wusifeng 发表于 2013-7-7 22:59

翻译信息表                              
报数            时间               翻译情况                   翻译人            楼层
TCFA      07/1430Z         已翻译(全文)         wusifeng                0
#1             07/18Z             已翻译(全文)         风云色變                1
#2             08/00Z             已翻译(全文)         风向无敌                2
#3             08/06Z             已翻译(全文)         wusifeng                3
#4            08/12Z            已翻译(全文)         phantom_kid          4
#5            08/18Z            已翻译(全文)         wusifeng                5
#6            09/00Z            已翻译(全文)         风云色變                6
#7            09/06Z             已翻译(全文)      风云色變                7
#8            09/12Z             已翻译(全文)      dujuan2003            8
#9            09/18Z             已翻译(全文)      wusifeng                9
#10            10/00Z             已翻译(全文)      风云色變               10
#11            10/06Z             已翻译(全文)      风云色變               11
#12            10/12Z             已翻译(全文)       dujuan2003            12
#13            10/18Z             已翻译(全文)       wusifeng                13
#14            11/00Z             已翻译(全文)      风云色變               14
#15            11/06Z             已翻译(全文)      ygy                     15
#16            11/12Z             已翻译(全文)       dujuan2003            16
#17            11/18Z             已翻译(全文)      wusifeng               17
#18            12/00Z             已翻译(全文)       风云色變                18
#19            12/06Z             已翻译(全文)          ygy                     19
#20            12/12Z             已翻译(全文)          ygy                     20
#21            12/18Z             已翻译(全文)      wusifeng               21
#22            13/00Z             已翻译(全文)      风云色變               22
#23            13/06Z             已翻译(全文)          ygy                     23
#24(FW)                        无需翻译
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
统计:
翻译者       wusifeng    风云色变    dujuan2003   ygy   风向无敌
翻译篇数         7               8                3            4         1
更新时间: 2013年7月13日 21:46:56
说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以協調世界時的作准。
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发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
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TCFA: WTPN21 PGTW 071430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 149.7E TO 19.4N 141.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070802Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 148.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070802Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED
BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 071128Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATES THAT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD, THE LLCC IS
CONSOLIDATING. THE SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO REVEALS STRONGER EASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS TO THE NORTH OF DISTURBANCE, WHICH DYNAMICAL MODEL
FIELDS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC
MODEL FORECAST FIELDS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN BOTH ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081430Z.//
NNNN
TCFA.翻译:1.一个值得注意的热带气旋可能在接下来的6至24小时内在19.2N ,149.7E到19.4N ,141.1E连线的225海里处形成。现有数据不能证明这次编号的热带气旋警告信息发布有效。在该区域内的风速被估计为18-23节。070802Z的卫星图像表明环流中心位于19.4N ,148.4E附近。系统正以6节的速度向偏西方向移动。
2.先前位于19.7N 148.9E附近的对流云团,目前位于19.4N 148.4E附近,大约在关岛北北东方向约420海里。红外卫星加强动画图像(EIR)显示该对流云团拥有一个广泛的低层环流中心(LLCC),070802Z的WINDSAT 37GHZ微波图像显示南半圆的深对流正在巩固底层环流中心(LLCC),北半圆有零星的对流云团。071128Z的 SCAT扫面显示虽然环流非常宽广,但LLCC正在巩固加强。数据预报显示其北部强劲的东风带将被卷入系统。另外,各数据对于未来强度和结构的预报逐步出现分歧。高空分析显示该困扰来自将来的微弱的垂直风切变(5-10节)以及良好的极向流出等有利环境的发展程度。沿途的28-30℃的海表层温度对于系统发展非常适合。目前最大的持续风速和最低海平面气压分别为18-23节和1005mb。基于LLCC的巩固加强以及数据集成预报,未来24小时内发展为热带气旋的几率为高。
3..这次警报将会在081430Z重新发出、升级到警告信息或取消

风云色變 发表于 2013-7-8 00:03

#1 修正 07.07-18Z

世界时7月7日18时(北京时间02时)

1丶供气象专业人士
2丶6小时概况与分析

热带低气压07W集结於塞班岛东北偏北约261海浬(~483km),在过去6小时, 以时速10海浬(~19km/h)向西方移动。

红外光卫星图像(IR)动画显示, 系统正快速整合, 同时对流深度加强, 紧紧其包围低层环流中心。

我们根据红外光卫星图像(IR)以及PGTW作出定位, 信心较低。
而强度分析则是基於PGTW, RJTW, KNES的德法分析。

高层探空数据指出, 系统正位处副热带高压脊(STR)以南12度。伴有轻微至中等的垂直风切。同时, 水汽图显示, 07W拥有良好幅散性流出。

横切面图显示, 该系统原本为一副热带冷涡系统, 但当它移出了原本的区域後, 转化为一有热带特质的气旋。
系统正沿副热带高压的南沿移动,沿途的表面海水温度理想,达28~30℃。

3. 预报理由

A. 这是我们为07W所作的第一份预报理由。

B. 07W将在未来72小时继续受副高引导, 往西北或西北偏西移动。理想的环境将支持它稳歩增强。预计07W将在72小时後左右增强至台风强度。

C. 72小时後, 位於07W以北的副高稍为减弱, 07W的向北分量稍增。由於高空环境及海表温度依然理想, 07W将达到70kt(`130kt/h, 36m/s)的巅峰强度。模式对於未来96小时後的预报均保持一切性, 之後由於中纬度副高的变化而稍稍分歧。

修正: 我们更改了预报理由中C段对各模式的述说。

WDPN31 PGTW 072100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE PGTW
FIX WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE TD IS EXHIBITING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS ORIGINALLY A COLD-CORE   
SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT HAS SINCE ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVED OUT OF ITS SOURCE REGION, AS EVIDENCED ON RECENT SATELLITE
CROSS-SECTION PRODUCTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TD 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION - TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY
TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD DIRECTON AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 70 KNOTS
DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 96.   
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 96;
AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MODEL DISCUSSION IN PARA
3.C.   //
NNNN

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/1307/thread/79_81869_dc13f14e6f8cf65.gif

风向无敌 发表于 2013-7-8 11:28

#2 07.08-00Z


WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH OF
SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS FORMED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID
SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION NOT CAPTURED BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE IMPROVED, ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT
CELLS - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED BY 20 KNOTS,
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
ESTABLISHED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE
STEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AND REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE SYSTEM
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 96.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 96 DUE TO
THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM; AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ON THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

1、供气象专业人员使用
2、6小时概况与分析
   热带风暴07W(SOULIK)位于塞班岛北部大约240海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速13节向偏西方向移动。多光谱卫星动画图像显示:随着底层环流中心(LLCC)类似风眼的结构的形成,该系统继续快速巩固加强。起初的定位是基于以上动画图像,可信度较高。而强度则略高于德沃夏克分析是由于其短暂的快速增强。高空分析显示:系统在微弱到中等(10-20节)的垂直风切变(VWS)的南侧边缘。随着风暴前进的同时,高空气流也在削弱垂直风切变(VWS)。另外得益于系统西北侧和东北侧的两个高空涡,极向和赤向流出都已经有所改善。在水汽动画图像上尤为明显。系统将在由南向北的副高脊(STR)引导气流下沿着温暖的海温(28-30℃)前进。
3、预报理由
A除了系统的巅峰强度被调强了20节,其他预报原理与前一报没有明显区别。
B在72小时内,TS07W沿着副高脊边缘向西到西偏北方向移动。随着上面提到的双流出通道的打开以及流出稳定而猛烈的加强,环境将变得可观。预计TS07W将在36小时后达到TY级别而在72小时后达到90节。
C在72小时后,随着中纬度短波槽的打击副高将有轻微的减弱,TS SOULIK的极向(北)分量将加大。由于垂直风切变和上述提到的短波槽带来的下沉影响,该风暴将在预报末期开始减弱。各数据集成保持高度一直,但在96小时后有分歧。由于合理的预报机制,96小时前的路径预报可信度较高。由于96小时后中纬度大槽对副高影响具有不确定性,预报的可信度较低。

wusifeng 发表于 2013-7-8 19:45

#3 07.08-06Z

1. 供气象专业人员使用
2. 6小时概况与分析
   热带风暴07W(SOULIK)位于硫磺岛南到东南方大约367海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速19节向偏西方向移动。多光谱卫星动画图像显示:随着底层环流中心(LLCC)类似风眼的结构的形成,该系统继续快速巩固加强。起初的定位是基于080535Z 的SSMI微波图像可信度较高,该图像显示了一个完整的微波风眼。而强度是根据 PGTW和RJTD的德沃夏克强度分析定为45节。高空分析显示:系统在副高脊南侧偏15°方向,有微弱到中等(10-20节)的垂直风切变(VWS)。另外得益于系统西北侧和东南侧的两个高空冷涡,极向和赤向流出都已经有了改善。冷涡在水汽动画图像上尤为明显。系统将在由南北向副高脊(STR)引导气流下沿着温暖的海温(28-30℃)前进。
3. 预报理由
A. 此次预报原理与上一次没有明显的区别
B. 在72小时内,TS07W沿着副高脊边缘向西到西偏北方向移动。随着上面提到的双流出通道的打开以及流出稳定而猛烈的加强,环境将变得可观。预计TS07W将在36小时后达到TY级别而在72小时后达到90节。
C. 在72小时后,随着中纬度短波槽的打击副高将有轻微的减弱,TS SOULIK的西北分量将加大。由于垂直风切变和上述提到的短波槽带来的下沉影响,该风暴将在预报末期开始减弱。各数据集成保持高度一直,但在72小时后有分歧。由于合理的预报机制,72小时前的路径预报可信度较高。由于72小时后中纬度槽对副高影响具有不确定性,预报的可信度较低。

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 080535Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AS THE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS TWO TUTT CELLS, ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE, HAVE AIDED IN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE TUTT CELLS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE STEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24 AND REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THE END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE
SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM;
AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

phantom_kid 发表于 2013-7-8 23:41


WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
081035Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE AS TWO TUTT CELLS, ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE, HAVE PERSISTED AND AIDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE TUTT CELLS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE STEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 12 AND REACH 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THE END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE
SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM;
AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

1.供气象从业者参考
2.过去6小时概述与分析
热带风暴07W(苏力),位于硫磺岛南南东方向350海里处,在过去6小时中以10节的速度向西移动。动态红外云图显示系统继续迅速地巩固,螺旋云带紧紧的围绕在一个建立在LLCC附近的、具有风眼特征的形态体附近。定位依据是081035Z SSMIS的微波图像。因为微波图像显示出一个完善的微波风眼特征,故定位准确度高。强度估计值为55节,和PGTW、RJTD的德沃夏克法估计值一致。高层环流分析显示系统位于高压脊轴线以南12度处,附近有轻度至中度(10-20节)的垂直风切变。另外,极向和东西向的流出持续改善,因为有两个持续存在的TUTT单体,一个位于西北方,一个位于东南方,为系统提供高层流出。TUTT单体在动态水汽图动画上能清晰可见。热带风暴正沿深厚副热带高压脊南侧边沿的温暖洋面(28-30摄氏度)上方移动。
3.预报缘由
A.与之前的预报缘由并无变化
B.由副热带高压脊引导,TS 07W将在未来72小时内继续向西-西北西方向移动。良好的环境将使系统稳定地,甚至是迅速地增强。TS 07W预计将在未来12小时内增强为台风,并在72小时后到达95节的强度。
C.72小时后,热带风暴苏力将开始增加向北的分量,因为起引导作用的副热带高压脊受一从西北方接近的中纬度槽影响而减弱。在预测期的末期,热带风暴将因为增强的风切变和靠近的中纬度槽的下沉气流而逐渐减弱。数值预报的结果是72小时内高度一致,而之后则开始产生分歧。因为完善而明确的引导机制,对72小时内的路径预测信心较高;在那之后,因为对中纬度槽对起引导作用的高压脊会产生何等程度的影响不确定,对路径的预测准确度也相对较低。

wusifeng 发表于 2013-7-9 08:19

#05 07.08-18Z

1. 供气象专业人员使用
2. 6小时概况与分析
   TY07W(SOULIK)位于硫磺岛以南大约325海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速10节向西北偏西方向移动。目前的定位是基于PGTW和RJTD的卫星定位,强度是根据德沃夏克T4.0对应65节。红外卫星动态图像显示深对流持续环绕在完整的环流中,TY07W将沿副高脊(STR)南侧向西偏北方向移动。系统在微弱的垂直风切变(VWS)和中等的流出等有利环境下发展,流出是由西北侧和偏东侧两个高空冷涡带来。在这种良好的高空环境和温暖的海温下,系统在过去24小时快速的从30节提升至65节。
3. 预报理由
A. 此次预报原理与上一次没有明显区别
B. 未来72小时,系统将在副高的影响下向偏西转西偏北向移动。在温暖的海温、微弱的垂直风切变和适合的高空流出的支持下,系统在未来24小时稳定而快速的增强。以后,由于流出的减弱将减缓增强速度并在48小时后加强到105节。
C. 在中国中东部中纬度槽的影响下,沿副高脊的引导气流将使TY07W转向西北方向移动。由于减弱的高空流出、增强的垂直风切变和登陆的影响,系统将在未来72-120小时逐渐减弱。由于明确的引导机制和合理的预报数据预报,72小时内的路径预报可信度较高。而在72小时后由于引导气流形势被打破和各机构的分歧导致路径预报可信度较低。一些模式包括KMET、NOGAPS以及GFDN支持TY07W往偏西移动直至登陆台湾。而HWRF、日本台风预报集成以及NCEP数据集成支持登陆中国南部。由于预测副高形势的改变将提早于预期,GFS支持更早的极向转弯。当前的预报支持各数据的共识结果以及前面提到的HWRF等数据对于未来路径趋势预报的一致共识。
WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHWARD OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM THE SAME
REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF AN
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. TY 07W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WITH OUTFLOW PERSISTING TOWARD A PAIR OF TUTT CELLS, ONE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ONE TO THE EAST. THESE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER HAVE SUPPORTED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM
30 TO 65 KNOTS, OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 07W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, AND A CONTINUATION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, DECREASING
OUTFLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 105 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 48.
   C. TY 07W SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 DUE TO
DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
PASSAGE OVER LAND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A
STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU
72, UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE, AND A COMMENSURATE SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. SEVERAL
MODELS, INCLUDING THE UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN, SHOW TY 07W
CONTINUING GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. A
GROUPING INCLUDING HWRF, THE JAPANESE TYPHOON ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI. GFS DEPICTS AN EARLIER POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE HWRF/JAPANESE ENSEMBLE/NCEP ENSEMBLE GROUPING GIVEN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OVER THE PAST FOUR
RUNS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.//
NNNN

风云色變 发表于 2013-7-9 11:23

#06 07.09-00Z

世界时9日0时(北京时间8时)
1. 供气象专业人员参考
2. 6小时概况与分析

台风07W(苏力)集结於硫磺岛以南大约315海里(583km)的海面上,过去6小时以时速11节(20km/h) 向西方向移动。

目前的定位是基于PGTW和RJTD的卫星定位,以及082231Z TRMM的底层扫描, 顯示了一清晰的底层风眼结构。


该系统强度是根据PGTW, RJTD和KNES的德沃夏克分析法, 分析出75节(140km/h, 40m/s)。

台风苏力将沿副高脊(STR)南侧大致向西方向移动。在过去六小时, 系统在微弱的垂直风切变(VWS),理想的海温, 和由西北侧和东南侧两个高空冷涡带来良好的流出等有利环境下快速发展。多频卫星图像动画顯示其结构改善, 持续有深对流包围着一个发展中的风眼。

3. 预报理由


A. 此次预报原理与上一次没有明显区别 。


B. 未来72小时,台风苏力将在副高的影响下向偏西至西北偏西向移动。在温暖的海温丶微弱的垂直风切变和良的高空流出的支持下,系统在未来24小时稳定而快速的增强。以后,由于流出的减弱将减缓增强速度并在48小时后加强到105节(55m/s,195km/s)。 由於目前分析颇为准确以及各数值均有良好共识, 对於未来小时内的预报信心较高。而48小时後, 各模式开始稍为出现分歧, 而JTWC的预报是采用各模式的平均值计算。


C. 在中国中东部中纬度槽的影响下,沿副高脊的引导气流将使台风07W转向西北方向移动。由于减弱的高空流出丶增强的垂直风切变和登陆的影响,系统将在未来72-120小时逐渐减弱。由于明确的引导机制和合理的预报数据预报,72小时内的路径预报可信度较高。而在72小时后由于引导气流形势被打破和各机构的分歧导致路径预报可信度较低。一些模式包括UKMET丶NOGAPS丶GFDN以及ECMWF支持台风苏力往偏西移动直至登陆台湾。而HWRF丶日本台风预报集成以及NCEP数据集成支持登陆上海以南地区。由于预测副高形势的改变将提早于预期,GFS支持更早的极向转弯。当前的预报支持各数据的共识结果以及前面提到的HWRF等数据对于未来路径趋势预报的一致共识。


WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHWARD OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AND A 082231Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEAR LOW-LEVEL EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER,
AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 07W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, AND A CONTINUATION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
DECREASING OUTFLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY, AND BOTH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIE NEAR THE CENTERLINE OF AN EVENLY-
DISTRIBUTED FORECAST SET.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER LAND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN
THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A COMMENSURATE SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. SEVERAL
MODELS, INCLUDING THE UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND ECMWF, CONTINUE TO
SHOW TY 07W TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL
BETWEEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAIWAN. A GROUPING INCLUDING HWRF, THE
JAPANESE TYPHOON ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW THE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF TAIWAN AND MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI. GFS DEPICTS AN EARLIER POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF/JAPANESE ENSEMBLE/NCEP ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS/GFDN/ECMWF GROUPINGS GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK OVER THE PAST FOUR RUNS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.//
NNNN
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风云色變 发表于 2013-7-9 19:51

#07 07.09-06Z

世界时9日6时(北京时间14时)
1.供气象专业人员参考
2. 6小时概况与分析

台风07W(苏力)集结於嘉手纳空军基地(日本冲绳那霸附近)东南偏南约752海里(583km)的海面上,过去6小时以时速10节(19km/h) 向西北偏西方向移动。

多频卫星图像(MSI)动画显示, 系统持续爆发增强, 在过去24小时, 中心最大风速加强了40节(21m/s, 75km/h), 并且凭藉着优越的幅散性流出(由东北侧冷个冷涡及一个东侧的对流层上部槽(TUTT)提供), 形成了一只直径45海里(85km)的风眼。

基於PGTW德沃夏克分析法的T5.0, 分析出90节的强度(165km/h, 46m/s), 但我们只将强度上调为85节(155km/h, 44m/s)。

对於目前定位及系统对态信心较高, 虽然MSI图像显示中心略有晃动。

最近的高层探空指, 副高脊在北纬30度上略有西伸, 台风苏力将沿东西向的副高脊(STR)南侧向西北偏西移动。

3. 预报理由

A. 此次预报原理与上一次没有明显区别 。

B. 未来72小时,台风苏力将在副高的影响下继续向西北偏西向移动。各模式均在48小时内保持良好一切性,对於07W对於冲绳接近点(CPA)(11/23Z, 北京12/07), 一共有165海浬(305km)的分歧。各模式均倾向一个较为偏西的路径。 GFS, 亦在过去几报内将07W的路径西调, 指出位於蒙苦以南的中纬度短波槽, 不会对副高造成太大打击, 亦使07W在72小时後, 没有出现大幅度转向。 台风苏力将继续增强, 直到48小时後, 到达115kt(215km/h, 60m/s, CAT4下限) 的巅峰。

C. 在延伸期预报,各模式共分成两派。NAVGEM, GFDN 及UKMET显示其将采将偏西路径, 横过台湾并进入中国。而其他模式(JGSM, JENS, GFS, HWRF, COTC, ECMWF AND AEMN)则显示了一个较真实的路径, 当07w移至副高西南边沿的时候, 引导气流将使台风07W转向西北方向移动。我们的路径预报继续采取各模式的中线, 接近於CONW。虽然对於未来60小时内的预报信心较高, 对更长远的预报则信心较低。之後由于增强的垂直风切变和登陆的影响,系统将在未来60小时後逐渐减弱, 显示建立的副高同时带来了极向流出。台风苏力将在96小时後左右登陆中国, 并在120小时後迅速减弱。

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 752 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY (40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND HAS NOW FORMED A 45-
NM EYE DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONG TUTT TO THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER AND IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND RECENT MOTION ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WOBBLE IS EVIDENT IN THE MSI.
RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE RYUKYUS AND INTO EASTERN CHINA ALONG
ABOUT 30N LATITUDE. TY 07W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 165 NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
CPA TO OKINAWA (11/23Z) BUT, IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN PARTICULAR, GFS HAS SHIFTED TO A
MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS: ANALYSIS OF THE GFS
500 MB FIELDS SHOW THAT PASSAGE OF A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF MONGOLIA, WILL NOT CREATE A
BREAK IN THE STR SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SHARP RE-CURVATURE NEAR TAU
72. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS, DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
TWO DISTINCT GROUPS. NAVGEM, GFDN AND UKMET INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS TAIWAN THEN INTO CHINA WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
(JGSM, JENS, GFS, HWRF, COTC, ECMWF AND AEMN) INDICATE A MORE
REALISTIC POLEWARD TURN OVER EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE LATTER GROUP AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE SPLIT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 60. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 60 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL STR
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 07W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER CHINA AFTER TAU 96 AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TAU 120.//
NNNN

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dujuan2003 发表于 2013-7-9 20:07

#8 07.09-12Z

1. 供氣象人員使用

2. 6小時總結和分析
颱風(TY)07W(蘇力)集結在嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏東約678浬,在過去六小時,它以12節的速度往西北西移動。紅外線(IR)衛星圖像動畫顯示,系統正在快速地整合,並有一直徑30浬的渾圓風眼。在過去24小時,TY 07W快速增強,強度從55節增強至目前的95節,這是基於德沃夏克法推算出來的強度的平均值(從90節到102節)。此數值與最近的自動分析值吻合。基於紅外線雲圖上的風眼,以及37 Ghz微波圖像上顯示的風眼結構,我們對目前的定位有著很大的信心。基於091130Z的ASCAT圖像和091024Z的SSMIS風力分析產品,我們認為系統的34節風力半徑(烈風圈半徑)稍為擴大,估計北半圓的烈風圈半徑約有140浬。07W週邊的環境狀況仍然十分適合其發展,受惠於系統西北面的兩個TUTT(熱帶對流層上部槽)和系統東面的另一個TUTT,其徑向流出良好。最新的探空數據顯示,有一強大的副高(STR)在北緯30度附近西伸,覆蓋著琉球群島和中國東部。TY 07W沿著東西向的副高南側,大致往西北西移動。

3. 預報理據
A. 和上一報的相比之下,這一報的預報理由沒有明顯的改變。
B. 預料在未來72小時,TY 07W會沿著深厚的副高,繼續往西北西移動。數值模式對48小時後的路徑有著緊密的共識,但是在此之後便出現分歧。目前各個模式對於07W與沖繩之間的最接近距離(11/23Z),有著140浬的差別,但是整體而言,它們皆報出較為偏西的路徑。值得留意的是,GFS在過去數報中報出的路徑,有更為偏西的趨勢:GFS對500hPa流場的分析顯示,目前在蒙古以南的一道微弱中緯度短波槽,其強度在未來72小時內不足以使副高斷開,並導致07W出現大幅度轉向。受惠於周邊的環境因素,TY 07W將在未來48小時繼續增強,並達到115節的巔峰強度。
C. 在延伸預報期以內,各個數值模式分為兩個明顯的派別。NAVGEM、GFDN和UKMET皆報出較為偏西的路徑,橫過台灣、並移入中國;而大部分的模式(JGSM, JENS, GFS, HWRF, COTC, ECMWF和AEMN)則報出較為合乎現實的路徑,在移至中國東部時,沿著副高的西南側轉向。JTWC的預報路徑繼續支持後者,在定位上與多個模式的共識相近。由於各個模式的預測路徑出現分歧,儘管我們對60小時以內的路徑有著很大的信心,整體而言,我們對JTWC的預報路徑的信心還是偏低。預料在48小時後,中國東部和東海有一副高建立,其偏北風會導致垂直風切變的增加,使TY 07W有所減弱。預料TY 07W會在大約96小時後在中國登陸,並在120小時後快速減弱。

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 30-NM ROUND
EYE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TY 07W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM 55
KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR EYE AS WELL AS RECENT 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WHICH DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE ABOUT 140 NM OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BASED ON A 091130Z
ASCAT IMAGE AND A 091024Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONG
TUTT TO THE EAST. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE RYUKYUS AND INTO EASTERN
CHINA ALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE. TY 07W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 140 NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
CPA TO OKINAWA (11/23Z) BUT, IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN PARTICULAR, GFS HAS SHIFTED TO A
MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS: ANALYSIS OF THE GFS
500 MB FIELDS SHOW THAT PASSAGE OF A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF MONGOLIA, WILL NOT CREATE A
BREAK IN THE STR SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SHARP RE-CURVATURE NEAR TAU
72. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS, DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
TWO DISTINCT GROUPS. NAVGEM, GFDN AND UKMET INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS TAIWAN THEN INTO CHINA WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
(JGSM, JENS, GFS, HWRF, COTC, ECMWF AND AEMN) INDICATE A MORE
REALISTIC POLEWARD TURN OVER EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE LATTER GROUP AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE SPLIT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 60. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL STR
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 07W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER CHINA NEAR TAU 96 AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TAU 120.//
NNNNPS:
1. 怎麼06W的翻譯帖還未加分......
2. 現加訂#12的翻譯.......現在還有空缺嗎?

wusifeng 发表于 2013-7-10 08:10

#09 07.09-18Z

1.供气象专业人士使用
2.6小时概况与分析
   TY06W(SOULIK)位于KADENA AB东到东南方方向大约626海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速9节向西偏北方向移动。基于091732Z的PGTW卫星风眼定位,定位可信度较高。根据当前的德沃夏克T值分析以及自动分析得到的T6.0,对应的强度为115节。过去6小时的红外卫星动态图像显示:07W拥有一个直径为22海里的清晰风眼,它继续在副高脊(STR)的引导气流下向西偏北方向移动。由于沿途的温暖的海温以及系统西北侧和偏东侧两个高空槽为其带来极佳的流出,TY07W将继续快速增强。


3.   预报理由
A.基于当前强度变化以及适合的环境,预报原理将在短期内有调整。在路径预报方面,考虑到系统的强度大以及引导气流增加了纬向的分力,将有轻微的极向(北)改变。
B.在深厚的副高引导下,系统将在未来72小时继续向西偏北向移动。各数据预报集成路径有140海里的误差包络线——从台湾中北部到台湾以北沿岸70海里处的误差范围。而COAMPS-TC是一个极端例子,它预测07W在强大的副高引导下有极向的转弯。沿途良好的高空环境以及温暖的海温允许07W在72小时内加强到强台风上限或超强台风下限。
C. 在延长预报期内,07W将在副高脊西南侧引导气流下出现极向转弯,并可能在登陆中国东部前先登陆台湾北部。在预报期内的强度趋势将和台湾地形影响有关。当前的强度预报是假设以强台风接近中国东部前(在未来72-96小时)系统中心没有登陆台湾岛,在这种情况下减小了台湾地形对其强度影响。基于各数据分析和良好的预报机制,在预报期内机构对路径预报具有高度一致性。然而,未来对路径的预报会有轻微的调整——系统可能会登陆北台湾,在接下来的预报期内会出现更加偏西的路径

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A 091732Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES
OF 6.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A CLEAR, 22NM DIAMETER EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY
07W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAVE ENABLED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. GIVEN RECENT INTENSITY CHANGES AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE
NEAR-TERM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD
TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR A STRONGER AND MORE ZONALLY-
ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FROM MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A 140
NM ENVELOPE EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TAIWAN TO APPROXIMATELY 70
NM OFFSHORE, TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN, AROUND TAU 72. COAMPS-TC IS
THE LONE OUTLIER, DEPICTING A POLEWARD TURN THAT IS UNREALISTIC
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL ALLOW TY 07W
TO MAINTAIN STRONG TYPHOON OR MINIMAL SUPER-TYPHOON INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE,
AND MAY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TAIWAN BEFORE EVENTUALLY HEADING
INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE INTENSITY TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
DEPEND UPON INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN\'S TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, AND INTENSITY
CHANGE WILL BE MINIMALLY IMPACTED BY LAND INTERACTION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AS A STRONG TYPHOON IN EASTERN CHINA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU
96. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, FURTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE TRACK FORECAST - INCLUDING POSSIBLE SHIFTS TOWARD LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN TAIWAN - ARE POSSIBLE DURING UPCOMING FORECAST CYCLES GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD-ORIENTED
TRACK.//
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