wusifeng 发表于 2013-8-17 10:33

翻译信息表:
报数                  时间                     翻译情况                翻译者            楼层
TCFA             08.16-20Z            已翻译(全文)      wusifeng            0
#1                08.17-00Z            已翻译(全文)      风云色變            1
#2                08.17-06Z            已翻译(全文)      风云色變            2
#3                08.17-12Z            已翻译(全文)      dujuan2003            3
#4                08.17-18Z               已翻译(全文)       wusifeng            4
#5                08.18-00Z               已翻译(全文)       风云色變            5
#6                08.18-06Z               已翻译(全文)       wusifeng            6
#7                08.18-12Z               已翻译(全文)   dujuan2003            7
#8                08.18-18Z               已翻译(全文)       wusifeng            8
#9                08.19-00Z               已翻译(全文)      唐明皇                9
#10            08.19-06Z               已翻译(全文)       风云色變             10
#11            08.19-12Z               已翻译(全文)   dujuan2003         11
#12            08.19-18Z               已翻译(全文)   040813云娜         12
#13            08.20-00Z               已翻译(全文)         fg45                   13   
#14            08.20-06Z               已翻译(全文)       风云色變            14
#15            08.20-12Z               已翻译(全文)      loppyname            15
#16            08.20-18Z               已翻译(全文)      wusifeng            17
#17            08.21-00Z               已翻译(全文)      loppyname            16
#18            08.21-06Z               已翻译(全文)      wusifeng            18
#19            08.21-12Z               已翻译(全文)      dujuan2003            19
#20(FW)       08.21-18Z                   无需翻译            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
翻译统计:
翻译者      风云色變      wusifeng    dujuan2003   唐明皇    fg45   loppyname   040813云娜
翻译篇数      5                      6               4                1         1            2                   1
更新时间:2013年8月22日 06:58:04说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国东南沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以協調世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。 组织规则:
1.默认开帖人为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表。有多人开贴,同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
2.为避免盲目开帖的情况,鼓励更多有志于翻译报文的坛友加入,开帖人须至少翻译一篇报文,否则开帖奖励只加2威望。
加分规则:为鼓励翻译,对翻译贴加分可适当宽松。
1、开贴加分:5威望
2、组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值1,维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短再加贡献值2威望3~8。
3、内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-12,要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5。单个台风,翻译5报以上再加贡献值5,翻译10报以上再加贡献值10。
TCFA原文:
WTPN21 PGTW 162000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 123.3E TO 23.1N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161632Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.1N 123.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
123.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA (ROIG). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A
161718Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN
INDICATES A SIMILAR STRUCTURE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172000Z.
//
NNNN


TCFA翻译:
1.未来6~24小时,在22.0N 123.3E至23.1N 126.7E连线两侧的135海里范围内,将有显著热带气旋发展。现有数据未能完全支持这次警报。该区风速被预测为18至23节。161632Z的METSAT图像显示其环流中心位于22.1N 123.6E。系统正以5节时速向偏东南方向移动。
2. 备注: 先前位于22.3N 123.1E的对流目前被定位在22.1N 123.6E,即石垣岛南到西南方大约142海里处。最新红外增强动态卫星图像(EIR)显示:深对流持续覆盖底层环流中心(LLCC),LLCC正在巩固加强。161718Z 的AMSU-B微波图像显示零星对流云带正在卷入LLCC。 另外,来自台湾的雷达动画也显示其南半圈有零星对流结构发展。最新的海平面风场扫描显示LLCC结构完整,系统南侧的环流下具有20-25节的风力。高层分析显示系统周围的发展环境正在改善:幅散性流出良好,垂直风切变(VWS)正在减弱。预计系统最大持续风力为18-23节,最低海平面气压为1000MB。由于LLCC的巩固加强,未来24小时有明显热带气旋发展的概率较高。
3.该警报将在172000Z重新发布, 升级或取消。
<br />

风云色變 发表于 2013-8-17 12:35

#1 17/00Z

1.供气象专业人士参考使用
2. 6小时总结和分析
西北太平洋热带低压十二号 (12W), 集结於嘉手纳空军基地(位於冲绳主岛内)西南偏南大约 361海浬(667公里), 过去6小时以时速12海浬(22公里/小时)向东南方向移动。多频卫星扫描图像(MSI) 指显示其低层环流中心卷入深对流云带并同时巩固。由SSMIS系列卫星於昨日23时39分所拍摄的微波扫描影像显示虽然螺旋云带零碎, 但能够包围12W的南半圆。根据多频卫星图像及上述的微波扫描影响作出定位, 定位信心中等。基於PGTW和RJTD两家机构所提供的德克夏沃分析法结果, 评估目前强度为25节(约45公里/小时, 13米/秒). 高空探测分析指出11W正处於副热带高压脊的北方, 环境良好, 流出强烈, 垂直风切变微弱(5~10节)





3. 预报理由
A 这是12W的第一报,并为系统设立预报理由。
B. 热带低压12W 正沿副热带高压脊北方移动。预计12W将与邻近的热带低压13W发生直接互动(DCI,藤原效应 ) 。而现时热带低压13W正位於12W的东北方约453 海浬(约839公里)。预计热带低压12W将在未来24小时向东方移动, 然後续渐转为东北方移动, 进行圆周活动, 并在未来72小时左右转向西方移动。同时随着13W开始从较北位置掉向西南方移动, 藤原效应慢慢结束。并在馀下的预报期内续渐减弱。 热带低气压12W将在未来12小时, 即在藤原效应开始之前增强至30节, 到达热带风暴强度。随着12W转向西方移动, 其将增强至50节。由於各模式均有中等程度的分歧,加上藤原效应使其未来路向扑朔迷离, JTWC预报信心较低。
C. 在预报延伸期, 预计热带低压12W将向西北偏西方向移动并在72~120小时之间与13W合并。两者合体後将增强至台风强度。由于直接气旋互动(DCI)的不确定性和与 12W 的距离,数值模式对预报路径有分歧;所以我们对预测信心度低。此外,由于预期互旋情况将会发生,预料数值模式难以对于未来路径和强度预测保持一致。
WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
DEFINED LLCC. A 162339Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BANDING
FEATURE IS FRAGMENTED, BUT DOES WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE IMPROVED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR AXIS. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) WITH THE NEIGHBORING TD 13W THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY 453 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 12W
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN
THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY CURVE COMPLETELY BACK TO THE WEST IN A
CYCLONIC MOTION BY TAU 72. MEANWHILE 13W WILL COMPLETE THE CYCLONIC
TURN BEGINNING FROM THE NORTH AND CURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE BEGINNING THE CYCLONIC TURN. AS
TD 12W ROUNDS THE CURVE BACK TO THE WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW AS
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAYBE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE DCI PROPERLY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT MERGES WITH TD 13W BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
120. BOTH TD 12W AND 13W ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH UPON MERGING BY TAU 120. THE LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LEAVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF DCI ANTICIPATED IN THIS SCENARIO, IT IS EXPECTED
THAT GLOBAL MODELS WILL STRUGGLE TO AGREE IN FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY.//
NNNNhttp://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/1308/thread/79_82130_d616a39e513c935.gif

风云色變 发表于 2013-8-17 18:25

#02 17/06Z

1.供气象专业人士参考使用

2. 6小时总结和分析

西北太平洋热带低压十二号 (12W), 集结於嘉手纳空军基地(位於冲绳主岛内)西南偏南大约 382海浬(约707公里), 过去6小时以时速10海浬(19公里/小时)向东南方向移动。

多频卫星图像(MSI)动画 指显示其低层环流中心的西侧和南侧卷入更多深对流云带并同时巩固, 但形态仍然狭长。这在TRMM系列卫星於17日03时32分所拍摄的微波扫描(37吉赫)影像亦显示得清清楚楚。





根据多频卫星图像及上述的微波扫描作出定位, 由於低层环流中心形态狭长, 定位信心较低。基於系统结构有所巩固, 目前评估强度提升至30节(约55公里/小时, 15米/秒).稍为高於所有机构所提供的德克夏沃分析法结果。

高空探测分析指出11W正处於副热带高压脊(赤道反气旋)的北方, 环境理想, 赤向流出强烈, 垂直风切变微弱(5~10节) 。12W正沿位於其南方的副热带高压脊(赤反)移动。




3. 预报理由

A. 此预报理由与上报无异。

B. 预计热带低压12W 将沿南方的副热带高压脊(即赤道反气旋)往东方移动。36小时後, 系统将陷入南北两个副高(指副高和赤反)之的的鞍形场。48小时後随着北方的副高重新建立, 加上其与邻近的热带低压13W发生直接互动(DCI,藤原效应 ), 向西量大幅增加 。由於身处环境良好, 具有微弱的垂直风切变与良好的流出, 预计12W将增强, 虽然13W可能会创造一些不利条件, 降低强度。



C. 在预报延伸期, 预计热带低压12W将与13W产生互动(DCI,藤原效应), 并在未来120小时左右与13W合并。120小时後两者合体後将续渐巩固并缓慢增强至台风强度。由于直接气旋互动(DCI)的不确定性和与 12W 的距离,数值模式对预报路径有分歧;一些模式显示12W将成主导系统, 为13W带来不良的环境, 导致13W减弱所以我们对预测信心度低。

▲黄色=12W, 绿色=13WWDPN32 PGTW 170900


MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, YET SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 170332Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR TO
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD
12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36 THE STEERING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ALONG WITH MOTION INDUCED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH NEIGHBORING TD 13W, SHOULD DRIVE THE
SYSTEM WEST. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.ALTHOUGH, THE
PROXIMITY AND INTENSITY OF TD 13W COULD CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST.
   C. TD 12W IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TD 13W IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO EACH OTHER BY TAU 120. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF TD 13W, AND THE DCI, AS TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS HAVE BECOME
CLEAR. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONTINUED DCI WHILE SOME
SEEM TO INDICATE THAT TD 12W WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION IN
THIS SCENARIO AND CALL FOR TD 13W TO WEAKEN AS TD 12W CREATES AN
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO THIS.//
NNNN

dujuan2003 发表于 2013-8-17 21:50

#3 08.17-12Z

1. 供氣象人員使用

2. 6小時總結和分析
熱帶低氣壓12W(TWELVE)集結在嘉手納空軍基地之西南南約382浬,在過去6小時,它以10節的速度往東南東移動。紅外線衛星圖像動畫顯示,其低層環流中心(LLCC)被一大片深厚對流覆蓋著,而系統南側的對流已變得深厚。171054Z的SSMIS 91GHz局部微波影像,以及171301Z的AMSU-B微波影像,皆顯示12W的LLCC仍然清晰可見,但是在過去數小時,其南面的對流稍有減弱,組織開始轉差。基於紅外線雲圖動畫(IR LOOP)和以上的微波影像,我們對其始定位的信心為中等。基於較高端的德法分析估算的強度(25-30節),我們把其初始強度評為30節。高空分析指出,系統身在副高(STR)脊場的北面,附近的環境狀況為中等--因為其西北面的冷渦限制了系統的流出,使垂直風切變稍為上升至中等程度(10-20節)。目前TD 12W正沿著其南面的中低層副高移動。

3. 預報理據
A. 和上一報的預報理由相同。
B. 預料在未來36小時,TD 12W會沿著副高脊場東移。36小時後,系統身在兩個脊場之間(現時引導12W的副高脊場,以及在系統北面建立的另一脊場),此時引導氣流會變得微弱。預料在48小時後,北面脊場的逐漸建立,以及與另一氣旋(TD 13W)之間的直接互動(DCI/藤原效應),會使12W加速西移。預料在預報期內,隨著高空冷渦的消散,12W週遭的環境變得有利(良好的流出、垂直風切變微弱),使系統有所增強。可是TD 13W的強度,以及它與12W之間的距離,會使12W日後的發展受限。
C. 在延伸預報期內,TD 12W會繼續與TD 13W產生互動,直至96小時後與13W合併為止。此後,系統會沿著其北面的脊場,繼續往西北西移動。雖然各個數值模式皆認為12W會朝逆時針方向移動,並出現西折路徑,可是它們對其西折幅度和速度有著很大的分歧。TD 13W預報上的不確定因素,也為TD 12W帶來很大影響。基於以上的巨大分歧,我們對目前預測(與各個模式的共識相近)的信心為低。
WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME OBSCURED BY A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHEY HAS DEEPENED. A 171054Z
PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH A 171301Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC CONTINUE TO REMAIN DEFINED BUT THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BROKEN AND LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STEERING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ALONG WITH MOTION INDUCED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH NEIGHBORING TD 13W, SHOULD ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM WEST. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY AND INTENSITY OF TD 13W, WHICH
COULD HAMPER THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS.
   C. TD 12W IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TD 13W IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO TD 13W BY TAU 96. AFTER
WHICH, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE
IS LARGE VARIANCE IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TD 13W FORECAST COULD ALSO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TD 12W. DUE
TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

wusifeng 发表于 2013-8-18 08:37

#4 08.17-18Z

1、供气象专业人士使用
2、6小时概况与分析
      热带低压(TD)12W位于嘉手纳空军基地偏南方大约385海里处,过去6小时以时速3节向东偏南方向移动。红外增强动态卫星图像(EIR)显示深对流覆盖底层环流中心(LLCC),系统南侧对流继续扩展。一张171926Z的SSMI微波图像和一张171815Z的部分TRMM微波图像则显示对流深深覆盖LLCC,但南侧对流保持破碎状态,顶多只能算零星对流。最初定位是根据EIR图像以及前面提到的微波图像,定位可信度中等。系统30节的强度估计的基于PGTW、RJTD和KNES的德沃夏克强度分析。高层分析显示系统在一副高南侧,发展环境中等适合:系统西北侧的高空低压限制了流出,垂直风切变有所增强为中等大小(10-20节)。当前TD 12W在副高中低层引导下前进。
3、预报理由
A   此次预报原理与前一次无异
B   预计未来36小时,TD 12W在副高南侧引导下向偏东方向移动。36小时后,由于系统来到两个高压之间的位置(一个在系统南侧,另一个新建的高压在北侧),偏东引导气流将减弱。直到48小时后,系统北侧的副高膨胀并将主导系统加速向西前进。强度方向,预计在此预报期内高空低压将逐渐减弱,届时将改善TD 12W的高层流出和垂直风切变,允许系统进一步加强。随着西北侧13W的减弱,两者之间的藤原作用也将逐渐降低,它在短期内对12W的路径影响也将减弱。
C   在延长预报期上,预计TD 12W继续在北侧副高牵引下向西偏北方向移动。在达到台湾北侧海岸前系统将达到55节的巅峰强度,在靠近中国东部前,由于陆地的影响12W将逐渐减弱。虽然动态数据模式对系统转向偏西方向移动的预报逐步趋于一致,但对偏西的程度和移动时速的预报仍存在很大的不确定性。由于数据结果的巨大分歧,JTWC采用接近数据共识结果的预报可信度较低。

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD, WHILE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEEPENED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171926Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH A PARTIAL 171815Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE LLCC, BUT THE CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH REMAINS BROKEN AND RESEMBLES FRAGMENTED BANDING AT
BEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TD
12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
STEERING INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND A BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND SHOULD ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH TD 13W TO THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING,
STEERING INDUCED BY DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) COULD WEAKLY
INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W
IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THEN WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF CHINA. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC
TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT
AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

风云色變 发表于 2013-8-18 11:17

#05 18/00Z

1丶供气象专业人士使用
2丶6小时概况与分析

热带低压(TD)2W集结於嘉手纳空军基地[注1]偏南方大约373海里(約691公里)处,过去6小时以时速8节(15公里/小時)向东方移动。

多频卫星图像动画(MSI)底层环流中心(LLCC)正处於持续加深的深对流东方的边沿, 部分裸露,系统南侧有大片螺旋云带。由SSMIS[注2]系列卫星於昨日23时27分所拍摄的微波扫描影像亦显示, 底层环流中心(LLCC)正处於深对流东方,系统南侧有大片强劲的螺旋云带。

目前定位是根据多频卫星图像以及前面提到的微波图像,定位可信度较高。

系统30节的强度评估是综合于各机构的的德沃夏克强度分析。而今日00時44分的海表风场散射扫描(ASCAT, METOP-B)[注3]亦支援显示了25~30节风速包围着一个清晰的低层环流中心(LLCC)。



高层分析显示系统在一副热带高压脊(这里可理解为赤道反气旋)的北侧,发展环境中度适合:系统西北侧的高空低压限制了流出,垂直风切变有所增强为中等大小(10-20节)。当前TD 12W在副高中低层引导气流下前进。

3丶预报理由

A   此次预报原理与前一次无异

B   预计未来24小时,TD 12W在副高(赤反)的引导下向偏东方向移动。24小时后,由于系统来到两个高压(赤反与新建立的副高)之间的鞍形场,偏东引导气流将减弱。直到48小时后,系统北侧的副高膨胀并将主导系统加速向西前进。强度方向,预计在此预报期内高空低压将逐渐减弱,届时将改善TD 12W的高层流出和垂直风切变,允许系统进一步加强。而热带低压12将在未来小时达到60节的巅峰。

C   在延长预报期上,以及TD 12W继续在北侧副高牵引下向西北偏西方向移动。在靠近中国东部及台湾北岸前,由于陆地的影响12W将逐渐减弱。虽然动态数据模式对系统转向偏西方向移动的预报逐步趋于一致,但对偏西的程度和移动时速的预报仍存在很大的不确定性。由于数据结果的巨大分歧,JTWC采用接近数据共识结果的预报可信度较低。
WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A LARGE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 172327Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY REVEALS THE LLCC JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND AGAIN SHOWS THE STRONG BANDING
FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, A
180044Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE CONFIRMS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW, NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND
SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
LEVELS. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE
STEERING INFLUENCES WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TD 12W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND
CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THE EAST COAST OF CHINA THEREAFTER.
ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN1. 嘉手纳空军基地 - Kadena Air Force Base, 一座位于日本冲绳本岛的驻日美国空军基地
2. SSMI/S - Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder, 中文译名为卫星专用传感器微波成像仪/探测仪, 主要有F-16, F-17 和 F-18。
3. ASCAT - Advanced Scatterometer, 卫星散射仪反演风场, 主要有METOP-A和METOP-B兩顆極軌道衛星。

wusifeng 发表于 2013-8-18 20:15

#6 08.18-06Z

1、供气象专业人士使用
2、6小时概况与分析
      热带风暴12W(潭美)位于嘉手纳空军基地西南方大约366海里处,过去6小时以时速5节向偏东方向移动。多光谱卫星动态图像(MSI)显示:随着系统南侧环流的继续改善以及整体环流结构的扩大,底层环流中心(LLCC)已经被构建中的中心对流覆盖。系统定位是基于MSI图像,可信度较高;而系统35节的强度估计则是根据各机构一致的德法强度分析值。高层分析显示发展环境一般,系统西北侧的高空低压限制了系统的流出并带来中等大小(10-20节)的垂直风切变(VWS)。TS 12W目前正在副高中低层环境引导下向前移动。


3、预报理由
A   此次预报原理与前一次无异
B   预计TS 12W于未来12小时沿副高南侧向偏东方向移动。12小时后,随着系统陷入两高压(南侧赤反与北侧新建立的副高)之间的鞍形场,偏东引导气流将减弱,这将允许12W在未来12-36小时缓慢偏北移动。36小时后,系统北侧的副高膨胀并将主导系统加速向西前进。强度方向,预计在此预报期内高空低压将逐渐减弱,届时将改善TD 12W的高层流出和垂直风切变,允许系统进一步加强。并在72小时后达到TY级别的巅峰强度。
C   在延长预报期上,预计TS 12W继续在北侧副高牵引下向西北偏西方向移动。在靠近中国东部及台湾北岸前,由于陆地的影响12W将逐渐减弱。虽然动态数据模式对系统转向偏西方向移动的预报逐步趋于一致,但对偏西的程度和移动时速的预报仍存在很大的不确定性。由于数据结果的巨大分歧,JTWC采用接近数据共识结果的预报可信度较低。

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME OBSCURED
BY BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DESPITE A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM, HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND INDUCED MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). TS 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE
STEERING INFLUENCES WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW DRIFT NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND
SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND CREATE A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS THROUGH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THE EAST COAST OF CHINA. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN
BACK TO THE WEST, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND
SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

dujuan2003 发表于 2013-8-18 20:56

#7 08.18-12Z

1. 供氣象人員使用

2. 6小時總結和分析
熱帶風暴12W(潭美)集結在嘉手納空軍基地之西南約378浬,在過去6小時,它以01節的速度往東南移動。紅外線(IR)衛星圖像動畫顯示,12W的中心密集雲層區(CDO)正在建立,並覆蓋著其低層環流中心(LLCC);在過去6小時,其南側的對流雲帶組織未見改善;整體而言,系統仍然呈狹長狀。基於以上的紅外線雲圖動畫(LLCC被CDO覆蓋著),我們對其初始定位的信心為低--儘管在過去6小時,系統似乎變得相對穩定。由於各個評估機構以德法估算的強度相同,系統的初始強度仍被評為35節。高空分析指出,系統身在副高(STR)脊線的北面,附近的環境狀況仍為中等,但是已變得更為有利--隨著高空冷渦的西移,儘管中等程度(10-20節)的垂直風切變繼續影響系統,系統的流出仍有加強。由於TS 12W身在兩個脊場之間(分別在其北面及南面),系統幾乎停留不動。

3. 預報理據
A. 和上一報的預報理由相同。
B. 隨著系統東面的副高在明天稍為西伸,預料TS 12W會往東北緩慢移動,而它繼續停滯的可能性仍然存在。預料在24小時後,系統北面的脊場成為主導,並引導12W加速西移。預料在預報期內,隨著高空冷渦繼續遠離和減弱,高空流出變得良好、垂直風切變轉為微弱,使系統有所增強。預料TS 12W會逐漸移近台灣,並在72小時後達到颱風下限。
C. 在延伸預報期內,預料TS 12W繼續沿著其北面的脊場西移;72小時後,受到台灣北部沿岸的地形因素影響,系統會開始減弱;其後系統會在華東登陸,並逐漸消散。儘管各個數值模式有著良好的共識,皆表示系統會朝逆時針方向移動,並出現西折路徑,可是它們對其西折幅度和速度有著很大的分歧。基於以上的巨大分歧,我們對目前預測(與各個模式的共識相近)的信心為低。
WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY A
BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, HAS RETAINED AN
ELONGATED STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CDO FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS)
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TS 12W IS QUASISTATIONARY AS IT IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 24,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TS 12W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
AND FILL CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 12W IS EXPECTED
TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT TAU 72, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THEN EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO THE EAST
COAST OF CHINA WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN
BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

wusifeng 发表于 2013-8-19 08:47

#8 08.18-18Z

1、供气象专业人士使用
2、6小时概况与分析
      热带风暴(TS)12W(潭美)位于嘉手纳空军基地偏南方大约402海里的海面上,过去6小时以时速3节向西南方向移动。红外增强动态卫星图像(EIR)显示中心密集对流层正在扩大,底层环流中心(LLCC)被其覆盖。最新的181455Z OSCAT扫描表明LLCC在相对微弱的引导气流下向南偏置。来自 PGTW和RJTD的德法分析表明系统强度范围为35-45节,当前强度评价则取其均值40节,前面提到的OSCAT扫描也支持这一强度估计。高层分析显示TS 12W的赤向流出通道保持良好,西北侧的高空冷涡(TUTT CELL)开始打开并增强它的极向通道。系统北侧的垂直风切变(VWS)维持中等(15-20节),但随着高空冷涡向西移动,风切有减弱的趋势。


3、预报理由
A   此次预报原理与前一次无异
B   在TS 12W东侧新建的副热带高压(STR)的作用下,预计它将转向东北方向移动,到24小时后此高压将主导系统向西移动。随后高层环境的改善将允许12W增强至75节(72小时后),随后系统由于台湾北部陆地的影响而减弱。
C   在延长预报期,预计系统在北侧副高的引导下继续向西移动,在登陆中国(84小时后)前,强度维持。虽然动态数据模式对系统转向偏西方向移动的预报保持高度一致,但随着系统过去12小时变得稳定,数据对偏西的程度和移动时速的预报仍存在很大的不确定性,由于数据结果的巨大分歧,JTWC采用接近数据共识结果的预报可信度较低。

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS. A RECENT 181455Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD IN A RELATIVELY POOR
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS VIGOROUS, WITH A TUTT CELL DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS
12W STARTING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) FROM THE NORTH BUT
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECREASING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS AS THE TUTT
CELL TRACKS WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF
TS 12W. BY TAU 24 A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THE
STEERING PATTERN, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME LAND INFLUENCE WITH TAIWAN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND AROUND TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL WITH CHINA AROUND TAU
84. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THIS LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

唐明皇1 发表于 2013-8-19 11:44

#9

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS THEY BUILD TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE
PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKLY
QUASI-STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT TS 12W HAS
STARTED A SLOW TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST HAS STARTED TO RE-BUILD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS THE DOMINANT
SUPPORT FOR THE VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, DISTANCING ITSELF FROM TS
12W, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 CELSIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR. BY TAU 24 A STR LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CHINA WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE THE STEERING INFLUENCE,
TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SOME LAND INFLUENCE WITH TAIWAN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND AROUND TAU 60, LEADING TO A FLATTENING OF
THE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A
WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA, WITH A RAPID WEAKENING
THEREAFTER DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE
WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND
SPEED OF THE TURN AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

1.气象研究者专用
2.6小时总结与分析
热带风暴12W(潭美)现在大致位于嘉手纳空军基地南部420英里处。在最近的6小时以3海里/时的速度向南方移动,微博图像扫描仪显示现时的对流的发展从南部边缘向LLCC靠近。LLCC的位置在过去六小时更加确定。虽然系统仍然在现在的环境中打转,但12W已经开始慢慢的在副高的影响下转向东。上层的分析条件继续表明条件有利于这个系统。但是一道高空槽继续向西北方向移动,将12W甩在后面。12W拥有较微小的极向流出,现时系统所在的位置的海水温度可以维持系统进一步发展(29-30℃)
3.预报理由
1.对先前做出的预报没有改变
2.热带风暴12W将会在副热带高压的影响下转向东北。在24小时预报时效内,覆盖中国东部的副热带高压是影响路径的首要因素,将系统拖向西部。在72小时内,加强的上层支持将会让系统增强至75KT。在60小时内,当系统移向台湾北部时或许对台湾的陆地有影响。台湾地形影响令 60-72小时后潭美增强速度减慢
在延伸期,热带风暴12W将继续沿着副高南部边缘走向西北。强度将在72小时后登陆中国时迅速减弱。扫描信息显示在此之后系统会因受到地面摩擦的因素影响减弱。
   虽然动力指导模型对系统再次折向西部有信心,但是仍然对系统转向的程度与速度有很大的不确定性。基于大范围的预报,预报接近于MULTI模型且信心低。
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