统会持续加强。到了72预报时,虽然海温、高空环境优秀如初,但在受到中国东部的陆地摩擦作用影响下,预计“梅花”的强度会开始逐渐减弱。到了本次预报期的后期,“梅花”附近的垂直风切变预计会加强。而在120预报时后,“梅花”则会开始消散。目前的数值预报路径一致性较高,其中,ECMWF和GFS的路径最为偏南,而EGRR的路径最为偏北。本次预报路径和理由较上次预报和数值共识一致性很高。4日0600UTC的最大浪高为37英尺。下次预警时间:4日1500UTC、4日2100UTC、5日0300UTC、5日0900UTC。//
NNNN

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE EYE HAS FILLED BUT MAINTAINS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER 040009Z
SSMIS SHOWS INDICATION THAT TY 11W IS COMPLETING AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A LARGER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING A
PARTIAL INNER CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
MSI AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W MAINTAINS GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER, SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGIN TO ALLOW TY
11W TO SLOWLY TURN MORE POLEWARD. WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW INTO THE TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. BY TAU 72, TY 11W WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
CHINA, EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TAU 96. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF AS THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND EGRR AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W
(MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
页: 1 2 3 [4]
查看完整版本: 2011-09号"梅花"台风(11W.Muifa)之JTWC预报理由翻译帖