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[报文翻译] 2011-09号"梅花"台风(11W.Muifa)之JTWC预报理由翻译帖

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热带风暴

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发表于 2011-7-26 11:10 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
台风论坛梅花分析文章汇总:
台风梅花回顾--1109号梅花台风路径与强度初探
对这次梅花EC形势场预测误差分析可能的改进方法
从ISO角度推导梅花路径数值预测的系统偏差
梅花的路径与环流形势的相互作用——梅花路径大解密!  
1109号超强台风“梅花”回顾片(发布)
2011-09号"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)深度追击
重要热带气旋每日综述与展望——1109梅花(Muifa)
1109号"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)之JTWC预报理由翻译帖






鉴于台风梅花可能对我国有重大影响,开贴进行该热带气旋的JTWC预报理由翻译。

欢迎各位读者成为翻译者,每翻译一贴加贡献值5和威望5
有意参与翻译的,直接在本贴回帖即可。

翻译统筹表:
Prognostic Reasoning 报数
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#1- TCFA
空中急流
1
#2-remarks
lawrance
2
#3-reasoning 26日早11点
y4t7sds12
3
#4-remarks 26日晚5点
typhoonfreak
4
#5-reasoning
yangzhe1997
5
#6-remarks
忧郁的千羽玄武
6
#7-reasoning 27日早11点
yangzhe1997
7
#8-remarks 27日晚5点
y4t7sds12
8
#9-reasoning 27日晚11点
yangzhe1997
9
#10-remarks 28日早5点
lan0609
10
#11-reasoning 28日早11点
冬腌菜
11
#12-remarks 28日晚5点
lan0609
12
#13-reasoning
冬腌菜
13
#14-remarks
老干部
14
#15-reasoning 29日早11点
冬腌菜
15
#16-remarks
yangzhe1997
16
#17-resoning 29日晚11点
donald240956
17
#18-remarks
冬腌菜
18
#19-reasoning
9615
19
#20-remarks
9615
20
#21-reasoning 30日晚11点
961521
#22-remarks 31日早5点
9615
22
#23-reasoning-31日早11点
9615
23
#24-remarks-31日晚5点
9615
24
#25-reasoning-31日晚11点
9615
25
#26-remarks-1日早5点
vincent614
26
#27-reasoning-1日早11点
冬腌菜
27
#28-remarks-1日晚5点
yangzhe1997
28
#29-reasoning
已定
9615
29
#30-remarks
yangzhe1997
30
#31-reasoning
yangzhe1997
31
#32-remarks
自愚自乐
32
#33-reasoning
自愚自乐
33
#34-reamrks
自愚自乐
34
#35-reasoning
yangzhe1997  
35
#36-remarks
36
337-reasoning
37







-----------------------------
相关链接:
1109"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)追击帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43610
1109"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)机构预报帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43666
1109"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)深度追击帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43676
1109"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)实况帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43690
1109"梅花"台风优质内容收集帖:NIL
1109"梅花"台风(11W,Muifa)吹水、闲聊帖:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=43662
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-26 11:12 | 显示全部楼层

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 242300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1.一个值得注意的热带低压可能在下来的12至24小时内在4.4N ,148.2E到11.4N ,140.4E生成。现有数据不能证明这次的编号的热带低压警告信息发布有效。在该区域内的风速被估计在17-23节。062030Z的卫星图像和气象数据指出环流中心位于4.4N ,148.2E附近。系统正以12节的速度向西移动。
2.要点:以前位于4.7N ,148.3E附近的对流区域现在位于4.4N ,148.2E附近,大约位于密克罗尼西亚群岛西南方280海里的海面上。动态卫星图像指出围绕着低层环流中心的对流正巩固与加强。一张241932Z的SSMIS图像揭示围绕这低层环流中心的深层对流正在聚集。低层环流中心位于在近赤道脊的南方和一只有5-10节垂直风切变的流动性区域。总可降水循环和241200Z的PGTW流线分析显示跨赤道气流进入系统的西半圆。一张几乎要漏掉环流西部的241137ZASCAT过去图像显示15-20节的风在西半圆的大部分区域上空。赤向流出确定下来,进入深层热带对流上部槽的向东北方向的极向流出增加加强。最大持久风力被估计在17-23节。最低的海平面气压被估计在1007毫巴左右。系统在24小时内发展的可能性高。
3.这次警报将会在252300Z重新发出、升级到警告信息或取消。
//
NNNN
WTPN21 PGTW 242300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 148.2E TO 11.4N 140.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 062030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR  4.7N
148.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, MICRONESIA.  ANIMATED SATELLITE  IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  A 241932Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION GATHERING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AS
WELL AS THE 241200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW VIGOROUS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  A NEAR-
MISS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION,  A 241137Z ASCAT PASS, SHOWED
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST IS IMPROVING.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252300Z.
//
NNNN
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发表于 2011-7-26 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
第二报:
Remarks:
        系统25日2100Z时位于6.0N,145.1E附近。 热带低压(TD)11W(11),位于关岛安德森空军基地以南约450海里的海面,在过去六小时内以12节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外云图动画显示一个大的系统正在稳步组织和加强。水汽云图动画显示出完善的赤道方向流出和有改善的极地方向流出。垂直风切变估计为12节,并预计将沿途保持不变。25日1525Z的AMSRE卫星图像显示,虽然深层对流集中在南部的半圆,低层环流仍然缺乏组织,但较之前有所改善。TD11W目前处于在31N,153E附近的反气旋之内的副热带高压脊以南的弱引导气流环境中。反气旋已开始收缩,系统在短期内将有更强的引导作用,但在中期将会有一道强脊在西侧形成,并成为主要的引导机制。目前强度分析结果为30节,是基于PGTW在25日1525Z 的ASCAT扫面得出DVORAK评估来确定的。新的路径预报显示了系统72小时后向极地方向的转向。数值呈现出系统将在东南的反气旋引导下开始向极地方向转向。强度预报依然远高于数值预报而符合气候平均,也就是系统会比动力学预报发展得更好,更连续。
接下来的警报将在260300Z,260900Z,261500Z及262100Z发出。热带低压10W(十)的警报(WTPN31 PGTW)每六小时更新一次。 / /


#2(remarks)REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 6.0N 145.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM THAT IS STEADILY ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSESSED AT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIC ALONG TRACK. A 251525Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS THAT WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHILE STILL LACKING, HAS IMPROVED SINCE PREVIOUS PASSES. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 31N 153E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND WILL HAVE GREATER STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT IN THE MID-RANGE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A 251525Z ASCAT PASS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A POLEWARD BEND AFTER TAU 72. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POLEWARD BEND AS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS STEERING THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM MORE THAN THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND AT THIS POINT OFFERS THE MOST COHERENT SOLUTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
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发表于 2011-7-26 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
第三报
1.气象从业人员专用.
2.过去12小时总结和分析.
  TD11W位于关岛ANDERSEN AFB以南大致450海里,过去6小时大致以时速13kt向西北偏西移动.
多频卫星动画图像显示系统庞大,组织松散.
最新红外图动画显示系统对流爆发,核心云顶冷却迅速.
水汽图动画指出系统拥有良好的赤向流出,而极向流出则在发展之中.
预估垂直风切变大致在12kt左右.
从91GHZ SSMIS可见系统整个深对流增长扎实,而37GHZ图则指出系统底层结构组织一般.
从主观和自动DVORAK分析得到系统目前强度.
11W目前在弱驶流环境中.
PGTW高层流线分析揭示有一反气旋位于LLCC东北偏东约250海里的赤道脊附近,其南端正引导11W.
3.预报理由.
A.预报思想没有改变.
B.11W将沿上述反气旋西侧向西北移动.48小时后,从反气旋西侧发展而来的强脊线将成为系统的主要引导力量,并在72小时后脊线将使系统有一个极向的弯曲之势.
数值预报越来越集中显示系统出现这个极向弯曲之势.
考虑到NOGAPS和GFDN较东的预报,此次作出较西路径的预报.
预测系统强度将比数值预报的更强,与气候学原理一致.
气候学原理比动力学更好地解释当前形势.
系统向西北移动将带来福音,因为它将会从雅浦岛和关岛间穿过.
系统西南面的风场仍会影响雅浦岛,另一方面垂直风切变仍稳定在12kt,而路径上的海面温度超过30度,非常适合发展.
C.72小时后,当11W到达驶流脊线,系统强度将达到顶峰.
数值预报对系统路径越来越一直,但对强度预报仍保守.
基于低风切和高海温,预报系统强度将比数值预报要强.
WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTION AND RAPIDLY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS WELL-ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. A 252042Z 91
GHZ SSMIS REVEALS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION,
BUT THE 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF SUBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE 251200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE APPROXIMATELY 250NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TD 11W IS
CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 11W WILL FOLLOW A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER
TAU 48, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, AND THE RIDGE WILL DRIVE A POLEWARD
BEND AFTER TAU 72. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
REGARDING THE POLEWARD BEND. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS WEST OF
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND AT THIS POINT OFFERS THE MOST
COHERENT SOLUTION. THE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BRINGS GOOD NEWS TO
THE EQUATION, AS IT INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK
BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. WIND FIELDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER WILL
STILL AFFECT YAP, HOWEVER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN STEADY AT
APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE
ALSO HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES.  
   C. TD 11W WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72 AFTER IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT REGARDING TRACK, BUT REMAINS CONSERVATIVE
REGARDING INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON AN EXPECTATION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.//
NNNN
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发表于 2011-7-27 13:02 | 显示全部楼层
第四报:
Remarks:
26日09时(UTC)位置为8.4N 142.8E。
热带低气压11W,集结在关岛安德鲁斯空军基地西南偏南约350海哩,在过去6小时,系统移速加快,以时速18kts向西北移动。
多光谱卫星影像动画显示,系统的中心对流继续组织和巩固。
现时的定位根据上述的动画所订出,而强度方面,
PGTW,KNES及RJTD的德法分析显示强度为25-35kts。

高层分析显示11w正处於高度分流的环境中,并有轻微的东向垂直风切。
11w正沿位於其东北偏东方近赤道脊的西沿移动。
预料未来48小时移动方向不变。
其後,在其西侧发展的强脊线将引导系统向偏北方向移动。
在良好的环境下,11w将稳定地増强,96小时後强度为75kts。

各数值模型预报的路经均颇一致,但强度则较保守。
由於凤切较低及水温颇高,本预报所作的强度预报高於平均值。

后续警报将于UTC26日15时丶21时,27日3时丶9时发出。  
有关洛坦(10w)的消息,请参阅6小时更新一次的预报。

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 142.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS ACCELERATED AND
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W
IS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THIS COURSE UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWHICH, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL ASSUME STEERING, INITIATING A POLEWARD MOTION.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT REGARDING TRACK, BUT REMAINS CONSERVATIVE
REGARDING INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMANS ABOVE GUIDANCE
BASED ON AN EXPECTATION OF LOW VWS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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资料整理风语者

发表于 2011-7-27 18:18 | 显示全部楼层
第五报:
Reasoning:
1。给从事气象专业的人员。
2。 12小时总结和分析。
A.热带低压(TD)11W(11)位于关岛安德森空军基地西南偏南约320海里的海面,在过去六小时内以12节的速度向西北方向移动。红外云图动画显示,该系统维持其中央深层对流活动,并继续组织和巩固。初始位置度是根据上述云图动画确定,初始强度是基于PGTW,KNES的德沃夏克分析法评估结果——RJTD范围为25到35节。高层分析表明,TD 11W处于强辐散、轻微向东垂直风切变(VWS)的环境中。水汽云图动画显示系统北方的热带对流层上部槽和东部的脊线提供高效的流出渠道,流出情况良好。目前该系统沿着赤道反气旋西缘向东北东方向移动。
3。预报根据。
A.预报原因没有改变。
B. 48小时内TD 11W将继续按上述的的情况行进,之后,系统西侧将会建立一道强脊带来引导气流的改变,转为开始向北运动。低VWS和高海温的环境将继续维持,有利于进一步的增强。
C.72小时后,TD 11W受到西北方东移的中纬度槽的影响转为东北方向移动。96小时后,该系统行进至西脊时将达到巅峰——75节。数值预报指导一致性较差,分歧几乎为90度,WBAR预报一直向西运动。 在集合的右侧,NOGAPS认为将会出现急转的情况。这个路径预报是在集合中较为折中,与其他数值较为一致,同时抵消WBAR不现实的路径。NNNN
#5(reasoning)
WDPN32 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 05// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH- WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH OVER ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PROVIDE EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COURSE UP TO TAU 48, AFTER WHICH, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ASSUME STEERING, INITIATING A POLEWARD MOTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - LOW VWS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND ARE SPREAD AT ALMOST 90 DEGREES WITH WBAR FAVORING A STRAIGHT WESTWARD MOTION. NOGAPS FAVORS A TIGHT RECURVATURE SCENARIO TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR\'S UNREALISTIC TRACK.// NNNN

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发表于 2011-7-28 01:34 | 显示全部楼层
第六报:
Remarks:
系统26日2100Z时位于9.7N 141.0E附近。 热带低压(TD)11W(11)位于关岛安德森空军基地西南偏南约350海里的海面,在过去六小时以11节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外卫星云图动画显示,在过去12小时内,低层环流中心(LLCC)周围的对流组织缓慢。在过去几个小时,一条东西走向粗长的对流带很好地提升了系统的强度和覆盖了LLCC的南侧。26/1848Z的85 GHZ SSMI扫面显示LLCC西北边缘的对流连同大而支离破碎的云带很好地替换了系统的南部。定位是根据上述的云图进行的,强度范围为25到30节,是PGTW,KNES,RJTD的DVORAK强度分析法评估得到的。高层的分析表明,TD 11W位于10-20节的垂直风切变下一个良好的辐散区。目前,TD 11W由位于其东方的低-中层高压脊的西南缘引导。在西脊被激发发展为反气旋带来更多偏北份量之前,未来24到36小时内这个脊将继续引导向西北偏西方向移动。48小时后,11W将开始沿着脊的西北缘开始向东转向。在120小时左右,这个脊会崩溃,在11W东北方向的脊将开始给其带去更多向西的推力。 WBAR和EGRR继续支持比其他数值预报更强大,位置更西的赤道反气旋。尽管差距还是相当大,大多数的数值对于36到48小时后转向东北方向移动都比较一致。本报强度预报与前一报较为相似,TD 11W将在较为有利的环境下以气候平均值的速度增强。 接下来的警报将会在270300Z,270900Z,271500Z及272100Z发出。参考热带风暴10W(洛坦)的的警报(WTPN31PGTW)每六小时更新一次。/ /
#6(remarks)
REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 141.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SLOW ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 26/1848Z 85 GHZ SSMI SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC ALONG WITH THE LARGE, FRAGMENTED BAND DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY, AND INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 11W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AN INDUCED ANTICYCLONE, INCREASING STEERING INFLUENCE NORTHWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS, 11W WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, A MORE INFLUENTIAL STEERING RIDGE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MAY BEGIN TO GIVE 11W A MORE WESTERLY PUSH NEAR TAU 120. WBAR AND EGRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR A STRONGER NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE AND LIE WELL WEST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURVING 11W TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER TAU 36 TO 48, ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS STILL FAIRLY LARGE. INTENSITY ON THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH A GENERAL INCREASE EXPECTED AS TD 11W ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
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资料整理风语者

发表于 2011-7-28 12:58 | 显示全部楼层
1.气象从业者专用
2.12小时总结与分析
A.热带风暴11W在安德森空军基地的偏西方大约455海里的海面上,在过去6小时内,以每小时15海里的速度向西北西方向移动。动画多光谱云图显示系统LLCC的深对流流出增加,一个27/2033Z 91 GHZ SSMIS显示对流正在包围LLCC的西南象限。这个图象也显示了在LLCC的南侧也有对流发展。初始位置是基于动画多光谱云图,但是对微波扫表定位的信心较低。强度是基于RJTW,PGTW,KNES的德法分析出的30——35海里每小时。热带风暴11W的南部由于有着反气旋,导致有中度的垂直风切变(20——25海里每小时),而动画水汽云图显示,系统有着良好的赤向流出,并且极向流出也在改善之中。
3.预报理由、
A.预报理由没有显著变化
B.热带风暴11W将沿着向西延伸的东部赤反。预计在24——36小时内,系统将沿着西——西北方向移动。在48小时内,副高西脊将东移减退。并且和一个西撤减弱的中纬度堪察加冷涡合并,有一系列的中纬低压系统沿着副高北侧运行。
C.当72小时后,11W将向北移动,但副高将加强西伸,以至于11W西折。强度由于风切的变小和流出的改善,而增加。热带风暴11W在120小时还有增强的机会由于有利的条件。数值预报的预报将稍微偏东,而JTWC则偏西。
WDPN32 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT  15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL  OUTFLOW. A 27/2033Z 91 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING  WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE  LLCC. THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LARGE FORMATIVE BAND OF CONVECTION  WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MSI  AND EXTRAPOLATED MICROWAVE DATA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,  AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES  TS 11W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF  MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD  OUTFLOW.  3. FORECAST REASONING.    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.    B. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW  TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO  36 HOURS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS  EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETREAT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48  HOURS. THIS WESTWARD RETREAT IS THE RESULT OF A RETROGRADING MID- LATITUDE LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MERGING WITH A  SERIES OF WEAKER MID-LATITUDE LOWS RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN  PERIPHERY OF THE STR.     C. AS THE STR RETREATS WESTWARD, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING  NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72 UNTIL A STRONG STR TO THE EAST BUILDS AND  BEGINS TO TURN 11W TO THE WEST. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  INCREASE AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. TS 11W HAS THE  POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 120 DUE TO  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE  IN POOR AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF  CONSENSUS AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN




第7報:
Reasoning:
1.給從事氣象專業人員

2.過去12小時的簡述與分析

熱帶性低氣壓(11W)大致位於關島西南方約260海浬的地方,
過去6小時以每小時7節的速度向西北進行
多頻掃瞄雲圖動畫(MSI)資料顯示,其LLCC因為對流雲團向西以及向北方向切離而幾乎完全外露,
LLCC南側一條較為寬闊的對流雲帶在過去數小時內強度也逐漸減弱,覆蓋面積縮小
由一張26/2227Z 91 GHZ SSMIS雲圖也顯示出一個外露的LLCC,西北側的對流正在切離,
南側則有一條寬廣的輻合對流雲帶存在
定位依據MSI資料,強度估計則是依據PGTW,KENS以及RJTD的DVORAK法則評估結果,
大約在25~30Kts間,
高層大氣分析指出TD-11W位於一個具有10~20Kts的垂直風切區域中,
其引導力量分別來自於南側較弱的赤道反氣旋高壓以及北側副熱帶高壓,略呈牽制狀態

3.預報理由

A.
預報原因沒有做出變更

B.
TD-11W預估在未來36小時內將維持現有的熱帶低壓或是較弱的熱帶風暴強度,
並且在東側以及北側的延伸高壓脊引導下向西北西方向移動
未來24~26小時內高壓脊的強度以及型態將大致不變,引導TD-11W走向西北西
直到11W北側的高壓脊因為中層槽線向南延伸而減弱為止
大約48小時後,TD-11W將逐漸轉向偏北方向前進,並且在繞過高壓範圍西端後向東偏轉
高壓脊的減退時間點具有高度的不確定性,系集模式的預估結果相當分歧,
當它轉向偏北方向進行時,可望進入較理想的風切環境內,強度有逐漸增強的趨勢

C.
72小時後,TD-11W預估將維持偏北或偏東北方向移動,
但仍須觀察約120小時後系統東側高壓脊的情況,
不排除有轉向較為偏西移動的機會,模式系集對此分歧度很大,
WBAR預估路徑轉向偏西,GFS模式稍早的結果則是一路北上,
未來這些分歧的延伸路徑預報以及WBAR的預測結果之間應該會逐漸的趨於一致
WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
FULLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A
BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC HAS DECREASED
IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A
26/2227Z 91 GHZ SSMIS ALSO SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A LARGER
CONVERGENT BAND WELL TO THE SOUTH.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE.  TD
11W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NEAR
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS ALSO BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THESE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER 11W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF 11W DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER TAU 48 AND THEN EASTERLY AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR RETREATS WESTWARD.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE EROSION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT BEGINS TRACKING
NORTHWARD INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE POTENTIALLY TAKING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE STR BUILDING AROUND TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH WBAR TRACKING
ALMOST DUE WEST AND GFS TRACKING NORTHWARD AT EARLIER TAUS. THIS
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR WBAR AND IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE REMAINING
TRACK GUIDANCE. TRACK.//
NNNN
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发表于 2011-7-28 18:10 | 显示全部楼层

#8 REMARKS

第8报:
世界时21日17时的位置在10.7N,140.5E
动画多光谱云图显示了一个部分裸露的LLCC,270348Z AMSU微波扫描显示有低云云带被卷入LLCC。目前的定位是基于动画多普勒云图,有着良好的信心。强度是基于KNES, PGTW的德法分析出的25——30海里/每小时。上层分析表明,在系统的南部,有着温和的风切,为20——25海里/每小时。目前11W沿着赤反的延伸脊线向西北方向移动,预计在未来36——48小时依然向西北方向移动。由于深化的中纬度槽,副高将减弱东退,导致了11W向东北方向移动。当海槽加强时,11W应该以更快的速度向北方向移动,这样才有良好的上层环境。数值模式在转北的时间顺序上有分歧,所以后期的路径有着很大的不确定性。
11W的海浪最高将达到12英尺。
下一次警告将在世界时的272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z
请参阅热带风暴洛坦(08W)的警告(WTPN31 PGTW)。它也将在每6小时更新一次。
270900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 140.5E.   
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BACK OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270348Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAKS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AND AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 25 KNOTS. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW TD 11W TO TURN POLEWARD AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD. TD 11W SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE DIGGING TROUGH.THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD, SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.   
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.   
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.   
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)   
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.   
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发表于 2011-7-29 12:27 | 显示全部楼层
第9报:
WDPN32 PGTW 271500世界时7月27日15时。
MSGID/GENADMIN/珍珠港预报基地/JTWC//
SUBJ/热带低气压(TD)11W预报理由,9报报文:
1、    气象从业者专用
2、    12小时总结与分析:
A、热带低气压(11W)大约位于关岛,安德森空军基地西南西大约335海里,在过去的六个小时内一直采取西北西方向的路径以13海里每小时的速度前进。动态红外卫星图像和27日11时53分的ZAMSU微波图像显示一个组织松散的低层环流中心(LLCC),并有一个深层对流爆发云带转移向气旋的西北面。气旋初始位置是基于红外图像和LLCC确定的,最初的强度基于德沃夏克PGTW分析法确定,RJTD为25到30节。上层气流分析显示11    W正位于一个副高脊线较弱的位置,该位置的垂直风切变(VWS)为温和的高空风切变,大约20到30节。
3、    预报理由和预报:
a、    预测没有改变。
b、    11W在接下来的24—36小时内有可能沿着西部外围的低中层脊线而转向,较强的副热带高压脊将会削弱其强度,但由于一道西风槽的作用,TD11W有可能转向北。11W预计将逐渐增强,因为它所处的位置有一个较有利于它发展的气流环境。数值模型显示其有可能在受到副高削弱之前转向北。所以其路径有一定的不确定性。
c、    在未来72小时内,11W预计将在减弱的副高的影响下转向东北,未来的96小时内,系统转向的可能性将继续增大。NOGAP和GFS同样显示其采取的路径将转向东北。


WDPN32 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 09// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED  (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271153Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN  UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE BAND OF  DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS  BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY  WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM  25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED  BENEATH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK  DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  (VWS).  3. FORECAST REASONING.    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.   
B. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A  LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36  HOURS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH SHOULD THEN  BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW TD  11W TO TURN POLEWARD. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS  IT TRACKS UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN  INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE  DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR  AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD, SO THERE IS SOME  UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.   
C. AROUND TAU 72, TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD UNDER  THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS  BEGINNING AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TO  NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-BUILDS. BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS ARE NOW  SHOWING THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD.// NNNN
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