风云色變 发表于 2013-6-28 11:49


        报数时间翻译情况翻译者楼层#128/00Z已翻译风云色變1#228/06Z已翻译loppyname2#328/12Z已翻译风云色變3#428/18Z已翻译wusifeng4#529/00Z已翻译loppyname5#629/06Z已翻译风云色變6#729/12Z已翻译dujuan20037#829/18Z已翻译wusifeng8#930/00Z已翻译风云色變9#1030/06Z已翻译wusifeng10#1130/12Z已翻译dujuan200311#1230/18Z已翻译wusifeng12#1301/00Z已翻译风云色變13#1401/06Z已翻译wusifeng14#1501/12Z已预约dujuan200315#1601/18Z已预约wusifeng16#17 FW02/00Z无需翻译

由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国,所以特开此贴。
本贴翻译JTWC报文。
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风云色變 发表于 2013-6-28 13:18

#01 28/00Z

世界时28日00时 (北京时间28日08时)

1. 供气象专业人员用
2. 6小时总结和分析

西北太平洋热带低压(TD) 06W集结於菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约572海浬(1060km)。在过去六小时中, 06W以时速10海浬(19km/h)西北偏北方向移动。


多频(MSI)卫星图像动画显示了06W低层环流中心(LLCC)正慢慢巩固, 有深对流卷入中心。


SSMIS 272346Z的底层微波扫描, 显示06W深对流状态改善。中心的西北象限及南半圆有大片深对流包围中心。我们使用这张扫描支持定位, 信心中等。


基於PGTW和RJTD的德法方析, 我们估计06W的强度为25kt(45km/h, 13m/s)

高层探空分析指, 热带低气压06w位处的环境十分理想, 中等偏弱的垂直风切变, 对比由一个弱高空冷涡所提供的极佳幅散性流出。29~31℃海表温度同样是非常理想。

3. 预报

A. 这是我们为热带低气压06w所作的第一次预报。

B. 06W正沿副热带高压脊(STR)的西南边沿移动。271800Z 的 NAVGEM 和 GFS, 显示500百帕层面上, 向西延伸至香港的副热带高压成为主要引导06W移动的系统。该模式预测, 副热带高压脊将在整个预测范围内维持盘踞该区, 所以, 06W将维持西北路径, 72小时後横过菲律宾进入南中国海。未来72小时内的预报接近於复合模式的预报。预计热带低气压06W将在12小时後增强至30kt(15m/s, 55km/h), 维持强度横过菲律宾, 并在南海增强为热带风暴。高层探空数据显示现时南海的垂直风切(VWS)颇强(30~40kt), 增强中的风切将对届时横过南海的06W产生威胁。对於这部分的路径预报, 我们信心较高。但对於强度预报, 我们信心较低。06w在横过菲律宾时将受地形摩擦影响减弱。


C. 在延伸期预报中, 06W将到达副高带高压脊的西缘, 靠近中国南部。06w将继续维续其西北路径, 直到96小时後, 06w以30kt强度(15m/s, 55km/h)接近香港。120小时後06减弱至20kt(35km/h, 10m/s), 并续渐在陆上消散。总括来说, 在延伸期预报, 因为模式的限制,
我们信心较低。


WDPN31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 272346Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANTS AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. 3. FORECAST REASONING.    A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.    B. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 271800Z 500 MB NAVGEM AND GFS MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE STR WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO HONG KONG. THE MODEL FIELDS FORECAST THE STR TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VWS MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AREA INDICATES HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) VWS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY, AS LAND INTERACTION ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES POSES THE THREAT OF WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.    C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS NORTHWEST TRACK TO TAU 96 AS IT APPROACHES HONG KONG AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS AT TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.// NNNN

loppyname 发表于 2013-6-28 13:24

【#02】6.28-06Z

协调世界时28日09时 (北京时间28日08时)
1. 供气象专业人员用
2. 6小时总结和分析
热带低气压(TD) 06W正集结在马尼拉东南偏东约 530海里(NM)。在过去六小时其以9海里每小时(KT)往西北偏西移动。多频卫星图像动画(MSI)显示 06W 仍然维持一个正巩固的广阔低层环流中心(LLCC),伴随着零碎对流正被捲入中心。280508Z 的 AMSU/B 微波扫描图像支持目前中心定位,定位信心为中等。目前强度估测基于 PGTW 和 RJTD 的德法分析而定为 30KT。高空分析显示 06W 正处于副热带高压脊的南方,风切弱至中等(10-20海里每小时(KT));而水汽云图动画显示一弱高空冷渦(TUTT)在 06W 的东北面,并为它带来好幅散性流出。06W 正沿副热带高压脊的西南侧移动,沿途海温适合发展(28-30°C)。
3. 预报理由
A. 对上次预报没有显着修订。
B. 热带低气压(TD) 06W 会一直沿副热带高压脊(STR)的南侧移动,预料它将在约18小时後登陆菲律宾萨马省,横过群岛,并在约48小时后重新进入位于南中国海(SCS)的仁牙因湾。预料 06W 将在登陆菲律宾前稍稍增强,然后因地形影响而减弱。当系统进入南中国海,预料其强度将会因其身处于高海温环境而重新增强。受风切(VWS)增强影响,预料系统在约72小时後达到巅峰,巅峰强度为 35海里每小时(KT)。
C. 72小时後,预料 06W 将沿副热带高压脊(STR)的西侧在香港附近作它最后一次登陆,并在陆地上消散。有限数值预报保持高一致性。基于强烈的预报理据,我们对路径预测信心较高。

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEEDING INTO THE LLCC. A 280508Z AMSU/B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 06W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 06W WILL TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL SOON MAKE LANDFALL OVER SAMAR,
PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 18, DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR LINGAYEN GULF SHORTLY AFTER TAU
48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ISLANDS. IT WILL RESUME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SCS DUE TO WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 72, TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING VWS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, DISSIPATING INLAND BY END
OF FORECAST. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM.//
NNNN

风云色變 发表于 2013-6-28 19:18

#03 28/12Z

协调世界时28日12时 (北京时间28日20时)
1. 供气象专业人员用
2. 6小时总结和分析

热带低气压(TD) 06W正集结在马尼拉东南偏东约452海里(837km)。在过去六小时其以12海里每小时(22km/h)往西北偏西移动。

紅外線卫星图像动画(IR) 显示 06W 仍然维持一个,伴随着正加深中的零碎对流被捲入中心。



目前中心定位是基於紅外卫星图像动画(IR)以及各機構作出的調整,定位信心偏低。

目前强度估测基于 PGTW 和 RJTD 的德法分析, 以及最近的海表風場掃描, 而定为 30KT。



高空分析显示 06W 正处于副热带高压脊的南方,风切弱至中等(10-20海里每小时(KT));而水汽云图动画显示一弱高空冷涡(TUTT)在 06W 的东北面,并为它带来好幅散性流出。06W 正沿副热带高压脊的西南侧移动,沿途海温适合发展(28-30°C)。

3. 预报理由
A. 对上次预报没有显着修订。

B. 热带低气压(TD) 06W 会一直沿副热带高压脊(STR)的南侧移动,预料它将在约18小时後登陆菲律宾萨马省,横过群岛,并在约48小时后重新进入位于南中国海(SCS)的仁牙因湾。预料 06W 将在登陆菲律宾前稍稍增强,然后因地形影响而减弱。当系统进入南中国海,预料其强度将会因其身处于高海温环境而重新增强。受风切(VWS)增强影响,预料系统在约72小时後达到巅峰,巅峰强度为 50海里每小时(93km/h, 26m/s)。

C. 72小时後,预料 06W 将沿副热带高压脊(STR)的西侧在香港附近作它最后一次登陆,并在陆地上消散。数值预报保持高一致性, 除了在末期有小分歧。基于强烈的预报理据,我们对路径预测信心较高。


WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED
BUT HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AGENCY FIXES WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 06W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 06W WILL TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL SOON MAKE LANDFALL OVER SAMAR,
PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 42. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. IT WILL RESUME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SCS DUE TO THE WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS
BY TAU 72, TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING VWS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, DISSIPATING INLAND BY END
OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
SPREADING TOWARDS THE END OF FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM. //
NNNN

wusifeng 发表于 2013-6-29 05:21

#04/28-18Z

1、供气象专业人士
2、6小时概况与分析
      热带风暴06W(RUMBIA)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南方大约369海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速14节向西北方向移动。红外动画卫星图像显示爆发中的深对流正在巩固底层环流中心(LLCC)。最近的OSCAT PASS(28日15:43Z)显示LLCC呈东西向狭长,中心风速在30节左右。LLCC沿着副高脊(STR)南侧移动并将穿过菲律宾中央群岛。沿途的29-30℃的海温(SSTS)非常适合发展。高层分析显示其北方正在减弱的高空冷涡将抑制极向流出。其主要的高层流出是靠10-15节的深东风带,该东风带为系统在过去12小时以时速10-14节前进时带来微弱的垂直风切变(VWS)(5-10节)。
3、预报理由
A    此次预报原理与前一次没有显著的不同
B    TS 06W将继续沿着副高脊南侧移动,穿过菲律宾进入南中国海并最终在72小时候后登陆中国大陆。随着冷涡的减弱和被东风带填充,06W将有稍好转的高空极向流出,目前预测它在未来12小时将有略微加强。前面提到的OSCAT PASS 显示LLCC正在菲律宾以东沿岸并在未来12-24小时逐渐增加对菲的陆上影响,并在36小时后进入南中国海。届时在南海优良的环境下(高海温)LLCC将重新组建并加强。由于高空环境的不足将抑制系统的快速发展,但能够在登陆前加强到STS下限。
C    预测其在72小时后在香港西南侧的中国大陆登陆。由于登陆后的高风切和地面摩擦,84小时后系统将减弱,并最终在120小时后消散。各大数据的72小时路径高度一致,但暗示在登陆后路径会有波动。当前预报是基于各大数据的共识结果,但96-120小时有向南的共识。基于以上较合理的路径预报理由,预报的可信度较高。                  
WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVING CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A STEADILY
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 281543Z
OSCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND
CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE LLCC HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECAYING TUTT CELL LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS HAMPERING MORE AGGRESSIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS OF DEEP EASTERLIES, CREATING A LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS THE TRACK SPEED FOR THE SYSTEM IS ON
THE ORDER OF 1O TO 14 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
TRACKING THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND
EVENTUALLY INTO MAINLAND CHINA SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS THE TUTT CELL WEAKENS AND FILLS, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER OUTFLOW
IN THE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL CHANNEL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT
PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND WILL SEE INCREASING LAND INFLUENCE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS, LASTING THROUGH TAU 36 AS TS 06W MOVES INTO THE SCS.
A RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (GOOD SSTS) OF THE SCS, WITH
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72. A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HINDER RAPID DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
CHINA, JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. INCREASING VWS AND THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 84, WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
INDICATES SOME VARIATION AFTER LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAUS 96 AND 120 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM MID- TO LOW-LEVELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING
MECHANISM.//
NNNN

loppyname 发表于 2013-6-29 12:07

【#05】6.29-03Z

世界时29日03时
1. 供气象专业人员用
2. 6小时总结和分析
热带风暴温比亚正集结在菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约 301海里(~560KM)处。在过去六小时其以时速11海里(~20KM/H)往西北偏西移动。多频卫星图像动画(MSI)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)已经登陆菲律宾萨马岛,系统对流组织亦在过去数小时稍稍变差。受到地形抬升影响,深对流在系统的西面及南面。目前定位较难,是基于 PGTW 的定位及 282333Z 的 SSMIS 91GHZ 微波影像而定的。强度估测基于 PGTW 和 KNES 的德法分析而定为 35KT。系统将沿副热带高压脊的南侧移动,并掠过菲律宾中部群岛。系统身处地方海温(SSTS)29-30°C,适合系统发展。高空分析显示一消散中的高空冷涡(TUTT CELL) 正处于系统北方,并已经开始北移和拉长。由于系统和该冷涡的距离渐远,系统的极向流出稍微改善。系统于一深东风带内移动,身处地方风切低(5-10节)。
3. 预报理由
A. 对上次预报没有显着修订。
B. 06W 将继续沿副热带高压脊(STR)南侧移动,横过菲律宾後进入南海,并将早于72小时後登陆中国.目前预测 06W 将保持强度并横过菲律宾,并将在拥有良好环境的南海(高海温)中增强,直至系统登陆中国。虽然南海的高层环境会阻礙系统的快速增强,但预料系统仍会增强成 TS上限。
C.72小时候,预料 06W 将在香港西面登陆。强风切(VWS)及地形摩擦效应会令系统减弱,然后在96小时後消散。数值模式基本同意72小时后的路径预测,但对其登陆後的路径及强度存在分歧。总体预测是基于数值模式的集合,而对72小时及96小时後的预测则比数值模式集合较南(基于预测中低层的引导气流的影响)。基于强烈的预报理据,我们对路径预测信心较高。
WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
MOVED OVER SAMAR ISLAND, PHILIPPINES AND HAS BECOME MARGINALLY LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY, THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT
IS SUPPORTED BY A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A 282333Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
PASS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE LLCC HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECAYING TUTT CELL LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE
SEPARATION OF THE TUTT CELL AND THE LLCC INCREASES. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN
PHASE WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
TRACKING THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND
EVENTUALLY INTO MAINLAND CHINA SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 72. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY INTENSITY TREND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. A RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (GOOD SSTS) OF THE SCS, WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND LANDFALL INTO CHINA. A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HINDER RAPID DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MAINLAND CHINA,
JUST TO THE WEST OF HONG KONG. INCREASING VWS AND THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT INDICATES SOME VARIATION AFTER
LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAUS
72 AND 96 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN STEERING INFLUENCE FROM MID- TO
LOW-LEVELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO
THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM.//
NNNN

风云色變 发表于 2013-6-29 12:55

#06 29/06Z

协调世界时29日06时 (北京14时)

热带风暴温比亚正集结在菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约 230海里(~426KM)处。在过去六小时其以时速12海里(~22KM/H)往西北偏西移动。

多频卫星图像动画(MSI)显示零散云系卷入部分外露的低层环流中心(LLCC)。290459Z的AMSU扫描,显示深对深从北面逆时针地紧紧包围中心直到东面。因为温比亚的结构组职有所改善, 目前定位信心较佳。

根据德法的估算, 计算出35kt的强度, 基於AMSU扫描, 显示了紧密的环流, 所以我们将强度定为40KT(~75km/h, 20m/s), 比起德法的估算略高。

系统将沿副热带高压脊的南侧移动,并掠过菲律宾中部群岛。高空探空分析显示, 一位於北纬20度以及东经125度的高空冷涡(TUTT)为其提供了中等流出, 配合较弱的埀直风切(<15kt), 系统所处环境理想。

3. 预报理由

A. 对上次预报没有显着修订。

B. 热带风暴06W 将继续於72小时内沿副热带高压脊(STR)南及西南侧西北移动,各模式均在未来48小时内有紧密共识, 到48小时後只相差130海浬(~204km)。分歧在於06W转为北移的时期各有不同。模式之中只有NAVGEM预计其将探取拋物缐西转。分析指初始場和實際情況大致, 但預測的結果卻是06W快速減弱,並在48小時後消散。相近预计06W将在横过菲律宾後重新加强并在48小时後到达巅峰。然後由高层副热带高压带来的北方强烈风切将限制其未来的发展。预计60小时後06W将在香港以南登陆并受地形摩擦影响迅速减弱。对於48小时後, 其路径如何我们不确定, 但我们肯定其将在香港附近北转。

C.72小时候,热带风暴06W 将迅速减弱, 沿中低层副高西沿向北移动。系统将大约在96小时後消散。总括来说,我们对路径预测信心较高。


WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
(TCB) WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. A 290459Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE TCB EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NEAR 20N 125E, AND WEAK (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
WITH A 130 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE
OF THE TURN NORTHWARD. NAVGEM IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH A WESTWARD
TURN VICE RE-CURVE; HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE FIELDS INDICATES THAT
NAVGEM IS DEPICTING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN BUT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS IMMEDIATELY AFTER
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER
CROSSING THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK NEAR TAU 48
AT WHICH POINT INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL STR OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 60
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HONG KONG AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS CLEARLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK
AFTER TAU 48 BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT TS 06W SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD
NEAR HONG KONG.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

dujuan2003 发表于 2013-6-29 23:29

#07 29/12Z

1. 供氣象人員使用

2. 6小時總結和分析
熱帶風暴(TS)06W(溫比亞),集結在馬尼拉之東南偏東約145浬,在過去六小時,它以14節的速度往西北移動。紅外線衛星圖像動畫顯示,過去六小時,TS 06W有輕微減弱的趨勢,這是因為它正在橫過呂宋,以及有更多零碎而深厚的對流雲帶捲入其低層旋轉中心所致。可是,290910Z的SSMIS影像繼續指出,它有著緊密的捲曲雲帶(TCB),以及一個明確的中心。基於這樣的對流結構,我們對06W的初始定位有著很大的信心,初始的強度仍然是40節,稍為高於以德沃夏克法估算出來的35節(基於最近的微波圖像上清楚顯示的TCB)。TS 06W正沿著一股深厚的副熱帶高壓脊(STR)的南側快速地移動著。高層的分析顯示,06W身在大致良好的大氣環境中--受惠於22N 125E附近的一個冷渦,06W有著一般的流出,以及微弱(小於15節)的垂直風切變(VWS)。

3. 預報理據
A. 和上一報的相比之下,這一報的預報理由沒有明顯的改變。
B. 預料在未來72小時,TS 06W將沿著副高的南至西南側,往西北方向移動. 各個模式對未來48小時的路徑預測完全一致,但是對48小時後的位置,卻有著160浬的偏差。48小時後,各個模式出現分歧,對於06W北移的時間和幅度,存在著明顯的分別。NAVGEM和GFD的預測偏離主流,它們預測06W會先西移,然後出現拋物線型的轉向;可是在流場分析以後得知,NAVGEM的初始場和實際情況大致相近,預測的結果卻是06W快速減弱,並在48小時後消散。預料TS 06W在橫過菲律賓列島以後,會重新增強,並在36小時後達到50-55節的巔峰強度--此時,偏北風帶來的垂直風切變(VWS),以及中國東部上空的副高(STR),會阻礙06W的進一步發展。預料在54小時後,系統會在香港南部登陸,其後受到陸地摩擦和垂直風切變影響而急速減弱。54小時以後,06W會持續減弱,並受到中低層的副高引導,移入內陸。72小時後,系統將會消散。整體而言,我們對JTWC的預測路徑有著很大的信心。
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS
TS 06W TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN LUZON WITH MORE FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 290910Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING (TCB) AND A DEFINED CENTER. BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE TCB EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TS 06W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 22N 125E, AND WEAK (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
WITH A 160 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE
OF THE TURN NORTHWARD. NAVGEM AND GFDN ARE THE SOLE OUTLIERS WITH A
WESTWARD TURN VICE RE-CURVE; HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE FIELDS
INDICATES THAT NAVGEM IS DEPICTING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC STEERING
PATTERN BUT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS
IMMEDIATELY AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO RE-
INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND SHOULD REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36 AT WHICH POINT
INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL STR OVER
EASTERN CHINA WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 54 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HONG
KONG AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
VWS. THERE IS CLEARLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 48
BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT TS 06W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG.
AFTER TAU 54, TS 06W WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNNPS:
現加訂#11的翻譯......不知道現在還有沒有空缺呢??

wusifeng 发表于 2013-6-30 07:01

#08/29-18Z

1、供气象专业人士
2、6小时概况与分析
       热带风暴06W(RUMBIA)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南方约30海里,过去6小时以时速15节向西北方向移动。红外动画卫星加强图像(EIR)显示深对流在西部边缘的海面上而先前的底层环流中心(LLCC)只有零星的深对流。291736Z的AMSU图像表明它有着紧密的卷曲云带(TCB)以及明显的中心。基于上述的EIR和以及AMSU图像,定位的可信度较高。由于系统在陆上无法使用德沃夏克分析,只能依靠苏比克湾站的动画图像分析强度。最初的强度估算是根据最近的AMSU微波影像,定为40节。292000Z的地面观测是TS06W沿副高脊(STR)南侧以时速14节在马尼拉东南方快速移动时测得的。高层分析显示中等的流出(尤其的赤向流出)带来了大体适合的发展环境。之前的冷涡已经转化成鞍型場,垂直风切变(VWS)较低(5-10KTS),随着系统重新入海,预报路径上的高海温将非常适合系统发展。
3、预报理由
A   此次预报原理与前一次没有显著的不同
B   未来72小时TS06W将沿副高脊南到西南侧向西北方向移动。关于登陆(48小时后),各数据保持高度一致,只有大约85海里的误差范围。而各数据对于系统转北的时间和程度有着明显的分歧。NAVGEM和GFDN则是预测继续向西北移动是根据今后副高将在中国内陆重新建立并且强度和范围较大,而其他数据则认为副高较弱从而允许TS06W继续西北行。预计LLCC在进入南中国海后TS06W将快速加强并在36小时后达到巅峰强度55节,从那以后,中国东部副高在高层面为系统北部带来的显强垂直风切变将阻碍其进一步加强。预计48小时后06W在距离香港西南大约100海里的地方登陆,之后受陆地摩擦和强风切影响迅速减弱。对于登陆预测可信度较高,而登陆后(48小时后)存在不确定性。系统将于72小时后在陆上消散,JTWC对于路径预测可信度较高。         

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS OVER OPEN WATER, AND FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE INLAND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
291736Z AMSU IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) AND A
DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND AMSU IMAGERY, IN ADDITION TO
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SUBIC STATION. THERE ARE NO DVORAK
ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION NOTED IN THE RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 292000Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM MANILA IS 14 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
TS 06W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. AN EARLIER TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SINCE DEVOLVED INTO A COL REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW (05-10 KTS). AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER OPEN WATER,
VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A POOL OF HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LEFT-MOST OUTLIER (GFDN), DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL (SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48), WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THAT
TIME. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN NORTHWARD. NAVGEM AND GFDN
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD VICE RE-CURVE, WITH NAVGEM FIELDS
SUGGESTING THIS MODEL IS OVER-BUILDING THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF
THE STR INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE
INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR WILL ALLOW TS 06W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG ITS NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE LLCC ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY 55 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL STR OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND VWS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 48 BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE LANDFALL POSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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风云色變 发表于 2013-6-30 10:48

#09 30/00Z

1丶供气象专业人士
2丶6小时概况与分析

      热带风暴06W\"温比亚\"集结於菲律宾马尼拉以西大约64海里(~119km),过去6小时以时速15节(~28km/h)向西北方向移动。多频卫星图像(MSI)显示深对流整合形成一中心密集云区(CDO), 伴随紧密的卷曲云带(TCB)包围低层环流中心 (LLCC)。


292147Z的SSMIS图像以及菲国苏比克湾的雷达, 均能清楚表明其穿越菲律宾群岛进入南海的路径。基于上述的资料,定位的信心较高。使用德沃夏克分析为30~35节的强度, 但基於微波扫描所呈现的良好结构, 我们将其强度定为40节(~75km/h, 20m/s)。


300000Z的在奥隆阿波的地面观测测得18节(~33km/h, 9m/s)的东风。热带风暴06W正沿副高脊(STR)南侧快速移动的。高层分析显示06W所处环境具有颇佳的流出(尤其赤向流出优越), 发展环境理想。从水汽图动画可见, 06W微弱的极向流出通道正尝试接上位於台湾以东的副热带急流, 这样有助未来的发展。 而东北方向有中等的埀直风切(10~15节)。沿途的海表温度同样是非常理想。





3丶预报理由
A   此次预报原理与前一次没有显着的修订。

B   未来72小时热带风暴06W将沿副高脊南到西南侧向西北方向移动。在过去12小时, 副热带高压脊令06W路径的向西方量相对起原预报增加了不少。这令到预报的登陆地点向西调整了大约55海浬(~100公里)。关于登陆(48小时后),各数据保持高度一致。JGSM 和GFDN偏离主流, 则是预测06w将采取较西路径接近越南。而其他数据则在06w转北的时间及分量有不同意, NAVGEM及GFDN预报06W将探取西北偏西路径, 而甚馀认为副高较弱从而令TS06W出现北转。预计TS06W将快速加强并在36小时后达到巅峰强度55节,从那以后,中国东部副高在高层面为系统北部带来的显强垂直风切变将阻碍其进一步加强。预计48小时后06W在距离香港西南大约155海里(~290km)的地方登陆,之后受陆地摩擦和强风切影响迅速减弱。对于登陆预测可信度较高,而登陆后(48小时后)存在不确定性。系统将于72小时后在陆上消散,JTWC对于路径预测可信度较高。



JTWC/06W/#09/06.30-00Z-Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM
WESTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE TCB IS APPARENT IN A 292147Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AS WELL AS
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SUBIC STATION, WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LLCC HAS NOW TRACKED INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED
DATA. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
HIGHER ESTIMATES FROM AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES AS WELL AS THE STRUCTURE
NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 300000Z SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION
FROM OLONGAPO, PHILIPPINES IS 18 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. TS 06W IS
TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE EQUATORWARD
DIRECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS TRYING TO LINK UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET EAST OF TAIWAN,
WHICH COULD FURTHER IMPROVE THE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE STRENGTH OF THE STR HAS KEPT 06W TRACKING IN
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL POSITION
BY APPROXIMATELY 55 NM. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL (SHORTLY BEFORE
TAU 48). GFDN AND THE JGSM ENSEMBLE AVERAGE ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS,
TAKING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE
OF THE TURN NORTHWARD, WITH NAVGEM AND GFDN TAKING A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK VICE CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
STR. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF NORTHERLY VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL STR OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE
TAU 48 APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND VWS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 48 BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE LANDFALL POSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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